The United States and Russia have deconstructed both warheads, missiles & delivery platformsThe Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) offers an interesting model for disarmamentCWC Results to date1Uninventing the Bomb?2It is often argued that nuclear weapons “cannot be uninvented” and we must therefore learn to live with them and the threat they poseBut things get “uninvented” all the time, mostly via obsolescence or substitution or cost3Technologies serve social functions, which can be displaced, replaced, subsumed or abolished: obsolescence or redesign can also be important elements in this process4What is the social function of nuclear weapons?DeterrenceCompellanceDefenseIf these can be accomplished in other ways, why not abolish nuclear weapons? Some countries have done it.5Consider these cases: Sweden, Ukraine, South Africa6At the end of WWII, the Swedish government decided to acquire an atomic arsenal—in 1952, the decision was made to manufacture 10 plutonium bombsThe program was sponsored by the governing Social Democrats, but was kept secret because of opposition by party members.7The government and military believed, at first, that all first-rank states would need to acquire atomic weapons to be influentialAlthough Sweden steadfastly maintained its neutrality in the East-West conflict, it was believed that a small atomic force would also act as a deterrent—especially against the Soviets8Swedish military analysts also believed that the U.S. “nuclear umbrella”covered Sweden—even though nothing was ever said to this effectSweden’s primary security goal was to remain out of a European war9Eventually, the Swedish military came to realize that a few atomic weapons might be an “attractive nuisance” and provoke an early attack by the USSR in the event of a European warThe Social Democratic Party was also solidly against nuclear weapons—politics ultimately led Sweden to decide against pursuit of atomic weapons, without abandoning the technical capability10The breakup of the USSR in 1991 left four countries with strategic nuclear weapons: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan11In 1990, the Ukrainian parliament declared that Ukraine would never accept, produce or acquire nuclear weapons—but after independence in 1991, a debate began over what to do with the 180 strategic missiles left after the Soviet breakup12Ukraine returned some 3,000 tactical nuclear weapons to Russia (by 1992), but announced that it would retain operational control over the strategic weaponsRussia, and others, did not like this—and Ukraine did not really have independent launch control of the missiles13In 1994, the US, Russia and Ukraine agreed to transfer 200 nuclear warheads to Russia, in return for 100 tons of nuclear fuel for Ukraine and $60 million for Russia. By 1996, all the warheads were gone; in 1997, Ukraine agreed to destroy missiles and silos, too14South Africa voluntarily dismantled its six uranium bombs in 1991—but why did it have atomic bombs in the first place?South Africa is the world’s largest gold producer, and uranium is found in association with gold—this had both domestic and foreign political implicationsThe casings made for the atomic bombs and stored at Advena. These are probably unused casings for new bombs,since the Chicago Tribune reported on 2 May 1999 that pieces of the casings of the actual atomic bombs were beaten into miniature, ornamental plowshares, "suitable as gifts for inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency".15South Africa is at the southern end of the African “copper belt”—presumed to be a Soviet target during the 1970s and 1980s16Angola and Mozambique, in particular, established socialist governments at independence and fell immediately into civil war17The South Africans started to warn of a Soviet-led “resource war” against the West, spearheaded by Cubans, Africans, and the African National Congress—South Africa became deeply involved in the Angolan Civil WarThe atomic bombs would be used against “invaders”—whether foreign or domestic18TABLE 2.7 Uranium: proved reserves and annual production(conventional resources recoverable at up to US$130/kg)thousand tonnesReconverablereserves atup to US$130/kg end 1999Annualproduction 1999Algeria 26.0Central African Republic16.0Congo (Democratic Rep.)1.8Gabon 4.8 0.3Malawi 11.7Namibia 180.5 2.7Niger 71.1 2.9Somalia 6.6 NASouth Africa 292.8 1.1Zimbabwe 1.8Total Africa 613.1 7.0Production, 1999Source: Survey of Energy Resources 2001, WECSouth Africa’s uranium was discovered during WWII, and its nuclear research activities began in 1959, during the apartheid regime19The South African program began with a natural uranium reactor, but moved to uranium enrichment in 1967That same year, research into “peaceful nuclear explosives” was launched. Eventually, the program produced six gun-type weapons20In the late 1980s, President F.W. de Klerk decided to terminate the program, and in 1991 South Africa signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—was he concerned about a post-apartheid government with nukes?21Can we infer any insights from these three cases?• Politics trumps technology•A focus on technical details can obstruct political progress• The absence of nearby opponents reduces incentives to remain or go nuclear•Nuclear weapons breed insecurity and more weapons•Norms matter, especially in politics22The United States and Russia have deconstructed both warheads, missiles & delivery platformsThe United States has provided over 26,000 storage containers such as this one, to hold plutonium and HEU from dismantled nuclear weapons at the Mayak storage facility. Source: DOD23The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) offers an interesting model for disarmament• There are 188 signatories to the CWC; non-members include: Israel, Myanmar, Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Somalia, Syria• “The CWC aims to eliminate an entire category of weapons of mass destruction by prohibiting the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, retention, transfer or use of chemical weapons by States Parties. States Parties, in turn, must take the steps necessary to enforce that prohibition in respect of persons (natural or legal) within their jurisdiction.”• “All States Parties have agreed to chemically disarm by destroying any stockpiles of chemical weapons they may hold and any facilities which produced them, as well as any chemical weapons they abandoned on the