Non Nuclear WMDs Chemical Weapons A variety of chemicals that are weaponized and used in a military capacity Germany in WWI o First significant use chlorine and mustard gas used by Choking agents chlorine destroys lungs Blister agents mustard gas destroys skin and causes temporary blindness Nerve agents sarin cause paralysis and suffocation most lethal Incapacitates tear gas cause temporary incapacitation o Limited effectiveness against modern prepared militaries o Mostly effective against civilians 1952 Geneva Protocol banned use but not possession of chemical Politics of Chemical Weapons weapons Chemical Weapons Convention 1997 illegal to possess large quantities of C weapons WMD s of the Poor Easiest WMD to obtain and use by terrorist Non Nuclear WMDs Biological Weapons living organisms or toxins used to sicken or kill humans animals or plants besieged city 1346 o Mongols catapulted soldiers who died from the plague into Bacteria anthrax can be spread over a large area but aren t contagious Viruses smallpox small impact area but contagious Toxins poisons ricin used as an assassination weapons Too unpredictable for modern military use Difficult to use by terrorist groups High risk of self infection High risk of detection by criminal authorities Cannot stop from killing own supporters ethnic religious kin Politics of Biological Weapons Biological and Toxin Weapons Conventions o Bans creation of new biological weapons o Bans production of weapons capable of delivering biological weapons o No inspection mechanism due to large number of labs that work with biological agents What is Terrorism state groups Definition a threat or use of violence for political purposes by non Attempt to coerce a targeted government into changing policy o Goal is frequently the end of an occupation o Why not other goals Rely on future costs more than on present damage A tactic of the weak o I e sanctions for prosperous but military weak countries o Impact uncertain dependent on external responses and takes a long time to achieve Terrorist or Freedom Fighter Terrorist Motivations Terrorism used by weak for liberation pursued by weak The strong in charge of designating terrorist groups Terrorism is morally repugnant attacking enemy is not o Intifada 45 of Palestinians supported terrorism but 90 supported bombing of Israeli clubs and restaurants My friends can t be a terrorist but can be a freedom fighter Liberation is an objective terrorism a tactic Regime change gain control of the government o Mostly left wing groups Territorial change establishing a new state taking another state s territory o Mostly ethnic or religious secessionist groups Policy change push a government to change a specific policy o Mainly international terrorist groups Social control force domestic groups to become subservient o Tend to be socially conservative groups Maintain status quo o Many anti revolutionary groups Rationality of Terrorism Reactive terrorism is justified as a reaction to something Terrorist groups often claim their attacks are in retaliation to specific enemy acts Terrorists more likely to have been personally affected by conflict Strategic terrorism is justified because it is the only way of fighting a superior enemy campaign Terrorist Strategies I their credibility o Happens in waves 95 of suicide attacks part of long term o Aimed mainly at democracies semi democracies Terrorists want change in policy but need to convince others of o Toward government to improve bargaining position o Toward their own supporters to obtain material support manpower to suppress dissent Attrition signal a high cost of present and future violence o Hama during Second Intifada o Important considerations Salience of issue Constraints on ability to retaliate Sensitivity to costs of violence Intimidation prevent undesired behavior through threats and occasional violence o Important consideration Weak states Rough terrain Terrorist Strategies II Provocation shift support from other political actors to itself o Constraints on retaliation Spoiling destroying a peace process o When moderates on terrorists side are perceived as being strong Outbidding prove that one is more dedicated to the cause o Multiple political actors competing for one demographic group s support Suicide Terrorism Certainty of death No typical profile of groups using this strategy Suicide terrorism is more destructive Convincing signal of continued attacks Generate fear by disregarding taboos on the use of force Highly effective in destroying momentum of peace processes Responses to Terrorism Retaliate militarily o Avoid vigilante retaliation o Create hostility in affected community weaken moderates o Increase awareness of terrorist cause Retaliate through the criminal justice system o Openly provides publicity for cause secretly no deterrence o Paired with concession to moderates shows that terrorism works Encourage in group policing o Avoid the creation of extra grievances o Risk vigilante violence o Moderates might be weak or unable unwilling to accept help o Must make policy concessions to those moderates Economic Effects of Terrorism Direct costs o Physical destruction o Foregone earnings from lost lives o Foregone earnings and expense of healthcare for the injured o Nevertheless these direct costs low compared to wars and civil wars Indirect costs o Harder to quantify o Persistent terrorist campaign hurts economic output o Higher investment risk lowers FDI o Significant effect on tourism Effects of Terrorism on the Civilian Population Psychological o High incidence of PTSD especially for children o Habituation effects Importance of strong support networks and access to healthcare Social o Strengths hawks vs doves o Makes doves less dedicated to peace o Higher tolerance for authoritarian rule and human rights abuses o Increase in racism and xenophobia Civil Wars Same definition as interstate wars but at least one party is not a government Many dimensions of variation o Separatist vs control of government o Ethnic divisions vs ideological vs economic o Involvement of outside states o Number of rebel groups o Strength organization of rebels What is Ethnicity At the most basic level ethnicity is simply a social identity o Where does it come from Primordial Argument ethnic groups exist because actions toward and identification of in group out group individuals has primordial origins Social Construction Argument ethnic groups are social created by defining in group