03/29/2012I. President and CongressA. Bond and Fleisher say…1. Two sets of factors explain variation in the presidents success in congressi. Presidency Centered Explanationa. What the president does and how s/he does it - Ex. Skill, professional reputation and public prestige2. Congressional Centered Explanationi. Success determined by results of the last election a. Partisan and ideological makeup of CongressB. Within each party in Congress over the past 45 years, there has been an increasingly small amount of ideological diversity 1. Differences between the parties have growni. Why?a. Disappearance of conservative southern Democrats, moderate Republicans and the “Conservative Coalition”b. Today, relatively conservative and unified Republican party faces a relatively liberal and unified Democratic Party- Base of the president’s support will be from his/her own party 1. Party arithmetic is decisive II. Periods of Congress regarding unification of houses based upon party in powerA. 1832-20001. Only 68/168 years had divided governmentB. 1900-19501. 22/26 national elections lead to a unified governmentC. 1952-19981. 16/24 divided governmentD. Of the 8 presidential elections from 1968-1996 only two elections has produced a unified governmentE. 2000 (briefly), 2002 and 2004  unified governmentF. 2006  divided government againG. 2008 unified H. 2010 dividedIII. Why does the United States have an increasingly divided government?A. Underlying causal factor in each is split ticket voting1. Perhaps weakened party loyalties are a precondition, but why do/did people vote split tickets?B. Three explanations of divided government 1. Power of congressional incumbencyi. Democratic congressional incumbents could withstand national Republican tides in the 1970s-1980sa. “Single minded seekers of reelection – Part of a “Continuous Campaign” of “advertising, “credit claiming and “position taking”2. Jacobson’s explanationi. Voters saw Republicans as party of presidential issues of peace and prosperity a. National issues of defense and the economyii. Democrats as the party of local concerns a. who can do the work of the districtiii. This theory no longer flies because in 94, 96 and 98 there were Democratic presidents and Republican congresses 3. Balancing Explanation (Fiorina) i. Some voters purposefully cast divided/split votes04/03/2012I. Divided governmentA. The same amount of significant legislation comes from divided government as unified governmentB. Cognitive madisonions would be cool with divided government because in theory it forces both parties to work togetherII. Influence of national conditions on congressional electionsA. Two rules of thumb1. Party if presidential winner picks up congressional seats ~8 on average in the house and ~2 in the Senate2. Presidents party loses ~22 in the house and ~3 in the Senate in a midterm election3. Presidential coat tails – have the declinedi. Yes but still existsIII. President and CongressA. Why is the relationship difficult for any president?B. What variables affect the relationship?C. Resources and tools available to the presidentD. Formal powers1. Inform Congress on the State of the Union2. Recommend “necessary and expedient” measures3. Convene both houses on extraordinary occasions4. Adjourn Congress in cases of disagreement5. Veto powerE. Role of chief legislator a 20th century creation1. FDR’s first 100 day sis a turning point2. Truman – practice of legislative programs in the state of the union3. “President proposes, Congress disposesF. Inherent difficulties1. Separation of powers  differing perspectives2. Structure of Congress (2 chambers; 20 standing committees in House, 17 in Senate)3. Different constituencies  “national” v. local (Madison in Federal #46)4. Differing time perspectives – different length terms, also most congresspersons are “Carreerists” (no term limits) (House members are always running for reelection but hopefully want a career)G. Variable factors in the relationship1. Divided or unified government? -- #of fellow partisans2. Nature of the timesi. Crisis?a. Congress will be much more willing the give the president what he wantsii. Point in time in the administrationa. Push your political agenda hard and fast during your first 100 days (Honeymoon, Cycle of Decreasing Influence)iii. Public prestige/Popularitya. Going public option?iv. Professional reputationv. Legislative leaderships skills and stylea. Skills – issue selection, volume, timingH. Presidential resources1. Status conferrals, Personal appeals, etc2. Provision of legislative assistance3. Programs, projects, and patronagei. (Trading on accounts)4. Campaign assistance5. Appeal to the public (going public)6. Sympathetic party and committee chairs7. Office of Legislative affairs (Office of Congressional Relations – Began with Ike8. Vetoi. Only about 1% of bills sent to the President have been vetoed, only about 7% of vetoed bills have been over-ridden (but also threat of veto is looming) 04/05/2012I. Simplified veto game (assuming Congress cannot muster 2/3rd override majoritiesA. Scenario One1. President and Congress have sharply different policy preferences (President prefers status quo to what Congress wants) In this case Congress will not even legislate. PresidentStatus QuoCongressB. Scenario Two1. Congress favors a more drastic change in policy than the presidenti. Congress will pass legislation marginally more attractively to the president than the status quoC. Scenario Three1. President favors a more drastic change in policy than does Congressi. Congress will pass its preferred legislation and President will signII. Myth of Presidential Mandate (Dahl) (Question or two on exam of this)A. Conditions for clear presidential policy mandate1. Candidates advance visible, differing policy/issue positions2. Large majorities of votes cast for winner3. Votes cast on prospective policy issue basis4. Presidents party picks up seats and has large majorities in CongressB. Can retrospective voting confer a mandate?1. Probably notC. Can divided government be associated with a mandate?1. Probably notD. Do mandates have to be active mandates for change?1. Under a classic definition noE. What forms do mandates take?1. “do that mandate”i. Prospective issue voting2. “Do something mandate”i. Electorate is voting for a change3. Status quo mandatei. – re-election or continued previous policiesIII. President of the