MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 12The UN Framework Convention on Climate ChangeSlide 3Slide 4Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment ReportSlide 7Slide 8Model SensitivitySlide 10Emission ScenariosScenariosSlide 13Future Predictions: TemperatureSlide 16Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudesSome areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projectedSea LevelSea Level RiseSlide 23QuestionsEnergy and Climate ChangeSlide 26Slide 27Slide 28US CO2 EmissionsAverage US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)Slide 31Slide 32Mitigation of climate changeClimate Change ImpactsSlide 35The Kyoto ProtocolKyoto ProtocolSlide 38Slide 39Slide 40Slide 41Slide 42Slide 43Slide 44Slide 45Slide 46Slide 47Slide 48Slide 49Kyoto ProtocolSlide 51Slide 52Slide 53Slide 54Slide 55Kyoto TargetsSlide 57Slide 58Kyoto Targets: Developing countriesSlide 60The Kyoto MechanismsKyoto Protocol MechanismsEmissions TradingSlide 64Slide 66Slide 67Slide 68Slide 69Slide 70Slide 71Slide 72Slide 73Slide 75Slide 76What is Heat Wave?Slide 78Class ParticipationSlide 80Slide 81Slide 82MET 1121MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 12Controls on Climate ChangeProfessor Menglin JinOutline:Outline:IPCCCA Efforts on Energy Kyoto TreatThe UN Framework Convention on Climate Change‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’MET 1123Figure: Courtesy of IPCCClimate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisWGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment ReportSummary for Policymakers (SPM)Drafted by a team of 59Approved ‘sentence by sentence’by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)14 chapters881 pages120 Lead Authors515 Contributing Authors4621 References quotedMET 1126IPCC Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment ReportIPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).–Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling)(cooling)““The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”on global climate”(IPCC) 1997(IPCC) 1997"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activitiesactivities .“.“ (IPCC),(IPCC), 20012001 (IPCC) 2007MET 1127IPCC Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment ReportIPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).–Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling)(cooling)““The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”on global climate”(IPCC) 1997(IPCC) 1997"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activitiesactivities .“.“ (IPCC),(IPCC), 20012001The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.mid-20th century.(IPCC) 2007MET 1128The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures sincethe mid-20th century.”Human Responsibility forClimate ChangeSource: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.MET 1129Model SensitivityModels (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems. They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2–This means that different models give different answers to the same problem–Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.MET 11210Model SensitivityModels (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems. They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2– –Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.MET 11211Emission Scenarios SRES (special report on emission scenarios)MET 11212ScenariosMET 11213CO2 concentrations (amount)MET 11214Future Predictions: TemperatureMET 11216Notes on Temperature ProjectionsProjected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from ~1.4°C to ~5.8°C.Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.Each bar on right represent range of warming produced –by models of differing sensitivies for a specific scenario.MET 11218Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudesAnnual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oCMET 11220Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projectedAnnual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990MET 11221Sea LevelMET 11222Sea Level RiseAnnual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990MET 11223MET 112241. What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas?2. What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning?3. What