GC170 1st Edition Lecture 20 Outline of Last Lecture I Energy Budget and phase changes a Incoming outgoing energy i Reflected Absorbed b Greenhouse gases i Warmer Temp ii Melting Ice caps c Convection in atmosphere II States of matter a Warm cold b Cold warm III Definition of Latent Heat a Example of dry desert Outline of Current Lecture II Where are Greenhouses coming from a CO2 b CH4 N2O III What are fossil fuels a Coal oil natural gas b USA IV What will happen in the future a GCM b Storylines i A1 ii A2 iii B1 Current Lecture Where are Greenhouse Gases coming from CO2 o Burning of fossil fuels coal natural gas and oil o Sectors that contribute most to CO2 emissions Industry These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute Transportation Electricity generation CH4 Methane Nitrous Oxide N2O o Methane mostly comes from cattle and rice cultivation o N2O mostly comes from fertilizers o Increases in these have been modest in past few decades What are Fossil Fuels Coal oil natural gas o Plant matter buried and compressed into rocks millions of years ago o Oil and natural gas are liquids and stored within sedimentary rocks beneath surface o Coal is compressed plant matter that is solid rock The United States gets 81 of energy from fossil fuels a little bit from renewable resources o Cheap o Demand always increasing What will happen in the future Global climate models GCM simulate future temperatures based on CO2 emissions o As well as atmosphere and energy budget o Can reproduce the influence of human fossil fuels and natural volcanoes sunspots forcings on temperature o Separate out the influence of the humans fossil fuels GCM s model the temperature without fossil fuel emissions Represented by blue line No increasing trend in the temperature without the influence of humans GCM o Simulate the components of the energy budget and atmosphere o Change CO2 concentrations and surface properties o predict temperatures Researchers have developed storylines of future CO2 emissions based on several factors o Population growth o Economic growth o Technological advances o Political boundaries o Depends on the balance of all of the factors o Storylines A1 Increasing global economy Rapid economic growth New technologies available Peak in population at 2050 A1B Middle of the road Mix of fossil fuel and investment in alternative energy o Global economy people working together with some focus on the environment Mix of fossil fuel and renewable energies Moderate CO2 emissions Rise by 3 degrees by end of century More political boundaries no environmental solutions people not working together o Greatest CO2 emissions o Business as usual meaning nothing is done o Greatest temperature increase A2 B1 Best for the environment global economy people working together o Focus on technological advances and reductions in CO2 emissions o Lowest temperature increase Safe temperature of 2 degrees Where will the warming be most severe o At the poles
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