Ch 9 Public Opinion History of Public Participation Political Socialization a American Political Culture Polling a Sampling b Margin of Error I II III I II Why is public opinion important Representative democracy Public opinion is about representation it allows the government to let them know what we want tells the government what the will of the people is Founding era Madison wouldn t agree with it Didn t want to bring us into government and didn t want to give us a lot of power to influence the government Public opinion is very modern Paine interested in representation link but his doesn t end up in constitution Madison s do end up in the constitution He is a leadist Process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and values political socialization Formal and informal influences on this process Formal process of political socialization education knowledge about our system Informal process Influence on you comes from your family whether they care about politics don t peer group friends have a sway on your socialization go to school and realize other people have other backgrounds discuss issues exposed to different opinions beliefs and you evaluate them and also the media brings up new ideas and new sides of issues Can reinforce what you think Partisanship if you feel a strong attachment to a party Difference from vote choice but if you feel a strong attachment that is party identification Family is a long lasting influence Biology side 1 Whether or not your DNA if that influences your partisanship Democrat or Republican 2 Does your DNA tell if you have a strong attachment to a party Research shows that your party ID 1 no biological component to it 2 there is a biological component that helps explain if you will be a strong party supporter or not Socialization is key when it comes to party ID In your family but not in your DNA US has a singular political culture Cultural differences geographic differences we have an American political culture We all agree on demographic self rule that we are a republic basic rights basic liberties Differences between us and European country Never had feudalism landed gentry Our idea of equality is different when you don t have a feudal background We have no tradition of socialism in the US Because we didn t have feudalism we didn t have a call to overthrow the bourgeoisie Make us feel more cohesive because we agree on these basics Louis Hartz wrote Liberal Tradition in America About American political culture Argues we have the liberal tradition Based on the words on John Locke Classical liberalism that limited government basic rights liberties things that we can agree on III Public opinion has been important in our modern idea of polling and surveys How do we figure out what public opinion is Polling really bad examples 1 1936 election Roosevelt FDR was running against Landon It was a landslide for Roosevelt Comes as a shock to discover that the literary digest forecasted a win for Landon 2 1948 Chicago Tribune Dewey defeats Truman They actually announce it Truman actually won Early polls were a mess Voting after an election you can see what the voters said One problem in US we tend not to go and vote so our percent of eligible voters hovers around 50 of those who actually participate Voting and elections will only tell you the opinion of half of the country Crowd response give a stump speech whether they would almost boo or clap Big way to figure out public opinion before polling Nowadays not as big Protests and demonstrations tells you what that group of people think tells you what that group of people think But only Basic tool of polling What group population you want to actually poll You are going to need a sample from your population because you aren t going to be able to survey every person in your population You need a random sample bigger population has the same probability to be chosen for the sample We are interested in measuring opinion for everyone Sub groups women vs men might have different opinions from one another A random sample means that every person in your 1936 Election sub groups were missing Literary Digest magazine polls its readers who they were going to vote for Readers being wealthy did not support FDR and his New Deal Plans because they were doing fine and didn t need help from the government Only polled the wealthy because they were the only readers Margin of error Number of respondents in your survey A way of measuring the random sampling error Somewhere in between 500 1 000 people The margin of error affects whether or not there are statistical differences on poll results Want to think about the types of questions be a consumer of news Who sponsored the poll Who did the polling Who was interviewed How many What questions were asked When were the interviews conducted What is the margin of error Question wording can affect the answer Exit polling means they will send people outside of polling votes to ask who someone voted for It is about your sampling 1 Statement The country isn t spending enough on assistance to the poor 63 2 Statement same survey The country isn t spending enough on welfare Agreement 19
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