Environment and WarEnvironment and WarJennifer Leaning, M.D., S.M.H.Jennifer Leaning, M.D., S.M.H.Harvard School of Public HealthHarvard School of Public HealthHarvard Medical SchoolHarvard Medical School 1Environment and WarEnvironment and WarRelationship between the environment andRelationship between the environment and warwar––CauseCause––Direct impactDirect impact––LongerLonger--term impactterm impactPolicy implicationsPolicy implicationsResearch questionsResearch questionsClassic nation-state wars and Current conflicts 2Environment and WarEnvironment and WarComplex Humanitarian EmergenciesComplex Humanitarian Emergencies––Majority of current conflictsMajority of current conflicts40/52 intra or interstate conflicts in 200040/52 intra or interstate conflicts in 2000 are communally basedare communally based––Key featuresKey featuresFailed states, nonFailed states, non--state actorsstate actorsMass migration and regional destabilizationMass migration and regional destabilization––34.5 million refugees and34.5 million refugees and IDPsIDPsby end of 2000by end of 2000Direct targeting of civilians, human rightsDirect targeting of civilians, human rights abusesabusesIncreasingly criminalizedIncreasingly criminalizedNot including war in Iraq, which began as nation-state war and quickly collapsed into an occupation battling an insurgency These conflicts are called complex because they usually have a mixture of conflict and disaster, often chronic disaster, and often these chronic disasters are based in environmental issues—drought, famine—and a very ugly political animus against stigmatized ethnicities within the society These are wars against people—but they are often about other things as well—and here the issue of environmental resource constraints and fights over access to the few goods that the society can lay claim to become very relevant These are wars among and within poor countries, primarily 3Environment and WarEnvironment and WarUnderlying conditionsUnderlying conditions––PovertyPoverty––Arms availabilityArms availability––Communal tensionsCommunal tensions––Chronic state failureChronic state failurePrevailing views on underlying conditions that lead to these current wars Underlying conditions for classic nation-state wars very complex topic, not addressed here—and generally speaking environmental issues are recognized as factors—in sweeping great power assessments such as Russia’s need for warm water ports, Japan’s need for sources of oil and other raw materials, the quest of imperial states for colonies, power, markets, economic gain from extraction of minerals and agricultural production—so it is not as if the environment, broadly speaking, is not relevant to discussions of nation-state wars—it’s just that the topic is vast and laced with many other, mainly political, considerations Poverty here means development failure and environmental degradation—not simply talking about per capita income or GDP 4Environment and WarEnvironment and WarPrecipitating factorsPrecipitating factors ––Shifts in dynamics of group relationsShifts in dynamics of group relations––Rise of malignant leadershipRise of malignant leadership––Acute state failureAcute state failure––Possibly severe disasterPossibly severe disasterPrevailing views on what causes these CHEs to break out at any given time 5Environment and WarEnvironment and WarUnderlying conditionsUnderlying conditions ––Focus here on those that relate toFocus here on those that relate to environmentenvironmentPovertyPoverty Arms availabilityArms availabilityAgain—poverty seen as failures in economic development and/or degradation of the environment And arms availability arising from development failures, criminalization of the economy, influence of international trade in small arms 6Environment and WarEnvironment and WarUnderlying conditionsUnderlying conditions––PovertyPoverty Development failure and environmentalDevelopment failure and environmental degradationdegradationPopulation growthPopulation growthIntensifying pressure on scarce resourcesIntensifying pressure on scarce resourcesMany instances worldMany instances world--widewideSystematic investigation to date (HomerSystematic investigation to date (Homer--Dixon) suggests linkage is not tightDixon) suggests linkage is not tightIndonesia—forest depletion India—population pressures, water China—water scarcity, arable land 7Environment and WarEnvironment and WarUnderlying conditions, continuedUnderlying conditions, continued ––PovertyPovertyDealt with by state capacityDealt with by state capacity Becomes an issue when states failBecomes an issue when states failState capacity to deal with elite competition and balance trade-offs Ingenuity at state level to negotiate pressures for de-centralization or sharing of power and potential rise in urban civil violence 8Environment and WarEnvironment and WarUnderlying conditions, continuedUnderlying conditions, continued––Arms availabilityArms availabilityDefinition of small armsDefinition of small armsNumbers in circulationNumbers in circulationMarketsMarketsMajor producers and exportersMajor producers and exportersDefinition of small arms: any weapon portable and usable by one to three persons (a.p.landmines included) Numbers in circulation: 500 million military-style arms in circulation (one for every 12 persons) Markets: Legal market $3-6 billion per year Illegal market $2-10 billion per year Major producers and exporters: China, Russia, U.S. 9Environment and WarEnvironment and WarUnderlying conditions, continuedUnderlying conditions, continued ––Arms availabilityArms availabilityRole in current warsRole in current wars––Main weapons in 46 of 49 conflicts assessedMain weapons in 46 of 49 conflicts assessed in 1990sin 1990s ––Casualties: 300,000 deaths/yr from woundsCasualties: 300,000 deaths/yr from wounds caused by small arms in conflictcaused by small arms in conflict––Casualties: 200,000 deaths/yr in peaceCasualties: 200,000 deaths/yr in peace--timetimeExceptions are Gulf War, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Kosovo/NATO (which are all classic nation state wars) 10Environment and WarEnvironment and WarUnderlying conditions,