CURRENT HISTORY September 2004 The China Europe relationship will continue to grow and develop at a steady pace Over time it will become a new axis in world affairs and will serve as a source of stability in a volatile world China and Europe The Emerging Axis DAVID SHAMBAUGH O ne of the most important yet least appreciated developments in world affairs in recent years has been the dramatic growth in ties between China and Europe Not only are all European nations individually deepening their links with China but the European Union is itself collectively engaging the People s Republic The EU has taken the lead in conceptualizing and implementing a broadbased strategy to further ties and cooperate in a wide range of areas The breadth and depth of EuropeChina relations are impressive and the global importance of the relationship ranks it as an emerging axis in world affairs While this is appreciated in Asia and Europe the United States has been slow to recognize what is transpiring in the EU China relationship and its significance in the emerging global order nomic reforms began in China China Europe trade has grown fortyfold According to Chinese statistics the EU is also the largest foreign supplier of technology and equipment to China and one of the top foreign direct investors in China The EU estimates that the total stock of European foreign direct investment in China amounts to more than 35 billion to date China and the EU also participate in a number of joint technology projects including the European Galileo satellite navigation program and the world s largest cooperative science and technology research project the EU China Framework Program In the political realm Chinese leaders hold regular meetings with European heads of state and with EU officials Just in the first six months of 2004 Chinese President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao toured Europe Hu and Wen also visited in the fall of 2003 During the same period China played host to a number of European and EU leaders including European Commission President Romano Prodi Since 1997 an annual EU China summit has rotated between Brussels and Beijing This high level of interaction between the two sides has resulted in a number of substantive agreements In the military and strategic domain each side has designated the other as a strategic partner Many individual European states also have variant types of such partnerships with China While no military exchanges have taken place yet between the EU and China plans are on the drawing board to begin such exchanges to supplement what individual European nations have under way with the People s Liberation Army PLA Already this year French and British naval ships have held joint search and rescue exercises with China s navy both firsts in military to military TOWARD STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP The burgeoning growth in European Chinese relations is apparent in many spheres and in recent years has developed into a comprehensive and multidimensional relationship even strategic partnership If current trade growth continues for the second half of the year the EU and China will become each other s leading trading partner in 2004 The 44 percent growth in trade for the first half of 2004 stunningly surpassed the impressive 25 percent rate achieved in 2003 In 2003 Chinese customs statistics indicate total trade of 125 billion while EU figures are higher at 135 billion euros or 165 billion at year end exchange rates Since 1978 when ecoDAVID SHAMBAUGH a professor of political science and international affairs and director of the China policy program at George Washington University is a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Current History contributing editor 243 244 CURRENT HISTORY September 2004 exchanges Britain has run a training program for PLA personnel engaged in international peacekeeping operations something in which China is becoming increasingly involved Both the French and British governments conduct an annual strategic dialogue with Chinese civilian and military security experts and Chinese military officers are being trained in German French and British military staff colleges The addition of the 10 new East European members into the EU opens the possibility of more military exchanges with these nations China quietly initiated a dialogue with NATO last year THE ARMS EMBARGO IMBROGLIO China also appears eager to purchase arms and defense technologies from Europe but these have been embargoed since 1989 following Beijing s crackdown on the pro democracy movement in Tiananmen Square Over the past year China has brought intense pressure to bear on the EU to lift the embargo and in return the United States has exerted equal pressure to maintain it As a result Europe has been caught in the middle of an increasingly sensitive diplomatic imbroglio Lifting the embargo would require unanimous agreement among EU member states EU officials estimate that 16 of the 25 member states currently favor lifting the embargo led by France Italy Spain and Germany while Denmark Sweden Norway Ireland Portugal Poland and perhaps one or two other new East European members oppose lifting it The United Kingdom and the Netherlands have thus far been studiously neutral on the issue although both will be key to swinging the balance given Britain s prestige and the fact that the Dutch hold the rotating presidency of the EU and thus are in a position to drive and shape the debate All European nations appear to agree that the embargo is anachronistic given the overall health of Sino European relations and the agreement on a strategic partnership yet they also are sensitive to three sets of concerns The first is human rights Europe implemented the embargo in 1989 in reaction to the Chinese military s killing of civilians and subsequent draconian crackdown on dissent EU member states still opposed to lifting the embargo principally Ireland and the Nordic countries argue that even though the situation has improved greatly since 1989 human rights remain a major concern in China They want tangible improvement to occur before the embargo is lifted The EU too has repeatedly reminded the Chinese in high level meetings over the past year that it seeks substantial progress on the ground particularly in the areas of political civil and religious rights including in Tibet The EU cites China s imprisonment of political and religious dissidents as well as the failure of its parliament the National People
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