Source of Public Opinion Socializing Agents o Family o Self Interest o Level of education College graduate age 65 and older are more than three times more likely to favor gay marriage than are seniors with less education Among those age 50 64 college grads are twice as likely to favor gay marriage as there less educated counterparts o School Education and school also raise political efficacy which is the belief that citizens can make a difference by acting politically o Social Group Church more than eight to ten opponents of gay marriage 82 say it runs counter to their religious belief o Media Function of the Mass Media Measuring Publix Opinion Socialization Teaches values and orientation to fit into culture Also Re socializes Ex sexual morality as displayed by media over time Sampling Error Arises in a survey as a result of relying on a sample of the larger population that is too small Don t ask enough people Margin Error A random sample of 1 500 Americans would fall within 3 of national opinion 95 of the time Selection Bias Occurs when a sample systematically includes or excludes people with certain attitudes Such a survey will NOT be representative of the larger population Measurement Error Arises from attempting to measure something as subjective as opinion Question wording can be confusing leading oversimplified How can question wording impact opinion on Abortion The limits of Public Opinion Americans are uninformed o On many issues people have little information in the US and other countries o Information costs are high Public Opinion generally uninformed but o Issue Publics group of people particularly affected by or concerned with a specific issue Many of the opinions expressed in polls are not strongly held o Public may say one thing but when asked again may seem to say something else o Non attitudes doorstep opinions Public Opinion s Not Ideological Ideology Belief system in which one or more organizing principles connect the individuals views on a wide range of issues Political Elites tend to have well structured ideologies Mass public ordinary citizens usually are NOT Ideological Characteristics of Public Opinion Public opinion inconsistent Ex California wants a do over on same sex marriage vote Sentiments do not always match principles people claim to endorse No clear mandate may only provide confusion Why this inconsistency o Ignorance inaccurate information hypocrisy o Americans are more pragmatic than absolute in their belief The Role of Representation Power of public opinion Does it influence public policy o It can accurately reflect publics attitudes and concerns o In the aggregate very stable o Clear trends are often followed by government The example of gun control o NRA vs public US favors gun control o Theory Public opinion of their constituents is key for members of Congress Anti gun lobby not as intense as pro gun lobby Result No new gun controls measures What about recently Defining Some Terms Franchise The right to vote Suffrage Another term for franchise or the right to vote A Brief History of Franchise in the Us Constitution left voter eligibility to the states o White male property owners Universal white male suffrage by eve of Civil War Women s Suffrage Women s Suffrage was also a slow process o 1890 Women could vote in Wyomin o 1920 Women gained the right to vote in every state 19th Amendment International Comparison of Suffrage Americans vote at much lower levels than people in other countries The measurement of turnout voters o In US measured by Numbers of people for president number of people in voting age population Includes felons and unregistered How American Institutions Decrease Turnout Calculations are different in other countries o Registered population Compulsory versus Motor Voter o Votes are sometimes counted differently Frivolous and vulgar votes tossed Voting is compulsory in some countries o Australia and Belgium fine nonvoters o Greek law allows for imprisonment of nonvoters o Italy public shame Compulsion raises turnout by about 15 Elections are held on Tuesday other countries often hold them on Sundays or holidays US has several elections Registration sometimes can lead to jury duty Why Has American Turnout Declined Puzzle Why has turned declined when obstacles have been eliminated o Pre Civil Rights era barriers are gone Voting Rights Act 24th Amendment Poll taxes Literacy test o Other reforms make access to voting easier Absentee Bilingual Ballots o Declining Personal Benefits o Declining Mobilization supports to participate in politics o Declining Social Connectedness Efforts of Parties groups and activists to encourage their Compositional Effect A changed in a groups composition rater than a change in a groups behavior Immigration Social Connectedness The degree to which individuals are integrated into society Bowling Alone Civic disengagement Is Low Turnout a Problem Three arguments say it is not o Conservative Argument expect low turnout if there is no controversial issue masses don t vote o Elitist Argument quality of electoral decisions Is higher if the o Cynical Argument elections are charades and do not matter Evaluating the Arguments Turnout Some nonvoters are content others alienated The same goes for voters High turnout can men high approval of the political order or serious dissatisfaction with it Raising turnout will not dumb down the electorate Low turnout can make the actual electorate less representative but not as much as assumed Bottom Line low turn is caused for concern but not despair Outside the Voting Booth Citizens participate in many ways o Many work in campaigns contact public officials volunteer in their community protest o Contribute money attend local board meetings and engage in political Why are these more attractive than voting o Frequency of elections political culture temporary activism protest are a regular part of American politics The Nature and Origin of Mass Public Opinion Opinion information predisposition Info from elites Predisposition whichever socializing agent INFORMATION PREDISPOSITIONAND OPINION Citizens are dependent upon unseen and usually unknown others for most of their information Most of this information filters down from political elites Political elite one who devotes themselves largely twosome aspect of politics or public affairs The information that reaches the masses tends to be stereotyped Stereotype a presentation of an item that is short simple and highly thematic Why
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