Study guide Public Opinion Public opinion Confounding problems Measuring public opinion polls and scientific polling and be familiar with such things as samples sampling theory sample accuracy sampling error or margin of error etc random sample and non random sample consider the Literary Digest example SLOP surveys shapes of public opinion for example normal skewed and bimodal problems and limitations with polls for example non attitudes doorstep opinions illusion of saliency leading questions push polling Ginsberg s concerns with polling Fiorina s Culture War arguments including close elections and deeply divided electorate close elections but not deeply divided electorate etc March 28 2013 The Role of Public Opinion be an informed consumer what to look for what can go wrong Public opinion Collected attitudes of people across U S citizens what the people think But the question is What should be the role in the representative democracy Most of us think that our opinions matter YES So it goes Public opinion elected officials public policy Confounding Problems o Multiple publics o unstable and shifting opinion o political ignorance all is rational if you don t have incentives in place All overestimate peoples political views and underestimate peoples intelligence Potential Problems limitations with polling even if large sample problems with respondents non attitudes doorstep opinions quickie Response rates are much better when women conduct poll middle aged women are less threatening especially if she is of the same race ethnicity as you Doorstep opinion making up their opinion non attitudes people are making things up on the spot MAN VS WOMAN who is more likely to say I dunnooo I haven t thought about this Woman are And Men are more likely to make up an answer o n the spot Men are statistically more educated politically This isn t fair because both respond differently and people aren t penalized for guessing Salient means its important to you Illusion of saliency Do people know what they re talking about Push polling question wording and ordering leading questions Are there dangers in political efforts to manufacture public opinion SLOP Self Selected Listener Opinion Poll SLOP You can select yourself into the survey but they are only for entertainment value unscientific Margin of error aka sample error When you want to find the population based on a predetermined margin of error Simple random sample Every individual in the population must have an equal chance at getting randomly selected into the subset Mail sample Great advantage is that they are very cheap to conduct but the response is very low Even if they are randomly chosen Low response rate makes them prone to bias You have no control over the survey environment Telephone interview Not as costly as face to face interviews They have become more accurate Not everyone is listed used to only look at the phone book just started doing random number sampling First 4 numbers are similar to a geographic area Not everyone has landlines and people can have cellphones registered to other areas than where they live The feeling of anonymity makes people more truthful with their response but people may try to alter their answers based on where the person is calling from People calling can tell if the person they are speaking with is white or black YES The movie Wag the Dog Where the gov t creates a fake war to create more patriotism Ginsperb s captive public polling has transformed public opinion mass opinion promotes state power 1 No longer a product of the efforts of concerned individuals 2 Presentation through attitudes rather than behaviors 3 Constrained responses rather than spontaneous assertions 4 Polling has rendered public opinion less dangerous less disruptive more permissive and perhaps more amenable to governmental control he says 5 virtually all widespread political concerns Mr Ginsberg claims have been deliberately created by skilled lobbyists and propagandists representing groups that stand to benefit materially or politically from the principles in question As evidence Mr Ginsberg presents two examples the nuclear freeze was conceived by liberal activists as a way to keep millions of Yuppies from supporting President Reagan and the well organized right to life campaign was simply a move by conservative politicians to forge a winning alliance between Catholics and Protestant evangelicals http www nytimes com 1987 02 08 books suckers for elections html pagewanted all src pm Fiorina Culture War Are Americans bitterly and deeply divided in their public opinions about issues Is a culture war based on issues of morality religion and sexuality dividing us Fiorna Americans are not bitterly divided No raging culture war Culture war issue are not displaced economic issues Americans are closely divided but not deeply divided Many of us are ambivilant and uncertain about potentially divisive issues Most of us are moderate in views and tolerant in manner little evidence that our ideological or policy positions are not so polarized today than they were 30 years ago So why the perception of deep divisions political parties are more polarized What about Abortion a majority consistently respond legal but only under certain circumstances huge majorities support legality of abortion in cases of women s health rape and serious defect Differences b w men and women on abortion are none The Extreme pro life and pro choice lobby are out of step with most Americans Do views on Homosexuality Divide us Increasing belief in civil rights for gays Younger Americans more tolerant and accepting Gay rights are really not all that an important issue for most people Voter Turnout Topics What are the influences of voter turnout Is it rational for anyone to even vote Why has turnout declined If it has Why is U S turnout low relative to that of other nations The US is still the only nation that still requires citizens to register themselves Highest voter turnout is presidential election Influences on Socio demographics Education people in other countries turn out very similar to others with education in western countries Income Age Gender women vote way more than men for nearly 30 years now Married people vote more than single people Race ethnicity anlgos anglo whites vote most latinos lag and so do asaians asain americans do so more Mobility if you ve moved within the last few years you are not likely to vote because they are preoccupied Homeowner status
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