“...to vote in any primary or other election for President” Systems of Voting; Presidential Primaries Lecture notes 9/24/13 and 9/26/13Presidential campaigns: voting, public opinion (critical for candidates), and media is very important…strategy Presidential selection process- primaries, nominations, and general electionInvisible Primary- starts right after the president wins (4years), mostly governors and senators. Future candidates- Looking at public opinion polls, important issues, looking at past candidates, best strategies. Runs for 3 years; there are no official events. Mid-term elections (states) occur…if defeated running is over, pre-primaryPrimary Phase- Sates have caucus or primary’s (Jan or feb, to early June). Party members vote for their candidate then delegates are chosen for national convention. Primary (voting booth choose on the candidates of parties) Caucus (party gets together, openly declare votes for delegates) Iowa is the 1st caucus while New Hampshire is the primary. The beginning influences who is going to win. In the invisible primary the media can’t do anything so it’s a big deal. 5-10 candidates who have some chance of winning. Iowa tells who can win one state. Usually drop out after Iowa. Next states pick the winner for their party- nominate a strong candidate. After New Hampshire, there is 2 or 3 candidates, Super Tuesday- hard to win. We know who the nominee is.General Election- hard to pick the winner, National Convention-4 day commercial for the party, carious campaign ads speeches and events, battleground states- could go either party, October- 3 presidential debates and one vice-presidentialOfficial Election – election( GOTV), THE 1ST TUESDAY AFTER THE 1ST Monday, Electoral College , house of representatives, inauguration New theory: Friends and Neighbors- people vote like the people they know. Tend to vote in social group. Right most of the time, good theory- predicts well. However this doesn’t explain anything 1936 – the literary digest(magazine) – report results of votes, sent out 5 million questionnaires, 2 million answered, people preferred the republicans. The real results: DEMOCRATS WON. Who did they ask?? The have and the have nots…magazine is luxury…if u have money u got the questionnaires (republicans) Scientific polling- random sample (critical element)The party’s issues candidate’s theory – people have positive and negative thoughts and feeling about parties, issues, and candidates and they vote accordingly. Party was the biggest factor. Partisanship has become less important but it’s the most important factor. Most people vote on the basis of party.7 categories- strong democrats, weak/lean democrats, pure independents, strong republicans, weak/lean republicansSome elections has a dominant factor- 1940s( parties) 1950s ( ike- democrats voted for him) , 1964,68 ( civil rights issue) 1972 ( Vietnam ), 73- 74 (Watergate scandal, republicans were blamed) 1976 ( carter- not capable of president, things were bad), Republicans nominate Reagan ( very conservative),,1 presidential debate…tied in polls. Debate had effect. “Are you better of than u were 4 years ago?” (nature of the times-vote for change) “There u go again” relaxed and sense of humor…same level as the president…makes a connection to the audience Rational acter voting- if things are good, reelect the incumbent Walter mandel – carter vice-president- ( sets a trap on Reagan) started talking directly to the president, show he was more alert than him. Carter cut Medicaid(“There u again”)…maybe he is too old. The next debate, carter did good(youth and
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