KYRGYZSTAN A FALTERING STATE Asia Report N 109 16 December 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i INTRODUCTION 1 I II THE POLITICAL CONTEXT 2 III CHALLENGES TO STABILITY 4 A B C D THE REDISTRIBUTION OF PROPERTY 4 1 The Karasuu Bazaar 4 2 The Karakeche Coal Mines 7 3 Land 9 THE DOWNFALL OF THE REVOLUTIONARIES AND THE NEW OPPOSITION 10 1 The Removal of Beknazarov 10 2 The removal of other Cabinet members 12 3 Strains within the Tandem 12 THE PRISON CRISIS 13 1 The killing of MP Akmatbayev 13 2 Demonstrations in Bishkek 14 3 Reactions 14 LAW ENFORCEMENT AND CRIME 16 IV INTERNATIONAL ISSUES 18 A B C V UZBEKISTAN 18 RUSSIA AND THE U S 20 KAZAKHSTAN 20 CONCLUSION 22 APPENDICES A MAP OF KYRGYZSTAN 23 B KEY FIGURES MENTIONED IN THE REPORT 24 C ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP 26 D CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA 27 E CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES 30 Asia Report N 109 16 December 2005 KYRGYZSTAN A FALTERING STATE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Kyrgyzstan s post revolution government lurches from crisis to crisis in the face of worsening political violence prison revolts serious property disputes and popular disillusion There is a growing sense that it is barely less corrupt than its predecessor and perhaps less competent The security services are slipping out of government control raising the prospect of more chaos and criminality If Kyrgyzstan is not to become a failed state whose fate reinforces the views of its neighbours that the path to stability lies not in democracy but in dictatorship the U S European Union and other donors need to give the shaky government more political and financial backing people from the countryside to Bishkek leading to worsening tensions with city dwellers and the government Endemic problems in prisons including a cash strapped administration deteriorating infrastructure and increasingly harsh conditions sparked revolts in October 2005 one of which resulted in the murder of another parliamentarian Tynychbek Akmatbayev Subsequent demonstrations in Bishkek which demanded that Prime Minister Kulov be fired raised doubts about the government s authority and the state s stability Fraudulent parliamentary elections in February 2005 led to a popular uprising the next month that deposed President Askar Akayev and replaced him with Kurmanbek Bakiyev who was elected president in July Formation of a new government however has been slow and hampered by divisions among the revolutionary leaders mostly former office holders who had broken with Akayev The most crucial relationship the tandem between President Bakiyev and Prime Minister Feliks Kulov has held but there are concerns about its longevity None of these specific problems much less the underlying issues have truly been solved Instead the authorities have deferred decisions and let events run their course while a growing pool of discontented individuals and groups forms and confidence in the administration wanes Most worryingly the government has largely lost control over public security The law enforcement agencies lack resources are severely demoralised and have become susceptible to outside pressure There is growing concern about the influence of criminal groups Property is being redistributed in a chaotic and sometimes violent manner as government criminals and other interests scramble for the country s valuable assets including many that the Akayev family monopolised The incidents listed below present a troubling picture of a society on the brink Rather than face up to these problems the government has been struggling with internal dissent Two of its best known members acting Prosecutor General Azimbek Beknazarov and acting Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva have been ousted and may now form the nucleus of a new opposition movement In Beknazarov s home region of Aksy anger at his dismissal and a lingering sense of injustice from police killings in 2002 have fuelled protests and demands for the president s resignation A long simmering dispute over a vital bazaar in Karasuu Osh province led to street violence and the murders of two key figures including parliamentarian Bayaman Erkinbayev Popular anger at the abuses of a former Akayev ally led to a workers uprising at the Karakeche coal mines in Naryn province the authorities lack of response paved the way for the rise of a local populist leader Nurlan Motuyev and produced the possibility of conflict over a key national asset Corruption and ineffectual government land reform policies have resulted in the occupation of much farm land by squatters and drawn thousands of The arrival of thousands of Uzbeks who fled their homeland after the violent suppression of the Andijon uprising in May 2005 produced the new government s first international crisis After an initial misstep accepting a request from Uzbekistan to return forthwith a handful of the refugees it subsequently rejected Karimov s demands for wholesale return and cooperated with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees the European Union and the U S in finding asylum for the bulk of the refugees Kyrgyzstan A Faltering State Crisis Group Asia Report N 109 16 December 2005 The transport to Romania of some 450 who applied formally for refugee status eased tensions somewhat but an unknown number of unregistered fugitives remain and relations between the neighbours are at an all time low with Tashkent applying pressure over energy trade and security issues At the same time Russia and China have pressed Kyrgyzstan to reconsider use by the U S of an airbase near Bishkek though the government is unlikely to accede in part at least because the facility provides important revenue Page ii If Kyrgyzstan is to succeed as a test case for democracy in Central Asia there must be a genuine commitment by the new government to be transparent and develop the rule of law There also need to be greater efforts by donors to help it achieve these ends Otherwise there is a real risk that the central government will lose control of institutions and territory and the country will drift into irreversible criminality and permanent low level violence Bishkek Brussels 16 December 2005 Asia Report N 109 16 December 2005 KYRGYZSTAN A FALTERING STATE I INTRODUCTION The revolution that removed President Askar Akayev from power on 24 March 2005 was the first of its kind in Central Asia 1 Coming on the heels of the coloured revolutions in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004 it had a galvanising impact on opposition movements and civil
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