The American Presidency POS 4413 Study Guide I Studying the Presidency Presidency a Goals Of social science difficulties in building theories about the Development and testing of theory Theory generalized explanation for the behavior or outcome of Hypothesis tentative statement or educated guess that follows a interest theory Theory Hypothesis Test with data Difficulties Decision making process are closed Fewer sources and all or at least most share goal of advancing president and his her agenda Quantative data Small N problem Only 13 modern presidents b How do we learn about presidencies and what kinds of info data are available Presidential election data Approval ratings Success rates in Congress Veto data Judicial appointment data c What factors make study of the Presidency difficult from social science perspective King Argues We need much less inclusive and more specific theoretical concepts a few precise or even incorrect theories would serve discipline better Need for parsimonious explanations explain the most with the least Studying individual presidents or perhaps even using the president as the unit of analysis wont take us far in terms of building theory II Presidential Leadership and Conceptions Models of the Presidency a Theories of Presidential power Constitutional Strict Constructionist inconsistent with modern president Taft President powers limited to those explicitly listed in constitution of granted by Congress forbidden by the constitution or by congressional laws T Roosevelt President can do anything not Stewardship Prerogative Lincoln President can do not only those things that aren t forbidden but also those things that are explicitly forbidden when in national interest Constitutional Dictator b Brief historical overview of growth of the office into the modern presidency Americans were accustomed to presidents with active domestic policy agendas expand gov t programs or contract them Changed 19th century with rise of progressive movement FDR Hundred Days Great Depression WWII Congress passed 15 major laws that transformed the role of the federal gov t in the economy Recovery from the Depression c Roles of the modern president Rosstier s discussion of constitutional and extra constitutional roles Constitutional Powers Chief of State ceremonial symbolic Chief Executive Chief administrator Chief legislator Chief Diplomat Commander in chief Extra Constitutional Roles Chief of political power Manager of the economy Voice of the people Public Presidency Wilson Protector of Peace World Leader d Evolution in conceptions models of the modern presidency Nelson s 2 Questions 2 Questions How strong is the presidency empirical question Is the presidential strength good or bad Heroic superman or textbook model 1940s Savior Model 1960s Preference for activist liberal President Implicit assumptions that the office will always be occupied by a good man Strengthen the presidency benefit the country Richard Newstadt 1960 Presidential Power Satan Model Late 1960s Early 1970s Imperial Presidency Presidency is strong which is dangerous Product of Vietnam War and Watergate LBJ Nixon Danger of pathological personality types in the White House Samson Model Late 1970s Weak Administration Product of Ford and Carter Growing gap between expectations and capacity e Doctrine of the Unitary Executive vested in the President by Article II expansive view of executive powers Article II opens The executive power shall be vested in A President of the United States of America f Skowronek s discussion of Presidential leadership in Political Time 5 Political Regime Eras Jeffersonian 1800 1828 Jacksonian 1828 1860 Republican 1860 1932 New Deal 1932 1980 Reagan 1980 Political Time Sequence Politics of Reconstruction outsider opponent and pre existing regime vulnerable Jefferson Jackson FDR Reagan a Discontent with established order and through realigning election s displace long established majority party from dominant position Politics of Articulation a Insider Affiliate and regime resilient e g LBJ and H W Bush most frequently occurring situation for presidents Politics of preemption outsider opponent and regime resilient e g Wilson Eisenhower Nixon Clinton The wildcards of political history Politics of Disjunction inside affiliate and regime vulnerable e g Hoover and Carter a Impossible leadership situation dealing with breakdown of old regime with which they are affiliated Carter dealing with breakdown of New Deal Democratic coalition and New Deal Great society solutions III Presidential Elections a Stages Phases of Modern Presidential Selection Process Nomination Election b Modern Nomination Process Importance of McGovern Fraser Commission New guidelines for delegates selection Improve representatives of delegates a b Open up selection process to rank and file Roles of Primaries and Caucuses and understanding of different types a Who can participate Open or closed b How are delegates allocated Proportional or c Democrats require proportional allocation with 15 winner take all threshold d Republicans allow winner take all although an attempt to require proportional in 2012 for stats holding an early primary caucus Strategic Considerations and different strategies Start Early Lower expectations for yourself raise them for your opponents Project a positive candidate image 3 Status Based Strategies a 1 Non Front runner Darkhorse focus on Iowa and or NH and exceed expectations cid 224 Money media and momentum b 2 Front runner strategy have name recognition and or organization in place and survive any easily surprises c 3 Campaign as pulpit strategy Nomination Fundraising Approaches Conventional Path 1976 2000 focus on small individual contributors and accept matching funds a How do you qualify 400 people in 20 states b Any drawbacks Overall cap Cant spend over a certain amount of money i State by state limits population ii Overall 60 million in 2012 and state by state spending limits iii Can t spend more than 50 000 0f own money George W Bush Path contributors and decline matching funds rely on many small individual a Bush was first candidate effectively to use this path in 2000 b Amount any one individual can contribute to a candidate is 2 500 for 2012 c Advantages no limit apply target certain states with unlimited Really Rich Guy Path matching funds c General Election Campaign Financing spend own cannot receive For 2008 84 million McCain accepted but Obama did not spent 400 million on general