KIN 4310 1nd Edition Lecture 11 Outline of Last Lecture I Definition II Z Scores III Interpreting Z Scores IV Normal Distribution V Z Score Formulas VI Example Male Stature VII Percentile and Quartile VIII Definitions IX Quartiles X Percentiles XI Excel Functions XII The Normal Distribution XIII Example XIV Example XV Normal Distributions XVI Definition XVII Definition XVIII Important Principles These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute XIX Example Outline of Current Lecture I Workshop II Probability III Probability Example IV Probability V Probability and Statistics VI Introduction to Probability VII Probability Limits VIII Rare Event Rule IX Challenger Disaster X Formal Hypotheses XI Formal Hypotheses XII Current Lecture I Workshop a We did a validity study to see if resting HR and time held breath and SRPA are correlated We found that it looks like there is no relation II Probability a 0 or equal to p less than or equal to 1 b Represents how likely a specific event is to occur c For random events i Number of desired outcomes divided by total number of possible outcomes d Probability is the number of desired outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes e If you flip a fair coin and you want to get tails you have one outcome that will satisfy that even and you have two possible outcomes i The probability is or 50 or 50 III Probability Example TQ a You flip a fair coin five times and you want to get at least four tails i The probability is 6 32 or 0 188 or 18 8 IV Probability a In Texas Holdem what is the probability of being dealt pocket pairs b The first card dealt can be any card c It has three partners in the deck d There are 51 unknown cards in the deck e The probability is 3 51 or 1 17 V Probability and Statistics a Probability p is used to state how confident we can be about the existence of a particular statistical relationship b A smaller probability value means that we can be less confident that the observed statistical relationship is real VI Introduction to Probability a Consider the probabilities of the following statements i These slides will be included in Exam 2 1 1 ii I have no idea if these slides will be on the exam 1 5 iii There is not a snowball s chance in hell that these slides will be on the exam 1 0 b Probability is important for knowing the confidence we have in event VII Probability Limits a The probability of an impossible even is 0 b The probability of an event that is certain to occur is 1 c For any unknown event A A s probability can be expressed as 0 or equal to P A or equal to 1 VIII Rare Event Rule a When data occurs that is extremely improbable we must question the assumption that it occurred randomly b Example An all male jury is selected for a controversial case involving women s issues i What are the odds of 12 male jurors being randomly selected from the community ii P 0 5 12 0 00024 IX Challenger Disaster a January 28 1986 the shuttle exploded b From the data collected from o ring incidents below 65 degrees F and above 65 degrees F it is likely that temperature has something to do with o ring failure X Formal Hypotheses a Inferential statistics always starts with a claim like a hypothesis b Example i You can lose weight by switching to a high fat low carb diet ii People who attend church temple mosque regularly have lower cancer rates iii My uncle is psychic XI Formal Hypotheses a A null hypothesis is the negation of a claim i Its always negative ii Whatever you claimed it s the opposite b HO is the skeptical choice c HO says i The claim is false ii There is no effect iii Your uncle is NOT psychic XII Formal Hypotheses a The research hypothesis is a formal statement of the claim b H1 is assertive positive c H1 says i The claim is true ii A has an effect on B iii There is a relationship between A and B d