NOTE REVIEW Public Opinion Public opinion o Collected attitudes of citizens what the people think o What is the role in a representative democracy Public opinion elected officials Public policy o Confounding problems Multiple publics Unstable and shifting opinion Political ignorance Measuring public opinion polls and scientific polling Sampling theory underlies as long as you select a few people taken by chance they will represent and stand for the population as a whole Sample accuracy Way it is selected pure random sample is best has the exact same and equal how well it represents chance of taking part of in the survey Sampling error o b Sample size larger the sample if random greater the accuracy o Happens when you take a subset from an entire population o Since the sample does not include all members of the population statistics on the sample such as means and quantities generally differ from parameters on the entire population o For example if one measures the height of a thousand individuals from a country of one million the average height of the thousand is typically not the same as the average height of all one million people in the country o Since sampling is typically done to determine the characteristics of a whole population the difference between the sample and population values is considered a sampling error 1 o Exact measurement of sampling error is generally not feasible since the true population values are unknown however sampling error can often be estimated by probabilistic modeling of the sample Random sample and non random sample consider the Literary Digest example Random sample every element of the population has a nonzero probability of being drawn Simple random sample SRS every element of the population has the same nonzero probability of being drawn SRS is thus a special case of a random sample SLOP surveys Based on a sample of individuals who choose to answer a poll or survey o An example would be Choosing or deciding to be interviewed in a survey while you are walking through the mall Since it is self selective there is no real weight to it or represent everyone because we only get information from people who want to participate Shapes of public opinion normal skewed bimodal Normal very valuable to pollsters o Tend to support moderate options for the government Skewed opinions of a majority of the respondents cluster on one side of an issue o o depicts less diversity Bimodal an equal amount of people that favor both sides Suggest much disagreement toward an issue o Problems and limitations with polls something on the spot not being truthful a Problems with respondents non attitudes doorstep opinions making up o Illusion of saliency getting answers from people who actually thought about it or like it and the pollster has this illusion that people know about the information but all the answers count equally and responds are equal but THAT MAY NOT BE APPROPRIATE OR ACCURATE b Problems with the survey poll Always pay attention to the question wording and ordering Leading questions push polling 1 2 3 How much is being spent on Welfare assistance to the poor Too little 13 59 About right 25 25 Too much 62 16 o Roper Question Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened o Gallup Question Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened or do you feel certain that it happened BETTER QUESTION THIS IS THE What you should get out of this is that they way you pose a question is how you want someone to react to a question So if you want a certain respond to come out in your favor you will pose a question that is bias towards the answer you are looking for Ginsbery s concerns with polling o Polling has transformed public opinion 4 No longer a product of the efforts of concerned individuals 5 Presentation through attitudes rather than behaviors 6 Constrained responses rather than spontaneous assertions o Has the public lost control of public opinion o How much should intensity of feeling count No right or wrong answer to this Fiorina s Culture War arguments o Are Americans bitterly and deeply divided in their public opinion s about issues o Is a culture war based on issues of morality religion and sexuality dividing us o Has a culture war replaced new deal style economic issues o According to Fiorina most Americans are NOT bitterly and deeply divided o Culture war issues have NOT displaced economic issues o Americans are closely divided but not deeply divided o Many of us are ambivalent and uncertain about potentially divisive issues o Most of us are moderate in views and tolerant in manner little evidence that our ideological or policy positions are more polarized today than they were 20 30 years ago o Economic issues Tend to think the same o Why the perception of deep divisions Political party leaders are more polarized Close Elections and Deeply Divided Electorate of citizens Liberal Democratic Party Elites Republican Party Elites Conservative A lot of voters are participating and they are split between the two sides because of the dip in the middle A lot of voters are participating but because there is a hump they are not very divided on the issue What critics say Close Elections but not Deeply Divided Electorate of citizens Liberal Democratic Party Elites Republican Party Elites Conservative What critics of Fiorina argue Independents and People Who Lean slightly Democratic or Republican Strong Democratic Identifiers Strong Republican Identifiers of citizens Liberal Democratic party Republican party elites and activists elites and activists Moderate Conservative Do views on homosexuality divide us Increasing belief in civil rights for gays Younger Americans more tolerant and accepting Gay rights typically a minor issue for most Americans What about abortion o A majority consistently respond legal but only under certain circumstances huge majorities support legality of abortion in cases of woman s health rape and serious defect o The extreme pro life and extreme pro choice lobby are out of step with most Americans both men and women Electoral Participation Explaining voter turnout influences on turnout socio demographics psychological attitudes etc a Socio demographics o Education o Income o Age o Gender o Marriage o Race ethnicity o Mobility o Homeowner status Relationship between socio demographic characteristics and vote turnout o Multi variable model attempts
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