UPP 594 Helping Stakeholders See the FutureUPP 594 Helping Stakeholders See the Future (58341) Spring 2004 Max Dieber T/TH 10-11:30 Rm 262 ...a collaborative exploration of long range populationforecasting including examination of forecast users, alternative approaches, general methodologies, methods for stakeholder involvement, and evaluation of results.Introduction“Planning involves visualizing a better future and going after it.” (So, p.3)“...urban and regional planning has been largely justified as an institutional mechanism for providing information about the future to guide current decision making.” (Klosterman, p.3)This course will explore the problem of visualizing a better future. A major portionof the focus will be on technical methods for data collection, policy consideration, analysis and preparation of long range forecasts. Instructor Expectations and GradingIt is assumed that students are computer literate, i.e., students have access to computer resources, understand the use of the internet, and are capable in usingword processing and spreadsheet software. Many of the course readings and supporting material will be available to students on Blackboard.Course grades will be based on three elements:1. Group projects (40%): compile data, develop regionwide and county demographic assumptions, prepare a forecast for a county in northeastern Illinois, and present findings to the class.2. Individual project (20%): compile data, develop appropriate assumptions, and either (a) prepare a forecast for a suburban municipality in northeastern Illinois, and present findings to the class, or (b) explore a policy implication of official regional forecasts, and present findings to the class.3. Course engagement (40%): class attendance and participation.The instructor’s intention is to guide this course as a collaborative workshop with a minimal number of traditional classroom lectures. Much of the effort involved inthe group projects will take place during scheduled class time. The groups will also have to meet outside of scheduled class time - in many instances with the involvement of the instructor.Course TextsSmith, Tayman and Swanson. (2001). State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: New YorkOther readings will made available in pdf format Contact with InstructorMax [email protected] or [email protected] (anytime)708-567-0400 (before 9pm) or 312-996-5240Office Hours - Room 227Tuesday and Thursday, 11:30 - 1:00 and by appointmentGeneral Course Schedule (subject to change – remember, this is a collaborative effort and, collectively, we may decide to take things in alternative directions based on student interests)1. Overview of Course - what is this about and why do we care about stakeholder involvement2. The Place for Policy - this is about a better future, after all3. Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission 2030 forecast process - how was it accomplished; what was wrong; what can we learn4. Economic Base - a quick review of employment forecasting5. Cohort-Component Process - exploration and development of assumptions for job growth, fertility, mortality, migration, labor force participation, household size6. Alternative Methods for Different Geographies - from simple to complex7. Land Use Models - from statistical to explanatory8. Approaches to Stakeholder Involvement - Paint-the-Town, Common Ground, Chicago Metropolis 2020Likely Project Due DatesWeek of February 16 - Group presentations on components of change (25-30 minutes each)Week of March 15 - Group presentations on county forecast results (25-30 minutes each)Weeks of April 12 and April 19 - Individual presentations on suburban forecasts or policy implicationsReference DocumentsPDF indicates a pdf file has been created and is availableRR indicates required reading, book available from bookstoreDC desk copy, available from instructorCD on CD-ROM, available from instructorNET on internet at URL indicatedAllen, Eliot, and Dieber, William “Max”, 2002. “Paint the Town: A Tool for Sketching Community Growth.” First Annual Conference on Public Participation and GIS, Urban and Regional Information Systems Association, New Brunswick,New Jersey. PDFBendavid-Val, Avrom, 1991. Regional and Local Economic Analysis for Practitioners, Fourth Edition. DCBogue, Donald, and Rehling, Louise, 1974. Techniques for Making Population Projections: How to Make Age_Sex Projections by Electronic Computer. Chicago: University of Chicago. PDFBureau of the Census, National Projections, 1999-2100. Washington DC.www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natproj.html NETChicago Metropolis 2020, 2003. The Metropolis Plan: Choices for the Chicago Region. Chicago: Chicago Metropolis 2020. CDDieber, William “Max,” 1991. “NIPC Approach to Forecasts and the Incorporation of Regional Growth Policy,” Forecast Staff Paper No. 2, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission: Chicago. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1991. “Key Assumptions in the Preparation of NIPC Socio_Economic Forecasts,” Forecast Staff Paper No. 4, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission: Chicago.PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1991. “The Role of Participation of State, County and Local Governments, and the General Public in the Forecast Process,” Forecast Staff Paper No. 5, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission: Chicago. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1992. “Relationships Between Policy and Forecast,” Staff paper, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission, Chicago. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1992. “Misallocations in Past Population and Household Forecasts in Northeastern Illinois.” Annual Conference of the Urban and RegionalInformation System Association, Washington, D.C. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1993. “Ad Hoc Committee Progress on Development of Policy Assumptions for the Forecast Process.” Staff paper, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission, Chicago. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1999. “Using Dram/Empal in Northeastern Illinois.” Annual Conference of the Urban and Regional Information System Association, Chicago IL. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 2002. Proposed New Population, Household and Employment Forecasts for the Six County Northeastern Illinois Region, 2000 to 2030. Chicago IL: Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 2003. “Paint the Town: Lessons Learned.” Second Annual Conference on Public