POS4413 01 26 2012 Hangrove and Nelson Cycles in 20th century historical determinism or simply after the fact observations Preparation proposals for change reform ideas circulating articulate and lay groundwork for Achievement heart of cycle direct product of Crisis e g Great Depression can break the cyclic flow Some presidents mismatch the mood times o Taft and Truman presidencies of stalemate Their agenda didn t match public mood Skill that modern presidents need most strategic sense of grain of history Clinton W Bush Obama PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2 major stages 1 Nomination stage speeches fundraising base creating a staff visiting key states and members of congress for 2012 elections mainly on Republican side a Pre primary phase or invisible primary b Delegate selection phase primary phase Intra party competition i To gain major party pres ii Want to accumulate maximum number of party s convention delegates 2012 GOP 2 286 delegates 1 144 iii Candidates compete in state by state presidential primary a majority elections and caucuses 1 1968 elections was when this began Humphries sitting VP c National party conventions 2 General election stage the goal is to win enough majority states in electoral votes series of state by state winner take all votes Need 270 of 538 100 Senate 435 House 3 D C Aftermath of 68 Democratic Nat l Convention McGovern Fraser Commission New guidelines for delegate selection o Improve representativeness of delegates o Open up selection process to rank and file the public not just elite and party bosses To describe Primaries and Caucuses who can participate Closed Primary only registered voter for particular party can vote Open Primary anyone can vote for any party s candidate In some states independents can vote for either party How are delegates allocated proportional or winner take all Dems Require proportional allocation with 15 threshold o Candidate must get more than 15 of votes to get delegates Reps Allow winner take all although attempt to require proportional in 2012 for states holding an early primary caucus General Candidate Strategies cont 1 31 12 lower expectations for yourself raise them for your opponents Project a positive candidate image paid and free earned mass media start early advertising Especially during primaries because everyone running has same common objectives all for republican democrat party so if image is bad candidate is easily replaceable Social Psychological Model of Vote Choice Candidate image Party Identification Vote choice Issues 3 Status based strategies 1 Non front runner darkhorse strategy exceed expectations money media and momentum the 3 M s Rick Santorum Obama Focus on Iowa and or NH and 2 Front runner strategy Have name recognition and organizations in place and survive any early surprises amass delegates Mitt Romney Hillary Clinton Obama as incumbent 3 Campaign as pulpit strategy go I without intention of winning but want to get their message objectives out there seems to enjoy running for president Ron Paul Fundraising approaches for a nomination campaign fec gov disclosurep pnational do 1 Conventional path from 1976 2000 focus on small individual contributors and accept matching funds How do you qualify People donate money in small amounts i e tax form and government matches these small amounts Legitimize candidates 20 people 20 states 400 250 100 000 o 1 000 1250 Drawbacks overall and state by state spending limits 56M overall in 2008 60M in 2012 if taken can t spend more than 50K of own money in 2008 McCain Clinton and Obama refused matching funds John Edwards did take funds No candidate in 2012 election has accepted matching funds 2 George W Bush path rely on many small individual contributors and decline matching funds Network so much thousands of donors for checks of 1000 or less that candidate is able to surpass amount of funds that would be possible just by matching funds Bush was 1st candidate effectively to use this path in 2000 Amount any 1 individual can contribute to a candidate is 2 500 for 2012 o PACs more important in congressional elections however Super PACs are very big for presidential elections Advantages Do not abide by state by state limits Drawbacks None but need to be able to tap into large list of All 2008 candidates followed this lead also true for 2012 3 Really rich guy path spend own cannot receive matching funds I e Romney in 08 hybrid of this and George W Bush path contributors nominations Advantages Drawbacks General election Campaign Finance 1976 2004 candidates used special fund of 80M and that s what was used to finance campaign for general election Comes from tax payer dollars In 2004 Kerry and Bush each accepted 74 6 M of taxpayer money to finance general election campaign which started after party s respective convention but could not spend more 2008 Obama denied these funds and raised own money 400 000M McCain took the funds didn t get as much publicity commercials etc What is Hard Regulated by campaign finance laws 1 Strict hard limits on the sixe of any single hard contribution to a candidate raised to 2 000 per election in 2002 and indexed to inflation 2 500 for 2011 12 a PAC or a Nat l party committee 2 Small contributions from individual citizens are original source of all hard flows Hard could and can be used for express advocacy can be expressed in any way on BB Individual citizen PAC Nat l part Committees What was is soft money Fell outside limits of federal law party building Basically any entity could make soft Congress and FEC in late 1970s allowed Nat l party committees to raise for Contributions corporations unions individuals bumper stickers etc NO LIMITS on contribution size Parties and candidates exploited issue advocacy loophole rather than express advocacy VOTE FOR Can say anything but VOTE ELECT DEFEAT o Anything else is issue advocacy Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 McCain Feingold Banned national political parties from raising and spending so called soft money McConnell v FEC 2003 upheld Raised from 1 000 to 2 000 maximum individual hard contribution to a candidate per election indexed to inflation McConnell v FEC 2003 upheld 527 Loophole in 2004 election What are 527s Tax exempt organizations that can raise soft contributions 527s raised more than 400M in 2004 Most are advocacy groups that pay for issue advocacy ads and voter mobilization efforts parallel to presidential campaign but not with the actual presidential campaign File their