Consumers / Travelers / ShippersEnvironment (Regulation, Infrastructure, Nature) TechnologyOrf 467 Transportation planning and Systems Analysis Fall 2007/8 How will the Mobility Environment Change by 2030? Key questions • What will the mobility environment be 20 years from now? (transportation modes, types of vehicles, mobility-related services, etc.) • What are the most important drivers of change between now and then? • What could happen that might change the expected evolution? WHAT ARE THE DRIVING FORCES? Consumers / Travelers / Shippers • How will consumer characteristics change by 2030? - Demography/ economy/ urbanization - Behavior– trends toward increasing mobility • How are mobility needs changing? - Basic mobility characteristics by consumer segment? - Time and budget spent on transportation - Importance of "ownership" vs. "usage" - Analysis of changing mobility segments by travel mode or occasion - Trip intensity (#, km); identification of heavy traveler segments - Mobility needs (e.g., automotive services, telematics services) - Car (vehicle) types / concepts Environment (Regulation, Infrastructure, Nature) • What impact will regulatory changes have on the mobility environment in 2030? - Recycling regulations - Pollution/ noise regulations - Safety / security regulations - Traffic control • What impact will changes in infrastructure have?Orf 467 Transportation planning and Systems Analysis Fall 2007/8 • Will the natural environment change the outcome (global warming, limited resources)? Technology • What impact will new technologies have on the mobility environment in 2030? - Fundamental technologies (e.g. IT, telecommunications, nanotechnology) - Automotive technologies (e.g., car electronics, road
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