Chapter 13 Weather Forecasting Gridpoint Gridpoint models Grid spacing Intitial conditions Interpolation LFM Model MOS MRF NAM NGM Nowcasting Numerical modeling Parameterizations Persistence forecasts Primitive equations Resolution RUC Spectral models Trend forecast UKMET Weather types WRF Key Terms Analog forecast AVN Chaos theory Climatology forecast Data assimilation Data initialization ECMWF Ensemble forecasting Eta Folklore forecasts GFS Grid Summary People can forecast the weather in a wide variety of ways They can recall folklore rhymes or they can watch the skies They can assume that today s weather will persist into tomorrow or that the trend of weather will continue They can even assume that weather will be typical from a climatological perspective These methods are hit or miss and inadequate for most modern needs Numerical weather prediction is the solving of the equations of the atmosphere a model on the computer Lewis F Richardson created the first numerical forecast model Although his forecast turned out to be wrong his overall approach was sound Modern forecasts ingest observational data take out imbalances via data assimilation and then integrate the models forward in time to obtain a forecast With these models meteorologists can make precise and accurate weather forecasts for the first time in history The LFM NCM NAM RUC WRF UKMET GFS and ECMWF are nicknames of modern numerical forecast models Statistical relationships known collectively as MOS help turn forecast model predictions into realistic forecasts for a particular location based on climatological experience Modern weather forecasting fuses computer modeling with human insight Together they save lives and protect property through increasingly accurate predictions as in the Storm of the Century in March 1993 Ensemble forecasting allows meteorologists to get many second opinions on which to base even better forecasts can become However Imperfect data imperfect knowledge of how the atmosphere works limits on computing power and chaos make forecasts go wrong Even so modern weather forecasting is one of the great achievements in modern meteorology and all of science It will continue to improve during your lifetime through new techniques such as ensemble forecasting
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