March 27 2012 I The Economy Team EOP Presidents mini bureaucracy A Council of Economic Advisers CEA 1 Tend to serve only a few years B 1946 Full Employment Act C Dr Alan Krueger current chair 1 On leave from Princeton University II National Security Council 1947 A Statutory members are President VP Secs Of State Defense B National Security Adviser President s Assistant 1 Most important one in history Henry Kissinger a Nixon administration b Staff 100 people 2 General James Jones was replaced by Tom Donilon and NS staff 3 Staff more important than Adviser C Vice President 1 A throw away job a After 1950s it wasn t b LBJ Nixon Ford Gore H W Bush 2 Historically people had unflattering vision of VP 3 Eisenhower began to upgrade job with Nixon a Attended everything b During frequent illness Nixon presided over proceedings 4 Walter Mondale as Carter s VP a Senator from Minnesota b Had more experience than prev Gov Carter c Could attend participate everything d Helped plan strategies e Fully engaged 5 Gore 6 Cheney a Unprecedented influence power President and the Bureaucracy I Why frustrating difficult relationship s for presidents A Ironic because President top of the Federal bureaucracy II Federal Bureaucracy recent decades A Myth Federal bureaucracy has been GROWING rapidly in terms of number of employees over B Number of federal bureaucrats reached its peak over 20 years ago C Per capita in decline for many decades with recent uptick D Growth in number of gov t employees has been at the state local level E Figure 8 1 8 2 Changes in Federal Civilian Employment graph 1 Decline since 1990s recent uptick III President s appointment power quite limited A Only appoints about 4 000 or so of 2 8 million employees 001 1 Most are civil service merit positions B Selection criteria may restrict C People refuse the positions 1 Don t want to disclose financial information D Even appointees go native IV President Confronts A SOPs red tape fragmentation B Communication failures both up down C The institutional imperative D iron triangles Congress Interest Group favorable policy execution lobbies Congress for agency support Bureaucracy V Reorganization power but VI More generally confronts a competing principal in Congress that competes for control of A Congress must approve B Likely opposed by affected agency dept bureaucratic agents A Congress 1 Creates abolishes departments and agencies and can transfer their functions 2 Writes and passes the laws that bureaucrats administer 3 power of the purse controls their budgets funding 4 Engages in oversight e g hearings investigations 5 IS there WILL be there institutional permanence 6 Senate must confirm many presidential appointees VII President does have Central Clearance via OMB A Budgetary legislative regulatory clearance March 29 2012 Public Opinion Study Extra Credit Opportunity Make an appointment http polisci fsu edu SPRING SIGN UP Monday April 2nd Friday April 6th Pepper Institute President and Congress I Bond Fleisher 2 sets of factors explain variation in presidential success in Congress what the president does and how he she does it e g skill success determined by results of last election partisan and A Presidency centered explanation professional reputation public prestige ideological make up of Congress B Congress centered explanation C Ex Johnson master of the Congress 1 1964 Senate 69D 31R each party in Congress over past 45 years increasingly small among of ideological diversity II Within A Why Ideological moderates are basically extinct Ex Amelia Snow 1 2 Differences between parties have grown 3 19650s from the south conservative Democrats today converted party identification changed conservative Republicans are in the south 4 Today relatively conservative and unified Republican party faces relatively liberal and unified Democratic party 5 Base of president s support will be from his her own party party arithmetic is decisive B Figure 6 5 shows widening ideological gap between the parties 1 Senate House parties are separating dramatically III Congressional Quarterly has been studying the partisan behavior shown by patterns in House and Senate floor votes since 1953 It has benn increasing IV Defining feature of the 2nd half of 20th century and continuing into the 21st century A Divided party government control of presidency and both houses of Congress not in hands of same party B 1832 2000 only 68 168 years had divided government C 1900 1950 22 26 national elections resulted in unified party government D 1952 1998 16 24 produced divided government E Of the 8 presidential elections from 1968 1996 only 2 produced unified government F 2000 briefly 2002 and 2004 unified government under Bush G 2006 divided government again H 2008 unified under Obama I 2012 divided government again V Why has the U S tended to have divided government A Scholars have offered at least 3 major explanations for divided government 1 Underlying causal factor in each is split ticket voting perhaps weakened party loyalties a pre condition but why did do people split tickets a First 2 major explanations of divided government accounted for Republican presidents and Democratic congresses Power of congressional incumbency withstand national Republican tides in 1970s and 1980s democratic congressional incumbents could single minded seekers of re election through Continuous campaign of advertising credit claiming and position taking Mayhew Franking privileges Huge personal staffs 2 voters saw Republicans as party of presidential issues of peace and Jacobson s explanation prosperity national issues of defense and the economy Democrats as the party of local concerns and service to of the district a but along come the 94 96 98 elections democratic presidents republican congresses 3 Balancing explanation a Opt for ideological and policy moderation by splitting tickets to balance their vote b Ex Dole v Clinton Fiorina some voters purposefully cast divided split votes April 3 2012 VI Who prefers divided government Moderates A Consequences of divided government 1 Inefficient and ineffective 2 Obscures accountability 3 Voter imposed checks balances VII What to do as president when confronted with divided government A go public option 1 bully in the pulpit Influence of national conditions on congressional elections I 2 traditional rules of thumb A Party of presidential winner picks up congressional seats in presidential year 1 Since 1980 8 on average in House 2 in Senate B