Terminology Nation a group of people with a shared identity and culture State a political unit with a defined territorial area o Decolonization o Multinational states fragmenting breakup of Yugoslavia The proliferation of States 1914 41 states Today 193 UN members Why the increase New States Legal requirements o Defined territory o Permanent population o Sovereign government o Capacity for foreign relations Rice State Power For all practical purposes recognition by other states Candidates Palestine Turkish Cyprus Somaliland Kurdistan Puerto Power ability to get someone to do something they would not Debate between realism and liberalism relative or absolute power otherwise do more important Forms military economic soft Measuring Power Correlates of War Project Composite Index of National Capabilities o Iron and steel production o Military expenditures o Military personnel o Energy consumption o Total population o Urban population Aggregate score is proportion of total power in world a state holds CINC Scores of Major Powers Military Power Economic Power Gross Domestic Product GDP total value of goods and services produced within a state GDP per Capita Other Considerations Geography o Size resources location Political development o Extractive capacity stability Resolve o One reason for gap between capabilities and power Foreign Policy Decision Making Goals Very general security economic development More specific Grand Strategy isolationism primacy Even more specific stability in Iraq fewer trade restrictions Determinants of Goals Internal sources o Leaders heads of state government officials have own o Elites business military congressional leaders have priorities agendas o Domestic Groups on almost any issue there will be an interest group External sources o Behavior of other states affects goals policies a state s agenda often set by others o Power decision meaningless without means to execute them o Geography can define what is necessary Israel possible Australia The Decision Making Process Four main steps o Define the situation what are the problems issues o Select goals o Search for policy alternatives to meet goals o Choose one policy alternative Potential Choices What policies can states choose Frequency o Cooperative 5 3 o Participation 46 8 o Diplomatic exchange 16 9 o Verbal conflict 18 4 o Non military conflict 8 0 o Military conflict 4 6 The Rational Model Assumptions Situation clearly perceived not necessarily complete info about everything but what is known is interpreted correctly Well defined goals preferences over every possible option are known ALL possible alternatives considered Cost benefit analysis used to choose best optimal alternative Criticisms of the Rational Model Intellectual practical limitations o Can t gather full info on all alternatives especially on a o Cost benefit analysis requires predicting the future which is deadline prone to error Psychological limitation o Personal biases shape goals o Situations often misperceived o Attachment to common previously used alternatives BUT rational model tends to capture something useful about the process can help identify where mistakes are made The Politics Model Competing clusters of people with different goals advisors government and military officials Goals and alternatives are interrelated groups prioritize different goals and therefore different policies Outcome power of the people advocating a position appeal of that position o Outcome not always best policy but rather the one advocated by the most influential group Politics Model Individuals Power or influence of key individuals or groups determines foreign policy choices Elements of individual power o Access to leader decision makers o Authority o Persuasiveness Politics Model Public Opinion How does public opinion matter o Identifies which issues need to be addressed o Sets constraints on policy selection o Shapes leaders opinions an dbeliefs of future leaders When does it matter o The public has knowledge of a foreign policy issue o Public opinion must be stable enough for leaders to judge what people want o The public s view must be taken into account by leaders o The time for decision must be long The Rally Around the Flag Effect Politics Model Other factors Interest groups o Lobby bribe in some states o Provide expert consultation while laws are being written o Support certain candidates during elections o May have grassroots support and or ability to influence public opinion Influential when they have significant resources and access to decision makers Brain uses shortcuts to process info tries to fit things into pre existing frameworks often rejects or misinterprets info that doesn t fit o Ex Intelligence report told Pearl Harbor commander to expect Japanese hostile action which he interpreted as sabotage Political Psychology o Leads to overreliance on historical analogies o Perception of another actor s actions colored by opinion about Groupthink individuals would rather conform to the group than be that actor right Non State Actors Introduction According to realism states are the only actors that matter They argue that international organizations merely reflect the interests of the most powerful states and no other actors wield the capabilities to be significant global players Liberals argue that international organizations can reshape state interests and subnational actors influence states and sometimes even engage in international politics directly International Organizations Usually we mean intergovernmental organizations IGOs o Established by states o Only states are members o Representatives follow state directives organizations controlled by states o Examples UN EU WTO NATO ASEAN The United Nations Established on October 24 1945 after League of Nations failed to produce collective security UN charter o Acts as constitution for organization o Outlaws affressive use of force o Creates provision for joint military operations to enforce the peace o Affirms some basic human rights Tiered design intended to reflect balance of power The UN General Assembly 193 members each with an equally weighted vote Controls budget appoints non permanent members of Security Council creates subsidiary organs Can pass resolutions which act as recommendations and expressions of international opinion but these are not legally binding Most votes require 2 3 majority UN Security Council 5 permanent member US UK France Russia China each with veto power 10