From the Paved State Back to the Garden State Mobility without Highways for New Jersey BackgroundSo…Looking BackSlide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Finally:Starting to Look ForwardSo…http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdfPRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take?Sketch Planning ProcessBasic NJ Transport StatsBriefly on EnergyOPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008Glouchester CountyEssex CountyMiddlesex CountyMorris CountyPassaic CountySussex CountyUnion CountyWarren CountySlide Number 27Slide Number 28Bottom LineConclusionsSeptember 16, 2008From the Paved State Back to the Garden State Mobility without Highways for New JerseyAlain L. KornhauserProfessor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Transportation Research ProgramPrinceton UniversityPresented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NYSeptember 16, 2008Background• I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years• In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of progress:– A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said: “Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future…And Always will be!!!”• But we have made progress:– Morgantown has proven that it can be done– APMs are a standard of every modern airport– Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous, reliable and cheap– There is broad movement towards energy independence and alternatives to the petroleum economySeptember 16, 2008So…• Premise:– NJ in 2008 is very different from NJ in 1908• A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2108 (or before)September 16, 2008Looking Back• In the beginning, it takes a while• let’s look at the automobile:Daimler, 1888September 16, 2008Central Ave. Caldwell NJ c. 1908September 16, 2008September 16, 2008Bloomfield Ave. & Academy Rd. c. 1908 Before it was pavedSeptember 16, 2008Muddy Bloomfield Ave. c. 1908September 16, 2008Muddy Main St. (Rt. 38) Locke, NY. c. 1907September 16, 2008Automobile Congestion 1968 - presentFinally:September 16, 2008Starting to Look ForwardDaimler, 1888Morgantown, 1973September 16, 2008So…18881973190819882073September 16, 2008http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdfSeptember 16, 2008PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take?• Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class (Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years• Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips + access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila• Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/September 16, 2008Sketch Planning Process• Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose• Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and Physical constraints• Manually locate all stations and interconnection• Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow the trips on the interconnected network.• Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnectionSeptember 16, 2008Basic NJ Transport StatsElement ValuePopulation (2006 est.) 8.725 millionGrowth rate 3.7% (6.4% nw)Population density 1,134.5 ppsm (highest in US)190ppsm (Salem) – 12,800pps (Hudson)Persons < 5 years old 6% Persons 5-17 18%Persons 18-64 63%Persons 65 and over 13%Total Person trips per day 29.46M2007 $ Spent on Personal Mobility by NJ Citizens (mostly on Automobile)$24BSource of Electricity Generation Nuclear: 45%; Natural Gas: 41%; Renewables: < 0.2%September 16, 2008Briefly on Energyhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdfSeptember 16, 2008OPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008EIA World oil Demand, Nov 12, 2008: 85.89 MbpdSeptember 16, 2008Glouchester CountySeptember 16, 2008Essex CountySeptember 16, 2008Middlesex CountySeptember 16, 2008Morris CountySeptember 16, 2008Passaic CountySeptember 16, 2008Sussex CountySeptember 16, 2008Union CountySeptember 16, 2008Warren CountySeptember 16, 2008Number of Stations by County & Main Trip EndCounty Transp School Home Recre Office Industry Public Shop Religious MultiUse Other TOTALAtlantic - 17 - 1 18 114 8 - 3 30 - 191 Bergen 28 217 394 47 81 37 15 32 17 249 - 1,117 Burlington 1 69 24 52 188 76 40 54 2 85 6 597 Cape May 11 30 173 46 17 217 38 18 47 351 28 976 Cumberland 2 37 106 7 68 86 24 27 2 78 - 437 Essex 18 30 102 237 9 9 15 92 - 83 - 595 Gloucester 2 103 192 9 20 9 3 13 6 55 - 412 Hudson 7 37 58 154 12 15 7 113 - 64 - 467 Hunterdon 2 39 107 26 21 34 25 44 9 78 20 405 Mercer 5 85 43 18 89 22 21 28 7 89 6 413 Middlesex 11 15 224 16 15 88 - 2 - 70 3 444 Monmouth 31 25 75 27 62 6 8 10 19 66 6 335 Morris 14 125 408 55 50 12 16 16 20 127 15 858 Ocean 11 105 55 60 76 69 52 56 - 42 14 540 Passaic 38 152 285 110 104 65 38 57 71 262 3 1,185 Salem 4 26 45 5 73 27 13 24 1 67 - 285 Somerset 7 39 330 19 31 10 2 23 6 94 7 568 Sussex 3 56 74 68 51 41 16 38 4 37 21 409 Union 16 48 99 112 91 26 45 57 - 83 - 577 Warren 11 42 217 45 55 32 28 20 1 22 11 484 TOALS 222 1,297 3,011 1,114 1,131 995 414 724 215 2,032 140 11,295September 16, 2008County Stations Miles County Stations MilesAtlantic 191 526 Middlesex 444 679Bergen 1,117 878 Monmouth 335 565Burlington 597 488 Morris 858 694Camden 482 355 Ocean 540 1,166Cape May 976 497 Passaic 1185 1,360Cumberland 437 1,009 Salem 285 772Essex 595 295 Somerset 568 433Gloucester 412 435 Sussex 409 764Hudson 467 122 Union 577 254Hunterdon 405 483 Warren 484 437Mercer 413 403 Total 11,295 12,261September 16, 2008Bottom LineElement ValuePRT Trips per day (90%) 26.51MPeak hour trips (15%) 3.98MFleet size 530KFleet Cost $B $53B @ $100K/vehicleStations 11,295Station Cost $28B @ $2M/StationGuideway 12,265 milesGuideway Cost $61B @ $5M/mileTotal Capital Cost $143BSeptember 16, 2008Conclusions• It’s a lot• It does a lot• It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility patterns• We should be able to do better• Thank