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what were the two major industrial revolutions?
-late 17th century- power loons, beginning of steam power, etc.. -late 18th century- internal combustion engine, assembly line, etc..
third industrial revolution?
present- combination of computers and big information and communications
each of the two industrial revolutions caused what?
creative destruction
todays technology effect on skilled jobs called
labor force polarization
labor force polarization
demand more for low skilled (drivers, cleaners, etc..) higher than for those of moderate skill level (college graduate)
what is new to china
they have never had to compromise with anyone, so this is new (result of protests)
what is a direct challenge about the protests in hong kong?
-longer protest, bigger problem -the more people hear about it, the more people see they can ask for political change
what is the dilemma with chinas government and the protests?
cant decide to wait it out or crack down. risks spread or risks protestors making headlines
most foreign power goes to which branch?
executive
what does the legislative branch do
-budget -"advise and consent" -treaty -war(limited)
legislative branch has ______ say in foreign power
limited
rules that allow for obstruction/slowness in both the house and senate...
majority votes win -but speaker and committee chairs set the agenda (and bills have to go through a process)
was there more party discipline in the house/senate in the past or present?
much more now
economist predicted that the election outcome would be:
-republicans keep the house (may pick up some seats), and take back the senate
why does the economist think republicans will take over the house and the senate?
-republicans should prove they can lead, not just prevent -obama will compromise more so he can lock in his presidency
foreign policy that the election will effect
-AUMF(Syria) -Iran -immigration (maybe)
domestic issues that the election will effect
-obamacare -budget/spending -debt ceiling -supreme court -cabinet (holder) -keystone XL -global warming regulation (EPA) -tax reform -TPP -tax amnesty/Highway trust fund
will these elections effect foreign or domestic politics more?
domestic-congress is more domestic
economists opinion about youth voting
20%-30% for presidential elections. they are passionate about things but dont vote
how many cases of ebola are there now
about 10,000
how many deaths have there been because of ebola?
4000
Where is ebola a real problem?
west africa (infecting people at exponential rate)
future trend of ebola
WHO confirms 9200+ cases as of oct 14th
how does ebola hurt the economy
costs of how you treat the sick patients (isolation)
soft power is
using power without force -fungible
fungible
the ability to convert forms of power to other forms of power
soft power is the power of
influence
success is convincing states with multiple interests, managing multiple states, effective communication, international institutions, and coordinating all the relevant actors and their actions
soft power definition
what would enhance the US soft power with syria?
if we are seen as really trying to help
what would hurt the US soft power with syria?
if we look like we arent trying enough-reputation
ISIS soft power
-making a good rep for themselves (PR/Media operation) -however, US and other states are pushing their interpretation of ISIS
Our direct action against ISIS (hurts/helps) their soft power (reputation)
helps
what is PKK
kurdish terrorist/insurgent group that has used fore in the past to try to force Turkey to let the turkish kurds become independent
why is the outcome of soft power negative in turkey?
-turkey's declining reputation (fights w isreal, violence against kurds, reduced democracy, etc.) makes it harder for the EU to accept them
how is saudi arabia's soft power?
not good -autocratic -corrupt -oil makes them lazy -buys off the usa to help
Saudi Arabia's soft power prevents them from becoming
a regional power
The euro-crisis is a
economic problem with a political solution
what is a problem with the euro crisis?
moral hazard
what is moral hazard
rewarding the wrongdoer for wrongdoings
How did Greece restructure its debt?
(partially defaulted; some of the creditors didnt get paid) -via an agreement with the international monetary fund (IMF)
what was greece's agreement with the IMF?
-required greece a huge budget cut in return for money and boost of confidence so greece could borrow again
what is greece's cost to borrow money?
9%
what is the bigger problem in the european crisis?
economic growth
why is europe back in debt?
they are borrowing more money than they can pay off
euro crisis: low growth causes lenders to
raise interest rates for loans( since they think the state is a greater risk for default)
euro crisis: higher cost loans mean
-less money for the state to stimulate the economy (more austerity) -causes less growth -which raises interest rates -which causes less growth
deflation definition
where the cost of goods decrease over time
is deflation good or bad for the economy?
bad
the economist thinks who will be close to deflation?
EU and USA
deflationary spiral
prices/wages keep spiraling down until you have another recession/depression
deflation raises the
-cost of debt for states and people
how do states/ people pay off debt?
every month/6 months/year you make a fixed payment
european debt crisis: what is adding fears in the EU?
deflation
normal solution to deflation and the euro crisis
default and devalue currency (only states can do this-not EU)
which state holds a lot of power in the euro crisis?
germany
canadian terrorists: self radicalization
-men had no connection to ISIS or al-qaeda, but have drifted to islam and then radicalized once there
why is it hard to prevent self radicalization?
