P M R L A T E S T R E P O R T Polish Market Review Ltd Market Intelligence for Business Professionals Poland 2002 2005 Midyear Summary Due out in September 2002 Selected findings of the report The Poland Economic Review Forecasts Reports are excellent easy to use compilations of data and forecasts regarding the Polish economy They are useful not only for internal strategic plannning within the bank s own structures but also for managers who monitor its activities from outside Poland 1 Very slow GDP growth continued during the first half of 2002 GDP growth in 2002 will be about 1 with consumption increasing by about 2 3 and investments diminishing GDP increases of 3 7 are forecast for 2003 and 5 2 for 2004 1 The first half of 2002 continued to be successful regarding inflation The recorded in July 2002 CPI figure of 1 3 was the lowest ever since the beginning of the transformation process The CPI inflation rate during the years 2002 2006 will oscillate at around 4 This will allow for gradual deviation from the NBP policy of extremely high real interest rates 1 In the first half of 2002 the Monetary Policy Council continued interest rates reductions After the August Monetary Policy Council meeting intervention rate stood at 8 0 while lombard and discount rates at 10 5 and 9 0 respectively Senior Vice President Citigroup 1 A significant downturn in entrepreneur s views on short term and medium term economic growth led to a drop in investments Quarterly investment growth will start midyear 2002 and grow slowly In 2002 2006 average investment growth dynamics of over 7 is expected To learn more about our publications please visit our website at 1 Imports and exports will increase only slightly in the year 2002 1 3 This will be the result of both weak foreign as well as domestic demand 1 Unemployment in Poland which reached 17 4 at the end of July 2002 will remain high oscillating around 18 in the years 2002 2006 1 Following an increase in the budget deficit to 5 of GDP this deficit will be reduced to 3 of GDP in the years 2003 2005 ukasz Bald President CEO GE Housing Bank We found Poland 2001 2005 Economic Review Forecasts to be very helpful in examining the Polish market I would recommend the report to anyone Ron Malak http www polishmarket com QUESTIONS ABOUT ORDERING Contact our sales department at 48 12 410 21 10 or e mail us at sales polishmarket com if you have any questions Contents Executive summary Key sector overview Political outlook Comments on main political events in the first seven months of 2002 focus on the overall social climate in Poland and the popularity of the government s policies the conflict between the government and the National Bank of Poland and the new finance minister s plans EU accession update Progress of preparations for EU accession after the first seven months of 2002 in terms of three main issues Poland s readiness after acceleration of negotiations in the first half of 2002 support for accession among businesses and the Polish people EU readiness for Poland s accession progress of EU institutional reform and CAP reform support for enlargement among EU businesses and citizens Poland s expected accession date Implications of accession for Poland s economic growth Economic outlook Latest analysis of economic situation in Poland to August 2002 with forecasts through 2005 includes detailed analysis of major economic indicators such as GDP growth industrial production unemployment salaries consumer prices producer prices exchange rates discount rates money supply exports imports current account deficit value of FDIs The analysis will comprise the following parts an analysis of the factors determining Poland s macroeconomic situation in 2002 2005 conditions for economic growth in Poland in 2002 2005 projection of Poland s development 2002 2005 regional economic outlook Economic situation after the first seven months of 2002 in the following sectors industry automotive electrical machinery apparatus construction food textiles chemicals machinery and equipment The analysis will comprise the following parts analysis of the events of the first seven months of 2002 affecting the situation in various sectors analysis of the economic situation by sector changes in output investment outlays prices and profitability number of businesses Privatisation update Privatisation progress in the January July 2002 period in Poland privatisation plans accepted or under government discussion in the first six months of 2002 in the following sectors alcoholic beverages banking chemicals energy fuels gas military mining pharmaceuticals steel and tobacco Business environment Labour market impact of recession on the labour market in Poland after the first seven months of 2002 average salaries of top management in production finance sales and marketing average salaries of managers specialists and line workers comments on changes to the labour code Costs of labour in Poland in comparison with other CEE and EU countries Government policy towards foreign investors analysis of changes in government policy towards foreign investors in 2002 with special focus on the future of Special Economic Zones system of investment incentives for foreign investors currently in place Corruption Statistical data sheet Summary of data after the first six months of 2002 REPORT ORDER FORM Please send me Poland 2002 2005 Midyear Summary PDF version delivered by e mail 600 480 CD version copiable format 670 536 Printed copy Poland 625 500 Printed copy All other countries 675 540 Order by 16th September 2002 and receive a 20 discount Report will be invoiced in PLN at current exchange rate Polish clients need to add 22 VAT Foreign clients will be invoiced in EURO Printed copies are delivered by courier PLEASE FILL IN THE FOLLOWING Mr SELECT FORM OF PAYMENT MONEY TRANSFER TO Mrs Polish Market Review Sp z o o Last Name Bank BPH IV O w Krakowie 31 015 Krak w ul Pijarska 1 First Name Initials Account number 10601389 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