POLS 206 Lecture 9Outline of Previous Lecture-4.5: Right to Bear Arms-4.6: Defendants Rights 4.7: Right to PrivacyOutline of Current Lecture-Chapter 6: Public Opinion and Political Action o6.1American Melting Pot Regional ShiftGraying of America o6.2Process of Political Socialization Political Learning Over a Lifetimeo6.3How Polls are Conducted Role of Polls in American DemocracyLecture-Chapter 6: Public Opinion and Political Actiono6.1-American Melting PotA nation of nations -1 million legal immigrants a year -500000 illegal immigrants a year -12% of residents foreign born Minority Majority?-Hispanic population growing rapidly -Regional ShiftNortheast most populous West and south growing since WWII -Sun belt migration -Arizona, Texas, Florida -Political power of these areas increasing Reapportionment - reallocation of seats in House of Representatives (435 seats)-Once each decade, after census-Graying of America Over-65 fastest growing age group People living longer Fertility rate lower Implications for social security-Ratio changing -Politically-sensitive o6.2-Process of Political SocializationCivics class tip of iceberg Family-Biggest agent in socialization -Attributed to monopoly on your time -Central role -Time and emotional commitment Mass and media -The new parents (and teachers) -TV called "new parents"-Age gap in following politics School -Forming civic virtue-Leads to forming own political ideology -Political Learning over a Lifetime Increasing participation with age Party identification strengthens Political behavior is learned o6.3-How Polls are Conducted Sample Random sample -Key to accuracy of any public opinion poll Sampling error -Every poll has some kind of sampling error -Larger the sample, the less the error will be Random digit dialing-Scientifically, everyone has an equal chance to be chosen -Cell phones Internet polling -Not scientific and should not be trusted -Biased because they cannot be random Gallop poll is very reliable -Role of Polls in American Democracy Polling as a tool for democracy: pros and cons -Gauge opinion between elections -Following rather than leading -Pandering or shaping? -Bandwagon effect Exit polls -Affect election results Question wording-Close-ended questions don’t show intensity but open-ended questions cant be
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