-freedom of speech -legit fears of government over-reach with data means people have privacy
after the terrorist attacks on canada, prime minister harper does/doesnt want to get involved with ISIS?
does
canadians disagreeing with harpers beliefs is an example of
longstanding debate of freedom vs. security: no clear resolution
The taliban is
name given to group of organized insurgents in afghanistan and pakistan
when was the taliban the government of pakistan?
2001
taliban always been umbrella organization:
groups of ideologically linked islamic fundamentalists (sunni) came together
talibans goals in afghanistan
-fight against US-backed government -hope to take over again
talibans goals in pakistan
-some groups seek to overturn pakistan govt. -some seek safe ground to train to attack on US or India
US sees the taliban as basically equivalent to
al-qaeda
good things happening in Nigeria
-growing fast -exporting oil -reforming economic system -rising GDP -reduced poverty
bad things happening in nigeria
-massive inequality -most corrupt country in the world -govt. is incompetent and ineffective -islamic terrorist group (Boko Haram) is shifting and creating civil war
what is Boko Harum
sunni islamic and fundamentalist just like taliban, isis and al-qaeda. (but they arent connected)
Boko Harum has grown now to
10,000 fighters, captured nigerian army tanks, APCs, artillary
Boko Harum has formed a _______ and have basically seceded from Nigeria
caliphate
why does Boko Harum have the ability to gain followers when theyre believe crazy things?
-partly coercion -nigerian govt has failed to help their people, so there is little loyalty
what is nigeria's larger problem?
inability to fix governance issues
nigeria's governance issue
-most their actions denefit corruption, so they are unwilling to change policy and inability to because the people cant do anything to change it
how long has nigeria been democratic?
since 2000
due to nigerias poor democracy system:
-no civil society -no common set of beliefs in govt. -trust in other people -etc..
consent means
people will do what the government wants them to do, not necessarily what is best for themselves
has oil prices gone up or down in the past few months/.
down
who wins with fall in gas prices?
those who import oil
who loses with fall in oil prices
those who export oil
who is the largest producer AND consumer of oil
USA
which state in the US may the fall in oil prices hurt
north dakota
is china an importer or export of oil
importer-fall in prices is good for them
why is the fall in oil prices good for china?
gives them a chance to make progress on environmental issues
for china, fall in oil prices can reduce what?
reduce subsidies and make economy better over time
subsidies definition
non-tariff barrier that states use to effect trade and help protect their domestic industry
what is one of the worlds most commonly subsidized things?
energy/oil
why is it difficult to take down subsidies? (economically)
-sudden rise in price of gas/energy can cause recession (business/consumers cut back on buying things in order to spend more on gas)
why is it difficult to take down subsidies? (politically)
sudden rise in gas prices (which can cause a rise is all prices: transportation) angers people, who protest against govt.
what is the good reason why govts. start subsidies?
-economic development -bringing energy costs within reach of poor people -but then are trapped into keeping subsidies
global oil price: europe
-not a producer -but a big importer
why does india win across the board with the fall in oil prices?
-b/c they are an agriculturally-dominated state -reduces inflation: energy costs decline -govt can spend a lot less to keep gas prices down because they subsidize heavilty
Saudi arabia and global oil price collapse
-loser: one of largest exporters -will have huge loss of revenue -lower costs will drive producers out of business which allows the state to capture more market share (for when price goes up)
venezuela in global oil price collapse
-loser: oil industry is owned by govt -oils sales direct part of budget -huge political problem and economic crash
how much money does venezuela need to break even?
$120 a barrel to break even
iran in global oil price collapse
-loser -need $135 a barrel to break even -pays 25% GDP to subsidize -under sanctions for nuke program so cant borrow
russia in global oil price collapse
russia in global oil price collapse -loser -govt basically owns oil companies -budget based on oil revenue -now putins plans for paying economic development, military build up and war in ukraine can not happen
Iran's new generation is less interested in ______ and more interested in _____ ______
-islam -economic growth
what is the key point between Iran and USA?
iranian nuclear program
iranian nuclear program: why?
-prestige -threat -sovereignty
the NPT(non-proliferation treaty) is
weakening but not dead: -8 states involved: USA, UK, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Isreal, Iran
why is the iranian program and example of an IGO?
-realism would push states to get nukes (pakistan, Iran, NK) -but IGO is working to reduce that picture
deal w iran: they get
reduced sanctions (more money)
deal w iran: we give up
some of the sanctions (not all)
deal w iran: we get
more/better inspections
what changed in iran that made them change their mind?
-iran domestic politics -2 interest groups (moderates and hard-liners=self explanatory after election)
domestic changes in iran
-religion down -freedom up -reduced birth rates increased education rates
domestic iran: politics
-strongly influenced by interest groups -not democratic but not not democratic -lots of patriotism (not nationalism)

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