Geography 5 Week 4 Lecture 8 Paul Ehrlich (1932 to present) - Ph.D. in biological sciences (Kansas), professor in Stanford - The Population Bomb (1968) o Predicted that “in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death” due to overpopulation o A Malthusian Catastrophe argument - Introduced the I = P x A x T equation o (I)mpact o (P)opulation o (A)ffluence o (T)echnology - The Population Explosion Ehrlich, 1990 o “Arresting population growth should be second in importance only to avoiding nuclear war…” o Two solutions  Death rate solution – do nothing  Birth rate solutions – birth control Garrett Hardin (1915-2003) - PhD in Microbiology (Stanford, Professor at UCSB) - Tragedy of the Commons (1968) o Argument about Individual Benefit vs. Common Cost  Cost is spread over the rest of society  Tragedy of the Commons can exist if there is mismanagement  People (are selfish) and will exploit “The Commons”  Therefore Privatization is key “Lifeboat Ethics” - immigration - resources and population - solution – not let them in the boat and let them drown o benign neglect The Cornucopian View- The problem between population and resources can be solved by human ingenuity - Humans act “rationally” (unlike Malthus who saw poor as irrational) - Carrying Capacity of Nature can be raised with Technological Solutions o ex. Green Revolution  problems: concentration in power, etc  Food supply vs. Total Population  Consumption vs. Time Ester Boserup (1910 to 1999) - The Conditions of Agricultural Growth 1965 - Argued Population determines Agricultural Methods o Unlike Malthus who argued Agricultural Methods determine Population - “The power of ingenuity would always outmatch that of demand.” - cornucopian view The Socio-Political View - Political and Economic factors play a role in Overpopulation - Poverty  Overpopulation o Why  Labor is the only asset of the poor (No capital)  Poor don’t have access to Birth Control, Education  High infant mortality rates encourages many attempts at birth (reduced risk)  Social Security for Elderly (reduces risk)  cultural/economic condition  Gender Inequality / Opportunity for Women Development Perspectives - Demographic Transition Model / Theory China & Population - Current Population is about 1.4 Billion (20% world population (#1)o India 1.19 billion, USA 310million, Indonesia 240 million, Brazil 190 million.. - Some Chinese Provinces are Larger than Major Countries o Sichuan 107million; Henan 85million; Shadong 84million - Historical Population Growth o Columbian Exchange  New world crops, ex: tomatoes  Potatoes, South America  Corn, Central America/North America  These crops can be grown in equally marginal lands; areas of low water, hilly areas, etc - Current Growth Rate at about .5% o India 1.3%, USA .9%, - Post Revolution (1949-Present) Population Trends o Birth rates going down o Very high during WWII - Population Policy in Post-Revolution China o Mao Zedong Encouraged Population Growth …Why?  1. Increase Military Strength  Experience of the Civil and Korean Wars  “We shouldn’t be afraid of atomic missiles. No matter what kind of war breaks out – convention or thermonuclear – we’ll win. As for China, if the imperialists unleash war on us…..”  2. Increase Labor Power  “Every Mouth comes with Two Hands” – Mao Zedong  Marxist Orthodoxy (i.e. no population problem under socialism)  “It is a very good thing that China has a big population. Even if China’s population multiplies many times, she is fully capable of finding a solution; the solution is production.” - Population Policy in the Reform Period (1979 – Present) o One Child Policy (Early 1980’s) o Moderate Left rises Marxist attitudes o Initially tied to Economic Development o In the 1990s, tied to Environmental Issues o Implement population control in order to improve the ecological environment! o Reaction of Marxist / Maoist attitudes o Embracing of Neo-Malthusian attitudes ? - Problems with One Child