Political Science 1041 Final Review Public Opinion Public Opinion Opinions that the government finds necessary to heed Views prevalent among the general public Collective attitudes of citizens what people think Every government has to pay attention to public opinion in some fashion Democracies find prudent to heed potential voters and those who can sway potential voters because an election is coming Public opinion has an affect on public policy Public opinion attracts all this attention because of its effect on political behavior mostly voting which is the main political act of the great majority of citizens Confounding Problems There are multiple publics questions the idea of a singular liberal public realm where all citizens come together to discuss matters of common interest and concern Unstable and shifting opinion Political ignorance Information shortcutter cue If you know someone is a democrat you can make a vote don t need to spend time watching the news when you can just go along with someone else s vote just because they are the same party Measuring Public Opinion Public opinion polls Scientific polling tool for systematically investigating the opinions of ordinary people based on random samples o Public sentiments such as marches rallies and riots could not be taken at face value because they said nothing bout the views of the majority that stayed home Sampling Theory sample of individuals selected by chance from any population is representative of that population with a margin of error o Typically a thousand people are in a random sample survey Sample Accuracy how well it represents o Way it is selected pure random sample is best o Sample size larger the sample if random greater the accuracy Sampling error margin of error inversely related to sample size the larger the sample size the larger the margin of error Random sampling and non random sampling Random sampling subjects all have an equal chance of being selected out of the population being researched o Random selection and random assignment for a survey that leads to more accurate results compared to the population o Are illustrative of the entire population Non random sampling A sample of units where the selected units in the sample have an unknown probability of being selected and where some units of the target population may even have no chance at all of being in the sample o Not reliable Literary Digest example sent out 10 million postcard ballots to names and addresses taken from telephone brooks voter registration lists club rosters and lists of automobile owners and mail order customers The returned cards split 57 percent for Republican Landon and 43 percent to Democrat Roosevelt who was running for a second term On Election Day Roosevelt defeated Landon 62 percent to 38 percent Sample was badly biased the rich those who could afford cars and telephones were more likely to vote Republican They left out the middle lower working class who didn t have phones or cars Gallup Poll followed more sophisticated sampling principles and drawing on a mush smaller sample accurately predicted Roosevelt s landslide victory SLOP Surveys Self Selected Listener Opinion Poll Based on a sample of individuals who choose to answer a poll or survey vs a random sample of the population which is based on the variables of a population An example of a SLOP poll would be choosing or declining to be interviewed in a survey while you are walking through the mall Because the SLOP poll is self selective there is no way that the poll will hold any real weight or represent the whole population because we only get information on those who choose to do an interview versus the people who decline interviews A better way to conduct a poll is through random sampling Shapes of Public Opinion Normal bee curve shaped o A symmetrical bell shaped distribution of opinions centered on a single mode or most frequent response Skewed everyone is giving the same answer o An estimate trickle but generally bail shaped distribution of opinions its a nod or most frequent response lies off to one side Bi modal people are giving two answers frequently at the same level 2 peaks o Addition vision of opinions that shows two responses been chosen about as frequently as each other Problems and limitations with polls Non attitudes doorstep opinion the respondent has never given a moment s thought to the issue but now that a question has been asked they will give some kind of response that might not be their real opinion they say it just to give an answer o When people are expected to complete a survey they find a question they don t completely understand and just answer it with a random response or opinion Illusion of saliency The impression conveyed by polls that something is important to the public when actually it is not Leading questions A question that prompts or encourages the desired answer o Attempt to guide the respondent s answer o Question wording and ordering Push polling the use of loaded questions in a supposedly objective telephone opinion poll during a political campaign in order to bias voters against an opposing candidate o When polls are conducted to sway public opinion rather than to collect and analyze response data by spreading rumors etc through the poll o Can be used to shape the opinion of the person responding to the poll Ginsberg s concerns with polling Can t truly be a Democratic development Says polling makes public opinion a subsidized matter and it is now based on attitude and not behavior Polling has transformed public opinion No longer a product of the efforts of concerned individuals Presentation through attitudes rather than behaviors Constrained responses rather than spontaneous assertions Fiorina s Culture War Arguments Fiorina The simple truth is that there is no Culture War in the United States According to Fiorina most Americans are not bitterly and deeply divided Red Blue States are closely connected on many issues and divided on some Nothing to garner a culture war or polarization Americans are closely divided but not deeply divided Many of us are uncertain about potentially divisive issues abortion Most of us are moderate in views and tolerant in matter little evidence that our ideological or policy positions are more polarized today than they were 20 30 years ago Economic issues remain important Why the perception of deep divisions o Political party leaders are more polarized Views of homosexuality divide us to some extent
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