11 10 15 LECTURE 18 Debates GOP debate tonight Needed 2 5 for vote in national vote o Moderators promised different tone from CNBC o Bush and Cruz ally to take down Rubio o Trump will criticize Carson s biography Dem debate Saturday Presidential Nomination of delegates each state gets to send to convention o Different rules for Dems Reps o Roughly of MCs and Senators Presidential vote get bonus if voted Dem Rep in previous elections Proportion of Dems Reps in House Senate Gov State Legislator States can lose their delegates if they hold their primaries too early Correlation isn t Causation Want to know the electoral value of incumbency How much better does an incumbent do versus a challenger of the same party o We know that incumbents have lots of advantages franking advertising position taking credit claiming but we want to know how much vote share those advantages buy How much vote share is the incumbency advantage worth Would like point estimate We want to know electoral value of money o We want to know if candidates can buy the election o We observe that the candidate who spends the most money usually wins But don t know if money has a casual impact on the vote One solution to problem of estimating Example 1 to approximate the incumbency advantage look at the retirement slump o Difference between how incumbent party does in an election with their incumbent running versus without their incumbent Same congressional district Incumbent runs and receives x of vote Incumbent retires and candidate from incumbent s party receives x difference retirement slump o When an incumbent retires the candidate from the retiring incumbent party loses 10 15 o The candidate from the retiring incumbent party does worse than what the incumbent did previously Retirement slump as indicator of incumbency advantage So the value of incumbency is taken to mean how much poorer did the new MC from the retiring incumbent s party do But what s wrong with this retirement slump measure o It doesn t take into account the strategic side o Incumbents retire when they are vulnerable o The electoral value of incumbency is over estimated by the retirement slump If the incumbent were forced to run he d do poorly too Another solution to the problem of estimation Example 2 to approximate the electoral value of candidate spending o Compare the vote share of the same candidate in different elections one where they spent more and the other when they spent less Chet Edwards 2006 spent 3 1 M received 58 of vote 2008 spent 2 1 M received 53 of vote o Can we conclude that each 1M spent the candidate receives a 5 of vote No not only do donors act strategically but candidates act strategically too Candidates raising and spending is strategic Empirically the relationship between spending and vote share is positive for challengers o The more the challenger spends the better he does But its reversed for the incumbents o The more the incumbent spends the worse he does Candidates raising and spending Money is strategic Incumbent spending o Incumbents never have a shortage of potential donors All else being equal they re the favorite to win o Nobody likes to fundraise Only raise and spend what is needed to win a race o Incumbent spending is strategic Raise and spend when they feel vulnerable o Negative relationship between money and vote share o Incumbent spending is reactive We don t know if money increases vote share independently We don t think that money decreases vote share if there is a negative relationship for incumbents it is because money reflects preexisting vulnerability Challenger spending o Challengers do not have an unlimited potential supply of money like incumbents do o Challengers can only raise and spend in proportion to their electoral prospects o When challengers are successful in raising money it s because they are on the offense against a weak incumbent o A challenger s ability to raise and spend is a reflection of their prospects o Positive relationship between money and vote share Other reasons for differential effects Incumbents already have name recognition o Electoral district is already saturated with information about the incumbent o Money isn t as valuable reached a point of diminishing marginal returns Challengers have to introduce themselves to the electorate Incumbents have other modes of communication with voters Challengers lack other communication modes Money is more important to challengers than incumbents
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