Chapter 16 Climate Forecasting ECHAM Equilibrium run Geoengineering GFDL Global climate models GCMs Hadley centre Kyoto protocol Mitigation Monthly climate forecasts MPIM NCAR Seasonal climate forecasts Sensitivity testing Transient run UCLA Key Terms Adaptation Cap and trade Carbon tax Carbon trading CCCma CCSR NIES CFS Control run CSIRO Summary Climate forecasts are different than weather forecasts Instead of precise numbers and forecasts for a particular date and time climate forecasts cover large blocks of time and give chances of changes versus normal climate Climate forecasts up to about one year in advance tend to rely on statistical relationships between climate processes such as ENSO that are known to affect climate Longer range climate forecasts rely on global climate models GCMs to generate computer based projections of future climate Unlike weather forecast models GCMs incorporate sophisticated interactions between the atmosphere ocean land and ice Research using GCMs began in the 1950s Today dozens of GCMs produce climate predictions at research centers across the globe The results of GCMs have been verified versus both past and current climate conditions The most famous climate forecasts are those associated with global warming The IPCC has coordinated and issued climate forecasts for the next century based on expectations that greenhouse gas concentrations will increase Climate Scientists and others are concerned about global warming because of the possible consequences of those temperature and precipitation changes Heat waves droughts floods intense hurricanes and species extinctions could call become more frequent common during the 21st century The consequences could be most severe for high latitude high altitude and coastal regions A globally warmed world would also be a globally changed world and in most cases not for the better In response nearly all governments have ratified the Kyoto Protocol This treaty requires industrialized nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to less than 1990 levels Even so the Kyoto Protocol by itself will not reduce warming the 21st century by a significant amount It will take future more stringent international agreements to avert the consequences of global warming during the next century Other ways to limit greenhouse gas emissions include cap and trade which is a market based solution that establishes a cap on overall emissions rather than a fixed limit on emissions by business or a carbon tax Yet another possible response is geoengineering the Earth s climate system Global warming has become a hot potato politically speaking The overheated political debate obscures a basic point the world s experts on global climate change using the best scientific tool available predict that the planet will warm during the next century and that the consequences could be severe
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