to vote in any primary or other election for President Systems of Voting Presidential Primaries Lecture notes 9 24 13 and 9 26 13 Presidential campaigns voting public opinion critical for candidates and media is very important strategy Presidential selection process primaries nominations and general election Invisible Primary starts right after the president wins 4years mostly governors and senators Future candidates Looking at public opinion polls important issues looking at past candidates best strategies Runs for 3 years there are no official events Mid term elections states occur if defeated running is over pre primary Primary Phase Sates have caucus or primary s Jan or feb to early June Party members vote for their candidate then delegates are chosen for national convention Primary voting booth choose on the candidates of parties Caucus party gets together openly declare votes for delegates Iowa is the 1st caucus while New Hampshire is the primary The beginning influences who is going to win In the invisible primary the media can t do anything so it s a big deal 5 10 candidates who have some chance of winning Iowa tells who can win one state Usually drop out after Iowa Next states pick the winner for their party nominate a strong candidate After New Hampshire there is 2 or 3 candidates Super Tuesday hard to win We know who the nominee is General Election hard to pick the winner National Convention 4 day commercial for the party carious campaign ads speeches and events battleground states could go either party October 3 presidential debates and one vice presidential Official Election election GOTV THE 1ST TUESDAY AFTER THE 1ST Monday Electoral College house of representatives inauguration New theory Friends and Neighbors people vote like the people they know Tend to vote in social group Right most of the time good theory predicts well However this doesn t explain anything 1936 the literary digest magazine report results of votes sent out 5 million questionnaires 2 million answered people preferred the republicans The real results DEMOCRATS WON Who did they ask The have and the have nots magazine is luxury if u have money u got the questionnaires republicans Scientific polling random sample critical element The party s issues candidate s theory people have positive and negative thoughts and feeling about parties issues and candidates and they vote accordingly Party was the biggest factor Partisanship has become less important but it s the most important factor Most people vote on the basis of party 7 categories strong democrats weak lean democrats pure independents strong republicans weak lean republicans Some elections has a dominant factor 1940s parties 1950s ike democrats voted for him 1964 68 civil rights issue 1972 Vietnam 73 74 Watergate scandal republicans were blamed 1976 carter not capable of president things were bad Republicans nominate Reagan very conservative 1 presidential debate tied in polls Debate had effect Are you better of than u were 4 years ago nature of the times vote for change There u go again relaxed and sense of humor same level as the president makes a connection to the audience Rational acter voting if things are good reelect the incumbent Walter mandel carter vice president sets a trap on Reagan started talking directly to the president show he was more alert than him Carter cut Medicaid There u again maybe he is too old The next debate carter did good youth and inexperience
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