POS Final Exam Study Guide All key terms from the review sheet provided by Professor Jackson are highlighted CHAPTER 10 Public Opinion Public opinion Collected attitudes of citizens what people think public opinion elected officials public policy as a role in a representative democracy Confounding problems include multiple publics unstable and shifting opinions among the people and political ignorance by the public Opinions measured through scientific polling origins in the 1930s Sampling Theory sample of individuals selected by chance from any population is representative of that population with a margin of error sampling accuracy how well it represents Sampling accuracy depends upon 1 How the sample was selected pure random sample is the best option Literary Digest failure in 1936 revealed flawed polling tactics never put faith in self selected listener opinion polls SLOP survey results 2 Sample size the larger the sample if random the greater the accuracy of the results sampling error margin of error is inversely related to sample size confidence interval incorporates margin of error 95 confidence interval with Obama approval ratings Curves normal bell shaped curves show average response focused in the middle skewed curves show one side taller than the other bi modal curves show two frequently occurring responses with two humps Problems limitations with polling even with large samples 1 Problems with respondents non attitudes and door step opinions creates the illusion of saliency 2 Problems with the survey poll itself question wording might be confusing leading questions and push polling leads people to give a certain answer or response Wag the Dog Scenario efforts to manipulate public opinion staging attacks on the country engaging in war actions draw attention away from scandals at home and poor opinions of a leader s actions domestically effort to distract the public from other issues public opinion existed before the 1930s when polling data and polls originated Ginsberg s The Captive Public argues that polling has transformed public opinion 1 No longer a product of efforts of concerned individuals 2 Presentation through attitudes rather than behaviors 3 Constrained responses rather than spontaneous assertions Public has somehow lost control over public opinion in recent years Fiorina Culture War argues most Americans are not bitterly and deeply divided on issues there is no raging culture war issues have not displaced economic concerns Americans are closely divided and are not deeply divided Many are ambivalent and uncertain about potentially divisive issues most are moderate in their views and tolerant in manner there is little evidence that our ideological or policy positions are more polarized today than 20 30 years ago with economic issues remaining at the forefront Political party leaders are more polarized leading to the perception of deep divisions Scenario 1 Close elections and deeply divided electorate where greatest number of voters are either on the far left or far right Scenario 2 Close elections but not deeply divided electorate where greatest number of voters are concentrated in the middle forming a moderate majority Fiorina claims this is the correct assertion of today s public Abortion conflict majority of people consistently respond legal but only under certain circumstances huge majorities support legality of abortion in cases of rape conflicts to the woman s health and birth defects extreme pro life and pro choice lobby are out of step with most Americans for both men and women Homosexuality conflict increasing belief in civil rights for gays younger Americans more tolerant and accepting gay rights typically a minor issue for most Americans CHAPTER 11 Voting Campaigns and Elections Voter Turnout influence on socio demographics like education income age gender women more likely to vote marriage status race ethnicity mobility homeownership Psychological Attitudes Political interest or concern over the outcome of an election Political efficacy external or the thinking that public officials don t care what people like me think internal efficacy focuses on the individual s ability to follow the politics of an election long term attitudes Civic duty to one s country community party identification ID as an attitude instead of a behavior measured using survey questions Legal Environment Registration laws between states countries 70 of potentially eligible citizens are registered to vote 90 of those registered actually turn out to vote Campaign Environment State status as a swing or battleground territory if a state has Election Day registration voter turnout is generally higher in each case Why do people vote They have the resources and the skills to do so They have the interest to do so They were asked to vote by someone else Rationality of voting Rational choice economics perspective If the benefits of an activity outweigh the costs then the person will vote the free rider problem can reap the collective benefits without bearing the costs Rational actor discounts the collective benefits by probability that his her one vote will make the difference in the election outcome if probability exceeds the costs the person will vote however the result is that it is irrational to vote as one vote will likely not make a huge difference Many vote after receiving the psychological benefits civic duty etc from participating in an election U S voter turnout over past 40 years Puzzle of Participation 1960 to 1996 saw education levels rise and difficulties with voter registration decrease outcome would theoretically be that voter turnout increased over that period of time but it actually decreased Declines in political correctedness influence by wars and scandals in politics declines also in social correctedness or the loss of social capital Declines in political mobilization through candidate centered campaigns more voting ineligibles as a of voting age population mostly non citizens and ex felons who cannot vote Voter turnout is lower in the U S due to a different legal environment with registration disparities differences in political party environment with only two main parties and room for only the winning candidate in the governmental system more elections and on weekdays than most other countries leading to voter fatigue Compulsory voting collective action problem where the need to counteract immoral free riding problem introduces policies that force voter turnout by
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