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4 elements of public opinion
- Direction: whether the public opinion is positive or negative (favorable or unfavorable) about an issue. - Stability: the likelihood of changes in the direction of public opinion. - Intensity: how strongly people hold the attitudes and beliefs is the intensity of public opinion - Salien…
Agents of political Socialization
1) Family - most influential 2) Schools & Education 3) Peers 4) Events & Experiences 5) The Mass media Political socialization is the process of acquiring political values from previous generations. These values help determine not only our ideology, but our opinions on specific issues.
Core American Values
1) 2) Political Equality - equal access to the political system, equality under the law. Less supportive of substantive equality. 3) Rule of Law - Constitution and democratic institutions are legitimate. Americans differ on how these values should be balanced.
How does random/non-random sampling work and why is it important?
- Random samples is one in which every person in the target population has an equal chance of being a poll respondent. - Non-random (biased) samples are inaccurate estimates of the true opinions and attitudes of the target population; straw polls, viewers voice polls Polls use a small gro…
What does the confidence interval mean?
The chance, measured in percent, that the results of a survey will fall within the boundaries set by the margin of error.
What is the margin of error & and how does it vary?
(Sometimes called the sampling error) is the amount by which the sample responses are likely to differ from those of the population within very tight boundaries that are known as the confidence level of a survey. pg 302 2000=2% 1000=3% 500=4.5% 250=6% 100=10%
What are the major threats to a survey's validity?
- Biased samples - straw polls, radio/internet/tv polls, viewer's voice polls etc. ex. Literary Digest poll in 1936. - Interviewer Bias - Question wording/framing - Non - attitudes
What are the formal (institutional barriers to voting)?
Must be... - 18 or over; A U.S. citizen; Mentally Sane; A non-felon - 15th amendment (1870) prohibited racial discrimination in voting, however the voting rights act (1964) and 24th amendment (1965) suspended poll taxes, grandfather clause, & literacy tests. - 19th amendment (1920) grant…
What are factors that enhance a person's likelihood of voting?
- High SES: more aware of political matters - Political Efficacy: people believe the gov't will respect and respond to their opinions. - Allegiant: people who have high trust in the gov't.
What are factors that diminish a person's likelihood of voting?
- Voting laws - Voter registration practices: - the two-party system - too many elections and bad timing
Is it rational to vote?
Yes because the citizen may have a material (have a direct financial stake), solidary (peer groups and family), and purposive benefit (commitment to democratic ideas). No because it takes time, education, and money to vote.
Changes in rates of participation across time.
In 1800s to 1900 voter turnout was very high. 1960's was very high. Participation declined in the 1970s-80s. Rebounded slightly in 2004 & 2008.
Paradox of Participation
There are private costs associated with participating. The benefit of choosing the "right" candidate is a public good. However, the probability of your vote affecting the outcome is virtually zero. The act of voting poses a collective action problem.
Rational ignorance: Is it rational for people to be informed?
Gathering information may help you make an informed choice, but doing this is costly. Also, what's the probability your informed choice will mater to the election outcome?
How do the costs of participation influence the substance of what's communicated to elected officials?
Since participation requires time, money, and education, it is not distributed evenly across the nation. Therefore, politicians only hear the voices of those who participate, which produces a bias in representation.
Incumbent Deterrence
Incumbents win because they deter strong challengers from contesting them - "power is power" If an incumbent can convince strong challengers that he is invincible, then only the weak challengers will challenge him.
Federal Elections Commision
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Federal Elections Commission (FEC)
Oversees all federal races (house, senate, presidency). Was borne out of the Watergate Scandal in 1974. Was created to set contribution limits by individuals, parties, and PAC's. Created by the FECA.
What did the Federal Election Campaign Act establish?
Caps on total amount a campaign could spend. Allowed Unions and Corporations to form PAC's.
What portions of the law have been upheld and struck down by the supreme court?
Buckley v. Valeo (1976) attacked the FECA as a violation of free speech. Court upheld restrictions on the size of campaign contributions, but struck down limits on candidate spending and independent expenditures.
Soft Money v Hard Money
Soft money is money raised by parties and PAC's w/o any restrictions or limits. Cannot be used to explicitly promote or defeat a candidate.
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (McCain-Feingold Act)
Main purpose was to ban money. Increased "hard money" contribution limits. Has not been very effective in limiting the influence of money in campaigns.
Who are the 527's?
Non-profit organizations exempt from paying income tax. They use money for issue advocacy to promote/defeat a candidate.
Duverger's Law
Duverger's law is a principle which asserts that a plurality rule election system tends to favor a two-party system.
Party Machines
Party machines were responsible for building a network of relationships on behalf of the party. Gave immigrants their needs in return for their votes.
Progressive era reforms
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