Slide Number 1Slide Number 2The Measurement ProblemCell Probe TechnologyCell Probe TechnologyCell Probe PrivacySlide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Path-Finding Drive TestsBaltimore MMTISBaltimore MMTIS – Private FirmsSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Baltimore Comparison with RTMS DataAnalysis Route OverviewPerformance data I-695 – July 2005Baltimore I-695 Weekday PatternsBaltimore I-695 Saturday PatternsBaltimore I-695 Route Travel TimeSlide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30What about Travel Time Variability?Vehicle ProbesVehicle ProbesNorth American Monument NetworkSlide Number 35Slide Number 36Real-Time Dynamic Minimum ETA Sat/NavProject ObjectivesExperiment DetailsBasic Operational ArchitectureEvery SecondEvery “n” MinutesWhen AvailableWhat We Heardalso Can Watch VehiclesForecasting Travel Times Using Exponential SmoothigHistorical Expectation: ConceptsHistorical Expectation: ConceptsHistorical Expectation: SolutionHistorical Expectation: ApplicationHistorical Expectation: ApplicationUsing Real-Time Information to Improve our EstimateIncluding Real-Time Information: ConceptsIncluding Real-Time Information: ConceptsIncluding Real-Time Information: ConceptsIncluding Real-Time Information: SolutionIncluding Real-Time Information: SolutionSlide Number 58Including Real-Time Information: ApplicationSlide Number 60Slide Number 61Slide Number 62Slide Number 63Slide Number 64Slide Number 65Slide Number 66Slide Number 67Slide Number 68Slide Number 69Slide Number 70Slide Number 71Slide Number 72Slide Number 73Slide Number 74Slide Number 75Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 81 6111222333435 5668896PROBLEM: How to get from A to B•Many Paths•Each with a Different Value to the Decision Maker•Each Segment Changing with Uncertainty over TimeAddressing the Real-time Aspects In Turn-by-turn Navigation4Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Link Travel TimesHistoric, Actual & Forecast DuringDayOne week-day on one linkThings change!Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8The Measurement Problem• How to collect the real time Speed Data?– Incremental Infrastructure• In pavement loop detectors (single point)• radar/laser/video signpost systems (single point)• EZ Pass readers (2 point span measurement, Excellent)– CrowdSourced Data• Map data: NYT article• Wireless Location Technology (Cellular Probes, see Fontaine, et al)– Cell-tower trilateration» Yet to demonstrate sufficient accuracy– Cell-handoff processing» maybe OK for simple networks• Floating Car (Vehicle Probe) data processing (see Demers et al)Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Cell Probe Technology• Practical success requires more than cell phones• Cell phone movement based on cell location and “hand-offs” from one cell to another• Pattern recognition techniques filter out data from those not on the highway• Then traffic algorithms generate travel times and speeds on roadway links• Cell phones need to be turned on, but not necessarily in use• Full regional systems in place in Baltimore, Antwerp, and Tel Aviv = 4,600 miles, ShanghaiOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Cell Probe TechnologyGSMSampleObserverSampleSampleObserverObserverCellCellCellDirectionof travelGSMGSMSampleObserverSampleSampleObserverObserverCellCellCellDirectionof travelOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Cell Probe PrivacyOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, part 1Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, part 2Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, part 3Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, part 4Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, part 5Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, part6Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, full tripOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Handset 49, full tripOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Path-Finding Drive TestsOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Baltimore MMTIS• At one point this was the first regional deployment of commercial-quality cellular traffic probes in North America• Mutually profitable public-private partnership– Test commercial markets during project– Integrate with existing public data – including transit and E-911– Encourage public applications beyond traditional ITS• Contract signed September 2004; data flow to Maryland DOT began April 2005Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Baltimore MMTIS – Private Firms• Delcan-NET– Transportation and technology consultants– Fifty plus years in business– Profitable every year; staff = 500 plus• ITIS Holdings– Leader in traffic probes; staff = 100– Commercial customers – 16 automobile firms, for-profit 511– Profitable!– Publicly traded on London exchange• National cellular firms (Verizon and AT&T)Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Orf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8MARYLAND DOT CAMERAS SHOW ACCURACY OF TRAFFIC INFORMATION BEING CAPTURED USING CELL PROBESI-695 at HARTFORD ROADMonday, June 6th20059:02:18 amOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8I-695 at HARTFORD ROADMonday, June 6th20059:33:06 amCELL PROBES ACCURATELY UPDATETRAFFIC CONDITIONS AS CHANGES OCCUROrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/1111/17/201011/9/2008 Week 8Produced by Dr Hillel Bar Gerd, Associate Professor, Ben Gurion Negev University, IsraelOrf 467 – Transportation Systems AnalysisFall 2010/11Week 8Baltimore Comparison with RTMS DataTraffic Situation reported by ITIS CFVD™ Technology and RTMS equipmentBaltimore I-695 @ I-70 Inner loop - Friday, August 120102030405060708001:0002:0003:0004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0019:00Local Time (EDT)Reported Speed (MPH)ITIS CFVD™ data RTMS dataOrf 467