Literature CitedPossible Effects of Larger Vehicles on the CO2 Mitigation of Compact Hybrid Vehicles in California Vaughn Grigsby Abstract This project investigates whether the increase in larger, less efficient vehicles in California over the next twenty years will adversely effect carbon dioxide mitigation despite clean technology improvements in compact vehicles. Given different projections for our states population growth, I assessed the overall carbon dioxide mitigation effects of clean vehicle technology given various rates of growth and efficiency improvement across compact vehicles, sport utility vehicles, and commercial transportation. California is the most prolific of all states with regards to automobile travel and commercial vehicle usage. Californians have an average of one vehicle for every two persons in the population. As a response to the increasing number of vehicles in the state, California is also on the forefront of environmental legislation for mitigation of pollutants such as carbon dioxide and other ozone depleting substances found in smog. However, as our burgeoning population continues to grow, the number of vehicles on the road will increase as well as the consumption of fuels and the polluting effects of burning these fuels. The sport utility sector (SUV) has been the fastest growing sector of the automobile sales in the United States for the past ten years. SUVs although much more efficient than in earlier times, have lacked the clean technology investment of smaller compact vehicles. Compact clean technologies have been successful in California, but not as prolific as SUV sales. My scenarios illustrated that environmental gains of compact hybrid technologies are significantly offset by the lack of clean technology in larger vehicles and the overall increase in the number of large vehicles in California. This indicates a need for significant attention for both the high growth rate of larger vehicles as well as the efficiency of large vehicle engines.Introduction Since the advent of hybrid and electric vehicles into mainstream American automobile industry, there has been a general acceptance of these technologies as a suitable means to mitigate global warming and ozone depletion caused buy the consumption of fossil fuels (Harrison, 2003). California, the most prolific of all the states in terms of automobile sales and usage (Rand McNally, 2001), has been at the forefront of the nation in adopting environmental legislation regarding automobile pollution (Waterman, 1998). As automobile sales continue to grow, many in California look to hybrid and electric vehicles as the “savior of our environment” (Waterman, 1998). Studies have definitively shown that hybrid and electric vehicles pollute much less point source carbon dioxide than their traditional internal combustion counterparts (DOE, 1998). However, even in light of those studies, the electric vehicle market has failed to become a successful economic venture in California (Parker, 2003). The failure of electric vehicles to become a viable option for mainstream transportation has lead to large research and economic investments on the part of many automobile manufacturers into clean technologies (Diem, 2003). Automobile corporations in America and abroad have focused their main attention on hybrid technologies for smaller vehicles which has lead to many successful ventures in that sector (Friedman, 2003). Although this strategy would certainly be more sensitive to the environment than disregarding environmental concerns and clean technologies, there is still the fact that these corporations have not placed as much emphasis on green technology for larger vehicles (Friedman, et al., 2003). Sport utility vehicles are the largest growing sector automobile sales in the United States (R. L. Polk, 2003). In addition, as the population of California grows, and commerce expands, so will the need for long haul trucking. These vehicle types represent some of the most inefficient of traditional combustion engines (Mark and Morey, 2000). Many studies such as GREET and HEVCOST (ATTA, 2003) have demonstrated the environmental and economic efficiency of hybrid vehicles. However, few of these studies have taken into account how growth in larger traditional vehicles will affect the carbon dioxide mitigating potential of the mostly compact hybrid vehicles. I believe that the numbers of these larger vehicles are especially important in California, where growth in those sectors is projected to be the greatest. California’ population is expected to grow more than any other state in the union (US Census, 2000). As population increases, so will the number of drivers, and the amount of vehicles on the road. California already has the most registered vehicles of any other state (US Census, 2000).Economic prosperity in California has also led to an increase of families with more than one car (Falon, 2003). Commercial transportation (trucking) has expanded in California to meet the burgeoning needs of our economy (Levin, et al., 2001). These factors are very important to consider when examining the effectiveness of hybrid vehicles in California transportation. The cornerstone of my study is my belief as population increases and the number of additional larger, more inefficient, traditional private and commercial vehicles increases, the carbon dioxide mitigating potential of hybrid vehicles will be significantly reduced. This study will present a variety of scenarios based on various population projections for California and the growth of commercial and private transportation. Methods My research examines the CO2 mitigation effectiveness of hybrid vehicles in California over the next twenty years. At specific intervals (2005, 2015, and 2025), scenario projections will be examined and discussed. I choose population models representing distinctive and comprehensive growth trends for California from five different publication sources: the Congressional Quarterly [2003], Information Publications [2003], California Statistical Abstract [2002], US Databook Series [2002], and the California Senate Office of Research [2001]. With these projections, I applied the EPA benchmark values for vehicles per capita (.593 per capita for private and .16 per capita for commercial) (EPA, 2000). This yielded a number for the total amount of private and commercial vehicles for a given state
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