01 09 2016 Overview International cooperation on atmospheric pollution last time set the stage for the negotiations on climate change Atmospheric carbon which causes climate change is a classic tragedy of the commons problem each country wants other people to cut emissions but nobody wants to cut their own emissions Kyoto Protocol 1997 Keynote by Al Gore Attendees o 6000 UN delegate 160 countries o 3600 delegates from NGOs incl business o 3500 reporters Kyoto Ratifies Kyoto Protocol 1997 Basic idea cut greenhouse gas emissions Treaty among nations o So emissions were to be cut by each nation Note that this is inherently both inefficient and ineffective would you assign emissions reductions to each state in US To each county o Nations could use whatever mechanism they like commandand control cap and trade etc If one of those is best you re not requiring the best Kyoto Basic Structure 1990 levels By 2012 parties would cut emissions of six greenhouse gases below o EU by 8 US by 7 Japan by 6 o Other industrialized countries by 5 2 No obligations for poor countries o Even if emissions rapidly increasing o Annual emissions from non OECD now nearly 50 higher than in the OECD o and growing more than twice as fast Kyoto and US Politics No ratification or implementation o G H W Bush signed the Rio framework in 1992 o Clinton agreed to Kyoto Protocol in 1998 o G W Bush withdrew the US from Kyoto in 2001 EPA regulation of CO2 o G W Bush refused to classify as pollutant o Some states took regulatory action o Several states sued Bush in 2003 won in 2007 o Under Obama EPA began to regulate CO2 as a pollutant in 2009 Europeans didn t meet their targets either Collective Goods and Distribution Questions Preventing global warming is a collective good Everybody benefits whether they pay or not o So of course no one wants to pay o But costs of reducing emissions vary significantly Kyoto made the decision that rich countries should be only ones that pay o Fairness rich can afford it o Historical justice they caused problem That solution sets world up for repetition of the problem doesn t reduce future emissions Kyoto Role of Developing Countries Non developed countries formally non Annex I may participate in emissions reduction through Clean Development Mechanism What is it Rich country can pay to lower emissions in a poor country project o This may be attractive because it s cheaper to reduce emissions in poorer countries Kyoto Clean Development Mechanism Why do this o US wanted Kyoto to use flexible especially market based methods to achieve goals o Normative decision to benefit developing countries Cynics a way for rich countries to avoid reducing emissions after all o CDM reduced emissions are inherently counterfactual and may be fictional o Also may be cheap HFC 23 emissions reductions in China have cost only 100 million but European firms received 4 6 billion in CDM credits Kyoto Economic Responses Carbon outsourcing o Rich countries can reduce carbon emissions by shutting down high carbon industries o Developing countries move into those industries export products back to rich world o Evidence Increase in developed world s carbon imports is six times greater than the developed world s reductions in carbon emissions Preservationist evidence tropical deforestation coincides with rich country reforestation 2009 Copenhagen Conference Officially the Fifth Session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Longterm Co operative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change o i e Kyoto renewal expired in 2012 o Obama administration proposed lowering US emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 developing countries would like rich countries to cut 1990 levels by 45 o That is a large gap in positions Negotiate possible successor to Kyoto o 15 000 delegates and officials o 5 000 journalists o 98 world leaders o All of whom walked or biked to get there While in Copenhagen they used o 1200 limos o 140 private planes including Travolta s 727 o Plus Air Force One and other official jets Copenhagen Agreement Consensus on goal keep climate increase below 2 C o Current change is 0 8 C associated with 30 increase in acidity of oceans 5 atmosphere over oceans Loss of one third of Arctic ice Agreement that major cuts in carbon emissions are necessary to stay within that threshold Increase technology aid to developing world TBD No commitments No legal force Is that necessary Kyoto Copenhagen IS it the Right Approach at all The success stories are dubious o Russia has met its targets thanks to its economic implosion o Germany reduced emissions through collapse of East German o Britain reduced emissions because coal mining industry industry collapsed In contrast regulations don t seem to lower emissions So CONSUMPTION is the problem