Noli F Valera Jr Measuring Hospital Capacity May 8 2005 Measuring Hospital Capacity Assessing the Emergency Capacity of Bay Area Hospitals in Times of Disaster Noli Valera Abstract As centers for emergency care hospitals must be well prepared in order to provide proper care for individuals in times of disaster This is especially important during large scale disasters where emergency cases are so numerous as to overwhelm a region s capability to handle emergencies This study examines whether or not hospitals possess the capacity to provide care for such an influx of patients Also this study examines the distribution of hospitals in the study area to determine if hospitals adequately serve their communities A simulation model looks at the capacity of hospitals in Alameda and San Francisco Counties in relation to the different populations that each hospital serves This model also examines the relationship of age and socioeconomic factors with hospital capacity Results show that hospitals have the capacity to provide care for critical levels of injury in times of emergency Furthermore age and socioeconomic factors have only a minor correlation with hospital capacity distribution p 1 Noli F Valera Jr Measuring Hospital Capacity May 8 2005 Introduction Disasters both natural and unnatural can strike without notice in all parts of the world California is at risk for a number of natural disasters such as landslides earthquakes wildfires and flooding Office of Emergency Preparedness 2006 In the past twenty years several natural disasters have struck California The Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 struck the San Francisco Bay Area causing 63 deaths leaving more than 3 700 injured and causing almost 6 billion dollars in property damage The 7 1 magnitude earthquake was the largest earthquake to strike along on the San Andreas Fault since the 1906 earthquake Stover 1993 A 6 9 magnitude earthquake centered in Northridge in the San Fernando Valley struck in 1994 causing 57 deaths and 20 40 billion in property damages Wald 2000 Severe storms have struck throughout California with flooding and landslides causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage The most recent event occurred in April of 2005 when floods struck the area between Kern and San Diego Counties causing tens of millions of dollars in damage FEMA 2006 Wildfires are prevalent in California and history has shown they can be as destructive or even more so as other disasters In 1991 the Oakland Berkeley Hills fire killed 25 people injured 150 others burned over 1 600 acres destroyed several thousand homes and caused nearly 1 5 billion in damage Oakland Berkeley Hills Fire 2005 In 2003 ten major fires struck Southern California causing 22 deaths burning over 800 000 acres destroying over 3 000 homes and causing an estimated 12 billion in damage FEMA 2006 Although the threat of natural disasters is considerable in California the threat of unnatural disasters is also significant The events of 9 11 have heightened the perception of the threat of terrorism in the U S Following identification of several potential terrorist targets in the SF Bay Area there have been recent efforts to increase the safety in these areas through increasing the security on bridges ports public transit systems and other public areas highlighting their potential for attacks SF Chronicle Editorial 2006 Also the threat of disease outbreaks is a cause for major concern The recent threat of avian influenza which has been lethal in several cases has caused panic throughout the world Bradsher 2006 Efforts have taken place to prevent an outbreak from occurring in the United States as pharmaceutical companies are rushing to produce vaccines and anti viral drugs and hospitals and other health organizations are preparing plans to administer care for the potentially large number of patients Russell 2006 p 2 Noli F Valera Jr Measuring Hospital Capacity May 8 2005 Preparation for disasters such as earthquakes and disease outbreaks has become a priority as most organizations possess some sort of emergency plan in case of disaster Organizations can minimize the impact of disasters through preparation The Federal Emergency Management Agency or FEMA has made it mandatory for organizations and local governments to develop an emergency disaster plan in order to receive federal grant money Furthermore programs such as the National Bioterrorism Hospital Preparedness Program have been established to fund preparedness HRSA 2006 Likewise hospitals and other health facilities will typically have emergency disaster plans One of the most important elements of hospital disaster preparedness is capacity Hospital capacity is the maximum number of patients that a hospital can provide health services My research assesses hospital capacity in terms of nursing staff size and numbers of beds available for treating patients These figures are then compared to the populations that each hospital serves Through this comparison I hope to answer questions concerning the general preparedness of hospitals and the distribution of hospitals in my study area The objective of this project is to determine whether hospitals are equipped to care for a large increase in emergency cases during a major disaster By simulating different levels of injury rates I will determine whether or not care can be administered by the hospitals with regards to their respective hospital capacities Methods To determine the emergency preparedness of hospitals I have looked at several of the hospitals in the Bay Area My study sites are Alameda and San Francisco Counties which have 25 hospitals trauma centers in total San Francisco is an area composed of urban areas whereas Alameda County is composed of both urban and rural areas U S Census 2000 Urban areas are defined as areas with population densities above 1000 people per square mile U S Census 2000 Urban and Rural Classification Densely populated areas have more emergency needs during disaster There are 10 San Francisco County hospitals in this study 1 Laguna Honda Hospital and Rehabilitation Center 2 St Luke s Hospital 3 St Francis Memorial Hospital 4 Chinese Hospital p 3 Noli F Valera Jr Measuring Hospital Capacity 5 UCSF Medical Center 6 California Pacific Medical Center 7 Kaiser Foundation Hospital San Francisco 8 San Francisco General Hospital Medical Center 9 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 10 St Mary s Medical Center Figure 1 San Francisco County with hospitals see above And
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