Gov Exam 3 Final Exam Review Public Opinion o Collected attitudes of citizens what the people think o Confounding opinions Multiple Publics Unstable and shifting opinion Political ignorance by constituents o Measuring public opinion polls and scientific polling Scientific polling came about in the 1930 a Individuals are selected by chance from any population supposed to be representative of population o Sampling theory sample of individuals that are selected by chance from any population that is representative with a margin of error o Sample Accuracy Pure random sample is best Sample size larger the sample greater the accuracy o Sampling error or margin of error Inversely related to sample size Bigger the sample less of an error o Random sample sample were every person ahs an equal chance of being chosen o Non random sample When people are chosen specifically because of how they would answer the specific poll o SLOP surveys Self selected listener poll an unscientific poll that is conducted by broadcast media to engage their audience by providing them an opportunity to register their opinion o Shapes of public opinion pictures on blackboard Normal bell shaped Bi Modal Skewed o Problems and limitations with polls Non attitudes doorstep opinions when people are expected to complete a survey they find a question that they don t completely understand and just answer it with a random response or opinion Illusion of saliency the impression conveyed by polls that something is important to the public when actually it is not Leading questions attempt to guide the respondent s answer Push polling when polls are conducted to sway public opinion rather than to collect and analyze response data by spreading rumors etc through the poll o Ginsberg s concerns with polling Polling has transformed public opinion Electoral Participation o Voter turnout 1 No longer a product of the efforts of concerned 2 Presentation through attitudes rather than behaviors 3 Constrained responses rather than spontaneous individuals assertion o Fiorina s culture war arguments Most Americans are not utterly and deeply divided There is no raging culture war Culture war issues have not displaced economic issues Americans are closely divided but not deeply Many of us are ambivalent and uncertain about potentially dismissive issues Most of us are moderate in views and tolerant in manner Political party leaders are more polarized that is why there is the perception of deep division So low compared to other nations because we do not force our citizens to vote o Influences on turnout Socio demographics Education income age gender marriage race ethnicity mobility homeowner status Psychological attitudes Political interest concern over election outcome political efficacy external I don t have any say in what the government does internal efficacy Do I have the capacity to learn about politics civic duty party identification legal environment registration laws and campaign environment o Rational choice perspective If benefits exceed costs than you will vote Free rider problem can reap benefits without bearing the costs o Rationality of turning out to vote Rational actor discount benefits by the probability that their one vote will make the difference Probability 00000001 0 If the probability P multiplied by the benefits B is greater than the costs C then they will vote o Why has U S voter turnout declined if it has Puzzle of participation 1960 1996 Education levels have gone up Registration requirements have become easier but not totally easy yet Declines in political connectedness Loss of social capital Rise in candidate centered campaigns More voting ineligibles than before non citizens ex felons o Why turnout is low relative to other countries Legal environment registration differences Difference sin political party environment We have more elections and they are on weekdays as opposed to weekends Campaigns and Elections emphasis on Presidential o Nomination stage Pre primary phase or invisible primary Goal is to raise money and see how much support you o Delegate selection phase or primary phase have Intra within party party competition Goal is to gain major party presidential nomination must win a majority of party s convention delegates Candidates compete in state by state presidential primary elections and caucuses Primaries and Caucuses Who can participate Closed only vote for your party Semi closed You can show up if you are registered as independent and ask for a specific party s ballot Open completely open How are delegates allocated Proportional or winner take all Democrats require proportional allocation with 15 threshold Republicans allow winner take all Front loaded Traditionally Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are held first More recently other states have been pushing up their primaries to be first to get the news coverage General candidate strategies in primary stage Start early establish an organization assess chances and campsign in early states Lower expectations for yourself raise them for your opponent o Status based strategies in the nomination stage Project a positive candidate image 1 Front runner strategy have name recognition money and organization in place survive early surprises 2 Non front runner dark horse strategy for those who hope to become a nominee focus on Iowa and NH exceed expectations money media momentum 3 Campaign as pulpit strategy o Fundraising approaches in nomination stage 1 Conventional path from 1976 2000 focus on small direct individual contributions and accept matching funds How you qualify for matching funds need to raise at least 100 000 dollars in small contributions Drawbacks you can only spend a certain amount in general and in each state which is based on population 2 Decline matching funds and rely on many small individual contributors 2000 Bush was first candidate effectively to use this path in No overall limit on spending and no state limit Drawback are if you don t have a big enough base to raise a lot of money 3 Really rich guy path decline matching funds and primarily spend your own money Could be perceived as buying the election Super PACs path available in 2012 for first time o Obama s fundraising approach in general election Obama did not accept any matching funds and spent about 350 million o Citizens United v FEC 2010 Struck down a ban on corporations and labor unions using their money to air campaign ads Kept in place a ban on contributions from
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