UPP 594 (23157) Helping Stakeholders See the Future Spring 2005 Max Dieber T/TH 4-5:30 BSB 185 ...a collaborative exploration of long range populationforecasting including examination of forecast users, alternative approaches, general methodologies, methods for stakeholder involvement, and evaluation of results.Introduction“Planning involves visualizing a better future and going after it.” (So, p.3)“...urban and regional planning has been largely justified as an institutional mechanism for providing information about the future to guide current decision making.” (Klosterman, p.3)This course will explore the problem of visualizing a better future. A major portion of the focus will be on technical methods for data collection, policy consideration, analysis and preparation of long range forecasts. Instructor Expectations and GradingIt is assumed that students are computer literate, i.e., students have access to computer resources, understand the use of the internet, and are capable in using word processing and spreadsheet software. Many of the course readings and supporting material will be available to students on Blackboard.Course grades will be based on three elements:1. Group projects (40%): explore one of the demographic components of population change, identifying trends nationwide and in northeastern Illinois; present results to class and lead discussion2. Individual project (20%): compile data, develop regionwide and county demographic assumptions, prepare a forecast for a county in northeastern Illinois, and present findingsto the class.3. Course engagement (40%): class attendance and participation.The instructor’s intention is to guide this course as a collaborative workshop with a minimal number of traditional classroom lectures. Much of the effort involved in the group projects will take place during scheduled class time. The groups will also have to meet outside of scheduled class time - in many instances with the involvement of the instructor.Course TextsSmith, Tayman and Swanson. (2001). State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis.Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: New YorkKlosterman, Richard E., 1990. Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Rowman and Littlefield: New York. Contact with InstructorMax Dieber [email protected] (anytime)708-567-0400 (before 9pm) Office Hours - Room 227, CUPPAHTuesday and Thursday, 2:00-3:30 and by appointmentGeneral Course Content (subject to change – remember, this is a collaborative effort and, collectively, we may decide to take things in alternative directions based on student interests)1. Overview of Course - what is this about and why do we care about stakeholder involvement2. The Place for Policy - this is about a better future, after all3. Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission 2030 forecast process - how was it accomplished; what was wrong; what can we learn4. Economic Base - a quick review of employment forecasting5. Cohort-Component Process - exploration and development of assumptions for job growth, fertility,mortality, migration, labor force participation, household size6. Alternative Methods for Different Geographies - from simple to complex7. Land Use Models - from statistical to explanatory8. Approaches to Stakeholder Involvement - Paint-the-Town, Common Ground, Chicago Metropolis 2020Class ScheduleJan 11 Introduction to CourseJan 13 Why Forecasts?Jan 25 Review of NIPC Forecast ProcessJan 27 Introduction to Public Involvement StrategiesNIPC’s Common Ground ProgramFeb 1 Center for Neighborhood Technology Efforts to Influence Transportation PlanningFeb 3 Chicago Metropolis 2020’s Vision for the FutureFeb 8 Cohort-Component ProcessFeb 15 Student Group Presentation of Fertility ComponentFeb 22 Student Group Presentation of Migration ComponentMar 1 Student Group Presentation of Mortality ComponentMar 3 Continuing Discussion of Components of Population ChangeUsing a Cohort-Component Model: MAXPOPMar 8 Economic BaseMar 10 Continuing Discussion of Economic BaseMar 15 Paint the Town/ForecasterMar 17 Paint the Town/Plan BuilderMar 29 Local ApproachesMar 31 Continuing Discussion of Local ApproachesApr 5 Student Presentations of County ProjectionsApr 7 Student Presentations of County ProjectionsApr 12 Maps with Teeth, Oak Park, Campus PlanningApr 14 Integrated Land Use ModelsApr 19 Integrated Land Use Models, continuedApr 21 Discussion of Participation ProcessesApr 26 Continuing Discussion of Participation ProcessesApr 28 Next Steps in Population ProjectionsReference DocumentsPDF indicates a pdf file has been created and is availableDC desk copy, available from instructor (probably also in Library)CD on CD-ROM, available from instructorNET on internet at URL indicatedLIB available from LibraryAllen, Eliot, and Dieber, William “Max”, 2002. “Paint the Town: A Tool for Sketching Community Growth.” First Annual Conference on Public Participation and GIS, Urban and Regional Information Systems Association, New Brunswick, New Jersey. PDFBendavid-Val, Avrom, 1991. Regional and Local Economic Analysis for Practitioners, Fourth Edition. DCBogue, Donald, and Rehling, Louise, 1974. Techniques for Making Population Projections: How to Make Age_Sex Projections by Electronic Computer. Chicago: University of Chicago. PDFBogue, Donald, Hinze, Kenneth, and White, Michael, 1982. Techniques of Estimating Net Migration. Chicago: University of Chicago. DCBureau of the Census, National Projections, 1999-2100. Washington DC.www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natproj.html NETChicago Metropolis 2020, 2003. The Metropolis Plan: Choices for the Chicago Region. Chicago: ChicagoMetropolis 2020. CDDieber, William “Max,” 1991. “NIPC Approach to Forecasts and the Incorporation of Regional Growth Policy,” Forecast Staff Paper No. 2, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission: Chicago. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1991. “Key Assumptions in the Preparation of NIPC Socio_Economic Forecasts,” Forecast Staff Paper No. 4, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission: Chicago.PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1991. “The Role of Participation of State, County and Local Governments, and the General Public in the Forecast Process,” Forecast Staff Paper No. 5, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission: Chicago. PDFDieber, William “Max,” 1992. “Relationships Between Policy and Forecast,” Staff paper, Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission, Chicago. PDFDieber, William