POS 4413 The American Presidency August 28 2013 What are the goals of a social science Development and testing of theory Theory building Theory generalized explanation for the behavior or outcome of interest Hypothesis tentative statement or educated guess that follows from the theory If X then Y Falsifiability How would you know if you were wrong Theory Hypothesis Test with Data Can we predict But there are not many well developed theories or analytical frameworks regarding the presidency In large part difficulties in the theory development and testing due to difficulties in data collection Journalistic accounts descriptive Academic case studies each case is unique can we generalize Social Science difficulties Decision making processes are closed Fewer sources and all or at least most share goal of advancing president and his her agenda Quantitative data Small N problem How many modern presidents Only 13 Responses Perhaps focus on presidential relationships with other actors Focus on presidential decisions Consider other executives e g governors or leaders of other nations What data are available presidential election data and approval ratings success rates in congress veto data appointment data Need for parsimonious explanations explain the most with the least that could be wrong i e falsifiable when confronted with data Studying individual presidents or perhaps even using the president as the unit of analysis wont take us far in terms of building theory What does the job of being president entail How powerful can should the president be Article 2 opens The executive power shall be vested in a President of the USA Divergent Constitutional conception of presidential power historically 1 Constitutional or strict constructionist theory inconsistent with modern presidency Taft granted by Congress a President powers limited to those explicitly listed in Constitution or 2 Stewardship Theory T Roosevelt President can do anything not forbidden by Constitution or by congressional laws 3 Prerogative theory Lincoln President can do not only those things that aren t forbidden but also those things that are explicitly forbidden when in the national interest a Constitutional Dictatorship Traditional presidency Modern Presidency Franklin Roosevelt s FDR s presidency 1933 45 was pivotal Clintons Rossiter s presidential roles Constitutional roles o 1 Chief of State ceremonial symbolic o 2 Chief Executive Chief administrator o 3 Chief Legislator state of the union veto power o 4 Chef Diplomat treaties receiving ambassadors o 5 Commander in Chief civilian control of the military Extra Constitution roles o 1 Chief of political party o 2 Manager of the economy o 3 Voice of the people Public Presidency Wilson o 4 Protector of Peace o 5 World Leader 2 Questions regarding the modern presidency Michael Nelson 1 How Strong is the presidency empirical question 2 Is presidential strength good or bad normative question Answer to these two questions 3 major models of modern presidency note model here refers to a normative view not a social science explanatory mode FDR 1 Savior Model Heroic Superman or Textbook model 1940 s 1960 s a Strong presidency is good b Preference for activist liberal president c Motivated Nuestadt s Presidential Power 1960 Nuestadt s Presidential Power 1960 how to manual for modern presidents Emphasizes personal basis of presidential power Ability to command is limited president must be good at persuasion and bargaining effectively How to maintain base of persuasive power President s power to persuade rests on a Professional reputation among other political actors in DC i Is presidential skillful tenacious Trustworthy good at bargaining Jimmy Carter was horrible Reagan was good b Public Prestige public approval i Standing outside DC among the public Assumptions Dangers Of Savior model 2 Satan Model Imperial presidency late 1960 s early 1970 s a Presidency is strong which is dangerous b Product of Vietnam war and Watergate LBJ and Nixon c Danger of Pathological personality types in the White House Barber s Presidential Character 1972 3 Samson Model Imperiled or tethered presidency late 1970 s a President is weakened which is bad b Product of Ford and Charter admin c A growing gap between expectations and capacity d But along comes Reagan Presidency and what it is is variable 1 Person of president matters personality character style but how much 2 Powers and responsibilities vast and vague lee way 3 Impacted by change outside the office in other institutions Congress parties media etc and in the economy and international events wars and crises Is President a director of change or more of a facilitator September 9 2013 George W Bush s and VP Cheney s view model of presidential power Doctrine of the unitary executive expansive view of executive powers vested in President by Article II Article II opens The executive power should Signing Statements do Presidents have the power to set aside parts of congressional law when it conflicts with their interpretation of the Constitution and especially its implications for the executive Legality of military tribunals commissions Enhanced Interrogations Suspension of writ of habeas corpus Electronic surveillance of US citizens w o court approval September 11 2013 Presidential Cycles No single model or theory of the presidency suffices because political times and climate of expectations vary Political times and presidents vary Presidential Leadership in political time Skowronek What is the president s posture position relative to the Dominate political party regime coalition Insider or outside Political time when in regime sequence does the president engage the political and institutional order Generation maintenance decay degeneration starts over He breaks American History into 5 political regime eras Jeffersonian 1800 28 Jacksonian 1828 60 1 2 3 Republican 1860 1932 Woodrow Wilson was an outlier 4 New Deal 1932 80 5 Reagan 1980 Political time Sequence Reconstruction new regime put in place Articulation with occasional Preemption Disjunction Politics of Reconstruction Outside opponent and pre existing regime vulnerable Jefferson Jackson Lincoln FDR Reagan o Discontent with est order and through realigning election s displace long est majority party from dominant position in both Congress and Presidency New ruling party and political agenda Politics of articulation Insider affiliate and regime resilient e g LBJ H W Bush o Most frequency occurring