Vulnerability and Urbanisation Mark A. Pelling Senior Lecturer Department of Geography King’s College LondonVulnerability and Urbanisation • Global Science and Policy Context – Language – Challenges to mainstreaming – UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction • Urban Vulnerability – What is different about cities? Manizales – Adaptive potential and social capital, Los Manguitos • Measuring Vulnerability – Group work – Challenges to measuring vulnerabilityGlobal Science and Policy Context • Language is an unresolved barrier –risk – hazard – vulnerability – mitigating hazard – coping or adapting? – root causes, dynamic pressures and local endangerment – Disaster Risk ManagementNegative linkages between failed risk reduction, disaster response and development •Di i ildings, i•l•Indi•Hi l li• i i ity, i li l• li l •Politi l isi l• l•Inappropri l l• il lude risk lj l• il ity in ri• i ial and social)i iiile l lhigh Stall iii l li liBy constraini ildisocial l and faili ing politi l iliiDisaster Losses rect mpacts on bunfrastructure and stocks. Human deaths and injury. Damage to the natura environment. rect and systemic economic losses. Failed Development gh leve s of poverty and inequa ty. Food and l vel hoods insecurnadequate hea th care, education and phys ca infrastructure. Macro-economic dec ne and financiainstability tied to uneven global trade and debt agreements. ca cr s and vio ence. Risk Accumulation Inadequate ear y warning ate and-use p anning and construction standards. Fa ure to incassessment in deve opment pro ects and p anning Fa ure to engage communsk management Inadequate insurance (f nanc, productive assets exposed. Reduces capac ty to cope w th or adapt to r sk. Increases human exposure to hazard and suscept bility to harm. Increased numbers of exposed peopand assets. Low eve hazards magnified by vulnerability. s soc o-economic development. Underm nes or destroys ind vidua ve hoods. ng the bu ng of or human capitang to encourag caparticipation within prevention work opportun ties for human development are missed. Household and government resources directed towards emergency re ef and away from preparedness, prevent on and development. Limits resilience producing a weak base for emergency response.Virtuous linkages between risk reduction, disaster response and development i lilding social capital ii l l lll li lihoods i lical iillpl iijpl i ii l and social)ilildisocial l and liti l projects. Emergency response and reconstruction Humanitarian life saving, restoring productive systems and l ve ihoods, regaining market access, rebu human cap tal and phys ca /psycho ogica health. Development Poverty a eviation, food and vesecur ty, extending access to hea th and education, phys nfrastructure, macro-economic growth and financ al stability tied to g obal trade and debt agreements, political participation Risk reduction E.g ear y warning, land-use anning and appropr ate construction, r sk assessment in development pro ects and anning, commun ty based r sk management, insurance (f nancia, asset protection through soc al safety nets. Reduces human exposure to hazard and susceptibility to harm. Lowers the exposure of people and assets. Reduces oss and the costs of emergency response. Constrains secondary (e.g. health) and systemic impacts of disaster on livelihoods and the macroeconomy. By integrating the bu ng of or human capitaencouraging po caparticipation within prevention work development is enhanced. An opportunity for building risk reduction into reconstruction Enhances resilience building a strong base for emergency response.Challenges to mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into development • Incentive, institutional and funding structures – Low visibility and lack of national political commitment – Government-donor relations and moral hazard – Donors and the media – Institutional separation of humanitarian and development wings – Funding support for disaster risk reduction – Pressures of work – The primacy of the MDGs –NGOs• Assumptions about the risk-reducing capacity of development • Lack of exposure to disaster issues – Communication failures, weak evidence – Disaster rarity and fatalismUN World Conference on Disaster Reduction • UN IDNDR 1990-1999 • Yokohama Declaration 1994 • Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 – UN negotiating rules – The tsunami and lobbying – Civil society presence – Outcomes: • Climate change and urbanisation • Targets and time-frames for actionUrban Vulnerability • Why are urban risks underestimated? – Professional and academic bias – Population and poverty data – A problem of demography or governance? • Munich Re Vulnerability of Megacities – New York, Seoul and Mexico CityUrban Functions, Metaphors and Vulnerable Components J.K.Mitchell (2004) Function Metaphors Vulnerability Material support Machine Performance failure Metabolism Organism Life-support systems Site of Creativity Muse, Carnival Repressive conformance, sanctions against experimentation Learning Information network Barriers to information exchange Regulation Command and control Failures of trust and authorityAdaptive Potential and Social Capital • Vulnerability: – Hazard specific (known threat): social organisation – Intrinsic (future, unknown threat) social capital • Social Capital: asymmetric and latent properties • Burden shifting • Individuals, networks or regimes (communities of place or practice)?Adaptive Potential Mobilise social capital Manipulate social capital for private or public for private or public benefit benefit Purposeful adaptation Raising a house or public building Coping mechanism Community policing Join a CBO focussed on risk reduction Institutional modification Carnival, elections Incidental adaptationSocial Capital and Social Organisation, Los Manguitos iCl i il ii l il ij l91% 44% 66% 60% 44% 39% 10 % l linos san iliti l77% 46% 19% 15% 2% 28% 39% l elicipal ell el70% 63% 75% ii iFamily Shop ilding 64% 50% 30% 11% 7% 2% 1% Indicator Response Informal Social Support Spoke w th a neighbour today? osest friend l ves in Los Mangu tos Have you ever c eaned the street w th neighbours? Have you ever celebrated carn va or Christmas w th neighbours? Have you ever shopped for a neighbour? Have you ever p ayed sport w th a neighbour? Have you ever oined in a neighbourhood