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Gov Exam 3/Final Exam Review- Public Opiniono Collected attitudes of citizens (what the people think)o Confounding opinions “Multiple Publics” Unstable and shifting opinion Political ignorance by constituentso Measuring public opinion polls and scientific polling “Scientific” polling came about in the 1930’a Individuals are selected by chance from any population (supposed to be representative of population)o Sampling theory – sample of individuals that are selected by chance from any population that is “representative” (with a margin of error)o Sample Accuracy  Pure random sample is best Sample size – larger the sample, greater the accuracyo Sampling error or margin of error Inversely related to sample size Bigger the sample, less of an erroro Random sample – sample were every person ahs an equal chance of being choseno Non-random sample – When people are chosen specifically because ofhow they would answer the specific pollo SLOP surveys (Self-selected listener poll) – an unscientific poll that is conducted by broadcast media to engage their audience by providing them an opportunity to register their opinion o Shapes of public opinion: (pictures on blackboard) Normal, bell shaped Skewed Bi Modal o Problems and limitations with polls “Non-attitudes”/”doorstep opinions” – when people are expected to complete a survey, they find a question that they don’t completely understand and just answer it with a random response or opinion Illusion of saliency – the impression conveyed by polls that something is important to the public when actually it is not.  Leading questions – attempt to guide the respondent’s answer Push polling – when polls are conducted to sway public opinion rather than to collect and analyze response data, by spreading rumors, etc., through the pollo Ginsberg’s concerns with polling Polling has transformed public opinion: 1) No longer a product of the efforts of concerned individuals 2) Presentation through attitudes rather than behaviors 3) Constrained responses rather than spontaneous assertiono Fiorina’s culture war arguments Most Americans are not utterly and deeply divided. There is no raging culture war Culture war issues have not displaced economic issues Americans are closely divided, but not deeply. Many of us are ambivalent and uncertain about potentially dismissive issues Most of us are moderate in views and tolerant in manner Political/party leaders are more polarized that is why there is the perception of deep division.- Electoral Participationo Voter turnout So low compared to other nations because we do not force our citizens to vote.o Influences on turnout Socio-demographics Education, income, age, gender, marriage, race/ethnicity, mobility, homeowner status Psychological attitudes Political interest, concern over election outcome, political efficacy (external – “I don’t have any say in what the government does”), internal efficacy (“Do I have the capacity to learn about politics), civic duty, party identification, legal environment (registration laws), and campaign environment.o Rational choice perspective If benefits exceed costs than you will vote Free-rider problem can reap benefits without bearing the costso “Rationality” of turning out to vote “Rational” actor discount benefits by the probability that their one vote will make the difference. Probability ~= .00000001 ~=0 If the probability (P) multiplied by the benefits (B) is greater than the costs (C) then they will vote.o Why has U.S. voter turnout declined – if it hasPuzzle of participation (1960-1996)Education levels have gone upRegistration requirements have become easier (but not totally easy yet)Declines in “political connectedness”Loss of social capital Rise in candidate centered campaignsMore voting ineligibles than before (non-citizens/(ex) felons)o Why turnout is low relative to other countriesLegal environment – registration differencesDifference sin political party environmentWe have more elections and they are on weekdays as opposed to weekends- Campaigns and Elections (emphasis on Presidential)o Nomination stage Pre-primary phase or “invisible primary” Goal is to raise money and see how much support you haveo Delegate selection phase or primary phase Intra (within party) party competition Goal is to gain major party presidential nomination, must win amajority of party’s convention delegates Candidates compete in state-by-state presidential primary elections and caucuses Primaries and Caucuses Who can participate? Closed: only vote for your party Semi-closed: You can show up if you are registered as independent and ask for a specific party’s ballot  Open: completely open How are delegates allocated? Proportional or winner-take-all Democrats require proportional allocation with 15% threshold Republicans allow winner-take-all “Front-loaded” Traditionally Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are held first.. More recently, other states have been pushing up their primaries to be first to get the news coverage. General candidate strategies in primary stage: “Start early” (establish an organization, assess chances and campsign in early states) Lower expectations for yourself/raise them for your opponent Project a positive candidate imageo Status-based strategies in the nomination stage: 1) Front-runner strategy: have name recognition, money, andorganization in place… survive early surprises 2) Non-front runner/dark horse strategy (for those who hope to become a nominee) – focus on Iowa and NH, exceed expectations  money, media, momentum 3) Campaign as pulpit strategyo Fundraising approaches in nomination stage 1) “Conventional” path (from 1976-2000): focus on small, direct individual contributions and accept “matching funds” How you qualify for matching funds: need to raise at least 100,000 dollars in small contributions Drawbacks: you can only spend a certain amount in general and in each state which is based on population 2) Decline “matching funds” and rely on many small individual contributors Bush was first candidate effectively to use this path in 2000 No overall limit on spending and no state limit Drawback are if you don’t have a big enough


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FSU POS 1041 - Gov Exam 3/Final Exam Review

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