Nuclear Deterrence in PracticeThe vulnerability of cities, bombers & missiles during the 1950s was a point of major concernMoreover, was “massive retaliation” a credible threat?During early 1980s, there was renewed talk about nuclear war, which led toBallistic Missile Defense (BMD) dates back to the early days of the Cold WarIs there a nuclear strategy today?Nuclear Deterrence in PracticeThe vulnerability of cities, bombers & missiles during the 1950s was a point of major concern• If bombers could be caught on the ground…• If cities could be wiped out•If missiles could be targeted…• Both retaliation & will would be insufficient• Nuclear deterrence would not “work”•But this problem was never really solved—if it was a real problem…• With the “New Look,” the Eisenhower Administration threatened to launch full-scale war against Communist actions• Some thought it not credible to make such a threat in response to minor provocations• Thus was born “Flexible Response,” which envisioned escalatory tactics prior to the full thingMoreover, was “massive retaliation” a credible threat?By the early 1960s, U.S. missiles were becoming more accurate and could, perhaps, hit missile silosMcNamara proposed a “no cities strategy”—counterforce attacks only—which raised a political firestorm in 1962But the Nixon Administration struggled, once again, with “limited nuclear options” even as it negotiated arms control treaties with the USSR (SALT I & ABM Treaty)"To Have the Only Option That of Killing 80 Million People is the Height of Immorality" Henry Kissinger, 1973Nixon also launched a new ballistic missile program, first called “Sentinel,” then “Safeguard,” directed against China. Only one site was completed.After the fall of South Vietnam in 1975, U.S.-Soviet relations began to decline, once again. By the end of the decade, a new missile race had begunSoviet missiles were bigger & heavierConservatives worried that Soviet missiles could knock out the American arsenalThey lobbied for a new, heavier, multi-warhead missile, the “Missile Experimental” or MX, which would be moved around on trainsThey also organized the “Committee on the Present Danger” and a “Team B” review of the CIA’s analysis of Soviet strength and intentionsAround 1976, the USSR began to put IRBMs (SS-20s) in Eastern EuropeIt was feared this opened a “gap” in the ladder of extended deterrence, which had to be filled by NATO IRBMs: nuclear –armed Pershing II and cruise missilesDuring early 1980s, there was renewed talk about nuclear war, which led to• Revival of anti-nuclear movements• “Nuclear Freeze”• Films such as “The Day After” & “Red Dawn”• Catholic Bishop’s letter critical of MAD• Backpedaling by Reagan Administration• Strategic Defense Initiative• U.S.-Soviet negotiations: INF, Reykjavik summit, START I• And then 1989 and all that...“Through the SDI research program, I have called upon the great scientific talents of our country to turn to the cause of strengthening world peace by rendering ballistic missiles impotent and obsolete.” Ronald Reagan, 1984Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) dates back to the early days of the Cold War• BMD was never designed or intended to destroy all incoming missiles—since missing even as few as 10% would still result in enormous destruction•But the possibilitythat some fraction of an attack could be prevented might give an attacker pause• And, if missile silos could be defended, they would survive an attack and could be fired in retaliation• Thus, BMD becomes one more element in the uncertainty surrounding deterrenceIs there a nuclear strategy today?• Little expectation of a massive nuclear threat• Limited expectation of large-scale conventional war to be deterred• Asymmetric warfare and insurgencies not amenable to nuclear threats• Nuclear strikes against rogue facilities unlikely to succeed• And there are serious doubts that deterrence will continue to “work” as in the