The Politics of Natural and Unnatural HazardsSome basic conceptsElements of the Policy ProcessThe Problems with the Stages ModelAgenda Setting in the Policy ProcessWhat are actors’ goals in agenda setting?Why is the agenda so important?How do issues reach the agenda?Improved Models of the Policy Process Help Us Understand Focusing EventsKingdon’s Streams MetaphorBaumgartner and Jones Punctuated EquilibriumSabatier’s Advocacy Coalition FrameworkEnough background! What does this mean for disasters1925 Santa Barbara Earthquake1933 Long Beach Earthquake1964 Alaska Earthquake1971 Sylmar Earthquake1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake1994 Northridge EarthquakeWhat do all these have in common?Hurricane AndrewAfter Disaster“The Political Model”What the model meansMore Evidence: What Do Congressional Witnesses Talk About?What does this all mean?The Big Difference: The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction ActA brief history of Earthquake PolicyA brief history of Earthquake PolicyA brief history of Earthquake PolicyA brief history of Earthquake PolicyA brief history of Earthquake PolicyA brief history of Earthquake PolicyPolicy Changes Relating to EarthquakesPolicy Changes Relating to EarthquakesPolicy Changes Relating to EarthquakesThe big learning opportunity in Hurricanes: Andrew 1992Problems revealed by AndrewWhat policy changes resulted from Hurricane AndrewChanges to Florida Law After Hurricane AndrewIs Florida now a leader in hurricanes the way California is in earthquakes?Reasons for Policy Change After Earthquakes, and for stasis after hurricanesA Few Words on the Politics of Crisis Management (Birkland and Nath)Key features of crisis management (and of disaster policy)The manageability of eventsFuture researchThe Politics of Natural and Unnatural HazardsTom BirklandUniversity at Albany, SUNYApril 2005Some basic concepts|Politics|Public Policy|The Policy ProcessElements of the Policy Process|Problem definition|Agenda setting|Policy development|Alternative selection|Implementation|Evaluation|FeedbackThe Problems with the Stages Model|Not every step always happens|Not every step always happens in order|The model doesn’t always run to “completion”|There is very little theory here|Recent better theories have enhanced our knowledge of agenda settingAgenda Setting in the Policy Process|What is an agenda?|What are the levels of the agendaz The agenda universez Systemic agendaz Institutional Agendaz Decision AgendaWhat are actors’ goals in agenda setting?|To put things on the agenda|To take things off the agenda|This is an important element of powerWhy is the agenda so important?|Because there is limited agenda space for getting attention|Because more attention usually yields more negative attention|Because the act of getting an issue on the agenda can influence the choice of policies that are ultimately adopted.How do issues reach the agenda?|Changes in indicators of a problem|Focusing eventsz An event that is or is potentially harmful, affects a particular community of interest, and that is known by mass and elite actors almost simultaneously.Improved Models of the Policy Process Help Us Understand Focusing Events| Kingdon’s “streams” metaphor| Baumgartner and Jones’s “punctuated equilibrium” in the policy process| Sabatier’s “Advocacy Coalition Framework”Kingdon’s Streams MetaphorScreen clipping taken: 4/2/2005, 1:26 PMFocusing events reveal problemsBaumgartner and Jones Punctuated Equilibrium|Why is there long periods of stasis in policy followed by sudden periods of change?|Greater attention to an issueÆgreater negative attention Æ changes in the “policy image”|What triggers attention? Sometimes, a focusing eventSabatier’s Advocacy Coalition Framework|There are often many groups in a policy domain….|…but they coalesce into two to four advocacy coalitions|Policy disputes are mediated by “policy brokers” |The policy domain is the site for learning among participants in the advocacy coalitionsEnough background! What does this mean for disasters1925 Santa Barbara Earthquake The First Methodist Episcopal Church, picture from http://americahurrah.com/SantaBarbara/Cover.htm1933 Long Beach Earthquake Collapse of John Muir School on Pacific Avenue from the 1933 Long Beach earthquake. Photo Credit: W.L. Huber from http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/slideset/5/5_slides.shtml1964 Alaska EarthquakeFrom: http://science.howstuffworks.com/earthquake7.htm1971 Sylmar EarthquakeOlive View Community Hospital, Sylmar, CaliforniaImage from http://www.data.scec.org/chrono_index/sanfer.html1989 Loma Prieta Earthquakehttp://science.howstuffworks.com/earthquake7.htm1994 Northridge Earthquake Aerial view of the collapsed freeway interchange between I-5 and the Antelope Valley Freeway (State 14). photo: Kerry Sieh Source: www.data.scec.orgWhat do all these have in common?|Policy change was triggered by each of these events|Why didn’t I show hurricanes?|Because as far as I can tell, there is only one hurricane that had as much influence on state-level policy changeHurricane AndrewNear Homestead, Florida, 1992. Source: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea00550.htmAfter Disaster|The Goal: What makes some disasters more focal than others?|The “political model”: greater attention to disasters (agenda change) is a function of zMedia coveragezImpact (damage and deaths)zThe scope of the disasterzThe mobilization of voices to discuss the issuezAttitudes toward policy (tone)“The Political Model”What the model means|Ideas matter more in the earthquake domain than in the hurricane domain (the tone variable)|The model is a better fit for earthquakes than hurricanes. Why? Because there’s more “politics” in earthquakes than hurricanes.More Evidence: What Do Congressional Witnesses Talk About?Specific EventsNo Specific EventAll TestimonyEQ Disaster ReliefNEHRP Disaster ReliefHURR Disaster ReliefDisaster ReliefDisaster ReliefWhat does this all mean?|All natural disaster policy is a “policy without publics”|Policies without publics rely on technical expertise to advance beneficial policy|This expertise has long existed in California for the earthquake hazard, and has been influential in policy making|Such expertise may exist in hurricanes, but it really doesn’t, and it hasn’t had much influence on policy.The Big Difference: The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Act| Why has there been an NEHRA since 1977, but a wind hazard program only since