Consumers / Travelers / ShippersEnvironment (Regulation, Infrastructure, Nature)TechnologyOrf 467Transportation planning and Systems Analysis Fall 2007/8How will the Mobility Environment Change by 2030?Key questions• What will the mobility environment be 20 years from now? (transportation modes, types of vehicles, mobility-related services, etc.)• What are the most important drivers of change between now and then?• What could happen that might change the expected evolution?WHAT ARE THE DRIVING FORCES?Consumers / Travelers / Shippers• How will consumer characteristics change by 2030?- Demography/ economy/ urbanization- Behavior– trends toward increasing mobility• How are mobility needs changing?- Basic mobility characteristics by consumer segment?- Time and budget spent on transportation- Importance of "ownership" vs. "usage"- Analysis of changing mobility segments by travel modeor occasion- Trip intensity (#, km); identification of heavy traveler segments- Mobility needs (e.g., automotive services, telematics services)- Car (vehicle) types / conceptsEnvironment (Regulation, Infrastructure, Nature) • What impact will regulatory changes have on the mobility environment in 2030?- Recycling regulations- Pollution/ noise regulations- Safety / security regulations- Traffic controlOrf 467Transportation planning and Systems Analysis Fall 2007/8• What impact will changes in infrastructure have?• Will the natural environment change the outcome (global warming, limited resources)?Technology• What impact will new technologies have on the mobilityenvironment in 2030?- Fundamental technologies (e.g. IT, telecommunications, nanotechnology)- Automotive technologies (e.g., car electronics, road
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