An asset but not a model Turkey the EU and the wider Middle East 1 A success story for EU foreign policy but what next Many politicians and commentators tend to disparage the EU s nascent foreign policy They should travel to Turkey It is true that the EU has a poor record in making its mark on global crises But its ability to exert influence in countries wishing to join the EU has been nothing short of revolutionary In recent years successive Turkish governments and especially the new AKP government led by Recep Tayyip Erdog an have passed rafts of reform packages These reforms have brought Turkey into line with the EU s exacting Copenhagen membership criteria on democracy and human rights The prospect of EU accession has made issues that had been political taboos for decades such as the role of the army in Turkish politics suddenly ripe for reform This form of regime change EUstyle is cheap voluntary and hence long lasting If enlargement is by far the EU s most successful foreign policy tool then Turkey could be the EU s biggest success in foreign affairs At the December European Council the heads of state and government will have to decide whether and when to open accession talks with Turkey EU leaders are rightly mindful of public opposition and the effects that Turkey s membership could have on the Union s cohesion and capacity to act But the best way for the EU to consolidate and anchor Turkey s democratisation process is by giving Turkey the green light to start accession negotiations Moreover EU leaders should make that choice in a spirit of self confidence and optimism not resignation and dejection It would be a triumph of EU foreign policy to welcome a successful Turkey which has laid to rest the ghosts of military authoritarianism and chronic economic instability Europeans should say loudly and repeatedly that no Centre for European Reform 29 Tufton Street London SW1P 3QL UK one else has managed to transform in a peaceful and deliberate manner the political system of a country as large and complex as Turkey From its inception the EU s international approach has contrasted sharply with that of the US The preferred US method for dealing with foreign countries is direct initially awe inspiring and heavily military in nature The downside of this type of engagement is that it is also mostly short term superficial and expensive The EU s approach is the opposite indirect underwhelming and economic legal in nature But the benefits are that EU foreign policy is long term structural and comparatively cheap As Mark Leonard the Director of the Foreign Policy Centre has rightly pointed out upon entering the EU s sphere of influence countries are changed for ever 1 The EU s track record in dealing with the instability and insecurity in its backyard is markedly more impressive than that of the US Just compare the success that the EU has had in securing the transitions 1 Mark Leonard in central and eastern Europe and in The road to a cool goading Turkey to go down that path Europa New as well with the failure of US policies Statesman June to achieve lasting stability in 16th 2003 Colombia or Peru Hence European leaders and citizens should be proud that Turkey is becoming the latest and most impressive example of the EU wielding soft power the ability to shape international events by attraction rather than coercion The EU has successfully changed critical aspects of Turkey s political and legal systems in a way that the US despite having a long and intimate relationship with Ankara has never managed to do It is a great pity that so few Europeans are willing to describe and sell the EU Turkey relationship as a geostrategic success story for the EU and a vindication of its distinctive foreign policy style T 00 44 20 7233 1199 F 00 44 20 7233 1117 info cer org uk www cer org uk 2 Instead the debate has concentrated on whether Turkey is really European whether it is ready to start accession talks and what would be the consequences for the EU s institutions budget and policies This narrow debate on the merits and costs of Turkey s eventual membership is necessary But many larger questions loom such as what kind of club should the EU be and where are the borders of Europe If Turkey moves towards membership should Ukraine Belarus and others have a chance to join too And if all these countries join would an inner core of countries committed to deeper integration be necessary and desirable 2 Michael Emerson and Nathalie Tocci Integrating EU and Turkish Foreign Policy CEPS Turkey in Europe Monitor July 7th 2004 There are also questions relating to Turkey s impact on EU policies towards the wider Middle East Do the member states and Turkey have similar or at least compatible interests and objectives in the region How would Turkey s complex ties with the Arab Middle East Iran and Israel affect EU policies and influence Is Turkey really a bridge between East and West and what does that mean in concrete terms Would EU membership for Turkey emphatically repudiate the spectre of a clash of civilisations as Michael Emerson and Nathalie Tocci of CEPS and many others with them have suggested 2 And what about the claims that Turkey a democratising country with a Muslim population and a moderate but pro Islamic government is an inspiring model for the progressive democratisation of the wider Middle East Graham Fuller a US academic has 3 Graham Fuller Turkey s expressed the view of many Strategic Model Myths and especially Americans when he Realities The Washington argued that today s Turkey has truly become a model for the Quarterly 2004 Muslim world 3 This essay will look at these two sets of broader questions first analysing the consequences of Turkey s accession for EU policies in the wider Middle East and then probing the Turkey as a bridge or model arguments It will argue that Turkey is an asset for the EU but not a model for the democratisation of the wider Middle East It will conclude with recommendations for policy makers in Turkey and the rest of Europe 2 The macro impact of Turkey s accession No one can say for certain how once inside the EU Turkey will influence EU policy on the Middle East EU accession is probably ten years away if not longer In that period EU and Turkish foreign policy as well as the Middle East itself are bound to change in unpredictable ways Therefore the debate should focus on Turkey s influence on EU Middle East policy in the pre accession phase With its large population
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