Lecture Notes: Disaster Vulnerability and Resilience Session 10 Lecturer: Toddie A. Steelman, Dept. of Forest and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University Community Response to Wildfire Risk in AZ, CO, and NM Policy Sciences: I. Professionalism a. Policy Sciences Definition: i. The work of professionals is to apply special knowledge and skills RESPONSIBLY in resolving societal problems in the common interest. b. Challenges as Opportunities: i. Tough policy problems present an opportunity to change how problems are perceived. ii. One way to solve problems more effectively is to look at them in a more detailed way than most people are used to. c. Theories of Policy for Professionals: i. Institutional Rational Choice: 1. (Eleanor Ostrum) Deals with institutional rules/norms/laws that alter rational individual choices ii. Multiple Streams 1. (Kingdon) Three streams come together: politics stream, policy stream, problem stream. iii. Punctuated Equilibrium 1. Incremental change and punctuation iv. Advocacy Coalition Framework 1. How do you bring coalitions of single interests together in specific policy sub-systems to figure out what might work in that context. v. Policy Sciences: 1. Harold Lasswell (1950s) one of the oldest traditions in the policy movement. II. Policy Sciences a. Four over-aching umbrellas: i. Problem-oriented ii. Contextual: iii. Embrace multiple methods: i.e. anthropology, hydrology, iv. Emphasis on solving problems for the human dignity for all. b. Three frameworks: i. Problem orientation ii. Decision Process 1. CAVEAT: The focus of this presentation is on the decision process due to time constraints; however all of theseframeworks are highly embedded and the presentation is thus incomplete. iii. Social Process The Decision Process III. Definition a. A heuristic process, non-linear, with the following seven functions ongoing concurrently: i. Intelligence – obtaining and processing information ii. Promotion – recommending/mobilizing support for action iii. Prescription – an activity that establishes rules for action iv. Invocation – the first action to invoke, or appeal to a prescription v. Application – the final expression of the prescription vi. Appraisal – Evaluation of the prescription vii. Termination – The point at which the prescription is no longer in effect. b. Implementation: i. In other policy frameworks, Invocation and Application are combined under the heading “Implementation.” ii. In Policy Sciences, Invocation and Application are separated out because changes can take place between these points of the decision process. Concept of the Common Interest IV. Common Interest a. Interests widely shared by members of a community b. A special interest in incompatible with the common interest c. A tentative commitment to the common interest (or some alternative goal) is necessary to provide direction for policies and governance. V. Problems with Governance (from Robert Brunner reading): a. What is the problem with governance according to Brunner? i. Failure to clarify and secure the common interest ii. Why do we have failure to clarify and secure the common interest today? 1. Multiple competing interest groups 2. Separation of powers does not allow opportunity for common interest to be resolved a. Entrenched model of conflict embedded in the Constitution 3. Different bureaucracies create competing policies. 4. Move to ideologies: creating an adversarial approach 5. Dialogue about the common interest has atrophied iii. What is the goal with respect to governance? 1. Develop a formal system for conflict resolution. a. It should start with collaborative problem-solving in community initiatives2. Principles of Affected Interest: a. Example: The mythology of democracy (in the U.S.A.) that everyone can participate at every moment. b. Criteria of economy and competence i. People self-select into participating in governance. 1. Time 2. Competence 3. How can we find a place to reinvent ourselves? a. One way: community-based initiatives. i. They have the ability to serve a common interest ii. It is not something that is meant to work in all situations 1. Requires some balance of power and a reasonable pre-disposition of all the important people to come to the table. iii. It is particularly useful in the context of natural resources. iv. Local Control vs. Local Involvement 1. Local stakeholder groups do not necessarily mean that there is local control. Wildfire Problem VI. 2000 and 2002 Wildfire Seasons a. Most costly in the last 50 years (in terms of acres destroyed) b. 2000 Suppression costs: $1.3 Billion c. 2002 Suppression costs: $1.6 Billion d. 2003 Suppression costs: $1.3 Billion (CA Fires) VII. Fire Regimes a. Fire plays a natural role in ecosystems, especially out west b. Ponderosa Pine Forests: i. Adapted to low-intensity frequent fires 1. burns small trees and shrubs, 2. prevents spread of invasive species, 3. maintains low fuel-load. ii. 80 year change in Bitteroot National Forest: 1. 1909: grassy with tall trees 2. 1948: More small trees 3. 1958: More shrubs, more small trees, 4. 1968: Increase in brush and shrubs 5. 1979: Dense trees, brush and shrubs 6. 1989: Very dense fuel-load of trees and shrubsiii. Weather Conditions; 1. 2002: Wide-spread extreme drought category in the west and south-west 2. 2004: Small extreme drought area 3. 2005: Concentrated in Montana and Wisconsin VIII. Major Problems: a. Wildfire suppression b. Increased population c. Preference for living in wildland-urban interface d. 60-100 Million acres and hundreds of communities are at risk IX. Debates: a. Fuel Reduction Practices i. Mechanical thinning ii. Prescribed fire: 1. Most cost-effective method 2. Subject to weather-events (can become catastrophic) a. Carry high liability iii. Thinning and fire: 1. Many areas have such heavy fuel-loads that prescribed fires would become catastrophic b. Insect Mortality: i. Stressed forests are more vulnerable to disease and insects ii. No agreement on whether to destroy diseased areas or leave them alone c. Project Selection i. Forest Service selection process vs. state Foresters selection process d. Project Delays: i. NEPA Process: 1. Appeals cause delays X. Alternatives to Address Problems: a. 2000-2001 National Fire Plan report to governor. i. 2000 report to President ii.