LAST TIME• Population growth, distribution, and size in Latin America• Urbanization ¾Problems with urban growth continued• The urban economy• MigrationTODAY• Agricultural and Rural Development• Tropical DeforestationAgricultural and Rural Development: Internal Colonization of Tropical Lowlands• An example from Amazonia¾> 600 million ha¾Amazonian environmentsTerra firmeVárzaSavannaDevelopment history in Amazonia• Early extractive uses¾Rubber¾ForestryDevelopment history in Amazonia• “Spontaneous” peasant agricultural colonization¾Brazilian¾AndeanDevelopment history in Amazonia• Governmentally planned peasant colonization¾ highways¾ planning excessively centralized¾ Highway location bad for soils¾ geopolitical motives¾ domestic political motivesDevelopment history in Amazonia• Cattle ranching• Fishbone patternsDevelopment history in Amazonia• Scale & geography of change• Soil degradation on already poor soils• Poor rural health• Poor government planningDevelopment history in Amazonia• Consequences• Farm abandonment• Consolidation by cattle ranchers and large soy farmers• urbanizationAmazonian deforestation• Wider consequences¾in Brazil¾speculation and abandoned lands¾deforestation of rare tropical rain forest¾destruction of species¾destruction of Indigenous people’s traditional livelihood¾consequences for global warming¾fails to solve land tenure problem• Solutions?Tropical Deforestation• Deforestation ratesTropical Deforestation• Causes¾agricultural clearing¾pasture clearing¾timber harvesting¾oil exploration/extraction¾population growth?¾degradation of lands in source areas of migrants¾poor land tenure equity in source areas of migrants© T. M. WhitmorePopulation and Environmental Change in Latin America• 519 million people in 2000 (UN, 2001)• 30 year doubling time, 1970-2000. 1 billion by 2100?• Declining fertility, Rural out-migration (2% annually) andUrbanization, but…• Rapid forest clearing • Major impact of rural-rural migrants and pasture expansion© T. M. WhitmoreSignificanceEnvironmental ImpactsThe Amazon basin alone contains:1) the greatest extent of closed tropical forests in the world 2) 45% of all the fresh water on the Earth3) the planet’s largest carbon sink4) the planet’s most bio-diverse forestsHuman development Impacts• rural underdevelopment• food production© T. M. WhitmoreCentral America: Forest CoverSource: FAO, 2003© T. M. WhitmoreSouth America: Forest CoverSource: FAO, 2003© T. M. WhitmoreResultsCentral America1961-2001• 59% rural population increase (19 million)• 34%. rural population density increase.• 15% deforestation (13 million ha.)• Great temporal and geographic variation© T. M. Whitmore-68%-47%-40%87%51%1.20Panama-79%-51%-51%137%29%0.81Nicaragua-32%2%-6%39%21%0.78Mexico-56%5%-11%101%109%1.02Honduras-70%-46%-51%62%71%2.81Haiti-80%-62%-49%156%106%1.79Guatemala-66%-17%-49%51%8%2.51El Salvador59%109%100%26%-22%2.32Dominican Republic-72%-24%-45%98%81%1.76Costa Rica1961-20001981-20001961-20011961-20001961-20011961Change Forest/CapitaDeforestationRural Population ChangeRural Population DensityCENTRAL AMERICA© T. M. WhitmoreCentral America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land 12.9% 13.1%15.2%34.9%36.7%38.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1961 1981 2001© T. M. Whitmore2852223019.0417.7510.39Average293055.044.832.48Panama236044.386.371.53Nicaragua1870156119123.1522.1712.63Mexico1522865.604.653.38Honduras14606.827.823.02Haiti18389156.823.982.08Guatemala7388214.954.972.78El Salvador98581417.2311.9311.11Dominican Republic128721920.5712.975.42Costa RicaCentral America200119811961200119811961Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland)Percent A&P Land Irrigated© T. M. WhitmoreSouth America1961-2001• 62 million decrease in rural population (-6%)• rural population density nearly halved• 6% deforestation (12% weighted).© T. M. Whitmore19%38%26%6%-57%2.15Venezuela-46%-14%8%101%-48%1.50Paraguay -64%-35%-43%59%34%1.18Ecuador-30%-3%-16%20%40%1.76Colombia-7%-15%-18%-12%46%0.64Chile 23%20%-3%-21%-66%1.41Brazil-40%-13%-12%47%-32%1.49Bolivia-18%-39%-34%-19%-34%0.19Argentina1961-20001981-20001961-20011961-20001961-20011961Change Forest/CapitaDeforestationRural Population ChangeRural Population DensitySOUTH AMERICA© T. M. WhitmoreSouth America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land 4.6%8.4%7.7%23.9%26.3%30.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%1961 1981 2001© T. M. Whitmore1,170434547.394.744.89Average3001461916.878.3914.46Venezuela6790.62.153.093.70Paraguay231701128.9820.6517.53Ecuador6402807121.187.434.55Colombia4811144682.6122.7428.02Chile6,7732,7532704.382.591.73Brazil1270.84.264.444.99Bolivia86096164.464.553.45ArgentinaSouth America200119811961200119811961Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland)Percent A&P Land Irrigated© T. M. WhitmoreRevisiting hypothesesPopulation and Forest Clearing• Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND deforestation rates and deforestation rates per capita (rural). YES AND NOWhat are the land use drivers?• Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND cropland relative to pasture. YES and NO• Negative relation between rural population and population density AND relative agricultural intensification. YES© T. M. WhitmoreConclusion• Future food production: intensification and pasture expansion• Migration• Scale• Data limitations• Policy implicationsIn-migration ofColonistsFordlândia Jarí Area of high density of rubber treesUSGS© Roger J. Harris, 2001© Roger J. Harris, 2001© Roger J. Harris,