Geography 5 Week 4 Lecture 8 Paul Ehrlich 1932 to present Ph D in biological sciences Kansas professor in Stanford The Population Bomb 1968 o Predicted that in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death due to overpopulation o A Malthusian Catastrophe argument Introduced the I P x A x T equation o I mpact o P opulation o A ffluence o T echnology The Population Explosion Ehrlich 1990 o Arresting population growth should be second in importance only to avoiding nuclear war o Two solutions Death rate solution do nothing Birth rate solutions birth control Garrett Hardin 1915 2003 PhD in Microbiology Stanford Professor at UCSB Tragedy of the Commons 1968 o Argument about Individual Benefit vs Common Cost Cost is spread over the rest of society Tragedy of the Commons can exist if there is mismanagement People are selfish and will exploit The Commons Therefore Privatization is key Lifeboat Ethics immigration resources and population solution not let them in the boat and let them drown o benign neglect The Cornucopian View The problem between population and resources can be solved by human ingenuity Humans act rationally unlike Malthus who saw poor as irrational Carrying Capacity of Nature can be raised with Technological Solutions o ex Green Revolution problems concentration in power etc Food supply vs Total Population Consumption vs Time Ester Boserup 1910 to 1999 The Conditions of Agricultural Growth 1965 Argued Population determines Agricultural Methods o Unlike Malthus who argued Agricultural Methods determine Population The power of ingenuity would always outmatch that of demand cornucopian view The Socio Political View Political and Economic factors play a role in Overpopulation Poverty Overpopulation o Why Labor is the only asset of the poor No capital Poor don t have access to Birth Control Education High infant mortality rates encourages many attempts at birth reduced risk Social Security for Elderly reduces risk cultural economic condition Gender Inequality Opportunity for Women Development Perspectives Demographic Transition Model Theory China Population Current Population is about 1 4 Billion 20 world population 1 o India 1 19 billion USA 310million Indonesia 240 million Brazil 190 million Some Chinese Provinces are Larger than Major Countries o Sichuan 107million Henan 85million Shadong 84million Historical Population Growth o Columbian Exchange New world crops ex tomatoes Potatoes South America Corn Central America North America These crops can be grown in equally marginal lands areas of low water hilly areas etc Current Growth Rate at about 5 o India 1 3 USA 9 Post Revolution 1949 Present Population Trends o Birth rates going down o Very high during WWII Population Policy in Post Revolution China o Mao Zedong Encouraged Population Growth Why 1 Increase Military Strength Experience of the Civil and Korean Wars We shouldn t be afraid of atomic missiles No matter what kind of war breaks out convention or thermonuclear we ll win As for China if the imperialists unleash war on us 2 Increase Labor Power Every Mouth comes with Two Hands Mao Zedong Marxist Orthodoxy i e no population problem under socialism It is a very good thing that China has a big population Even if China s population multiplies many times she is fully capable of finding a solution the solution is production Population Policy in the Reform Period 1979 Present o One Child Policy Early 1980 s o Moderate Left rises Marxist attitudes o Initially tied to Economic Development o In the 1990s tied to Environmental Issues o Implement population control in order to improve the ecological environment o Reaction of Marxist Maoist attitudes o Embracing of Neo Malthusian attitudes Problems with One Child Policy