David A. Broniatowski ESD.71 Option Identification1. Define your professional fieldBriefly state the kinds of engineering systems in which you are interested, and thespecific kinds of designs you are or might be working on.I’m interested in space systems with a particular emphasis on those systems that can be used to develop infrastructure in and to explore space. I’m working on the design of a crew exploration system-of-systems that will enable astronauts to travel beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) into cis-lunar, and eventually, interplanetary, space.2. What are the Major Uncertainties associated with these designs?Identify the major uncertainties associated with the future performance of these designs.These define the contingencies for which it would be good to have some flexibility in thedeployment or evolution of the system.Space exploration faces multiple sources of uncertainty. A major uncertainty of exploration missions arises from the fact that one cannot know what one will find upon exploration. Therefore, it is not always clear what the next mission profile will include. Furthermore, the President’s Vision for Space Exploration states that humans will travel to the Moon, Mars and Beyond, but the timescale of this set of missions is unclear. Thus, politico-temporal uncertainty abounds. There is also an element of technological uncertainty. For example, new fuels or structural materials may be developed that can greatly reduced mass launched to orbit. Finally, all space missions are highly subject to budgetary uncertainty resulting from decisions made by Congress that may cut or raise the NASA budget. 3. Identify and specify a relevant “Real Option” “On” your systemDescribe the “option”Lunar regolith soil possesses significant amounts of oxygen and iron in the form of the mineral ilmenite. These resources have the potential to be used for construction materials,rocket fuel and breathable air. A crewed mission to the Moon may include a small processing plant that can take in lunar regolith and produce oxygen and iron slag as outputs. The “option” is the decision to bring this plant.and indicate specifically• What it is the system designer/operator/manager has the “right but not theobligation” to do?The astronauts have the right, but not the obligation, to produce excess oxygen and iron slag.• What has to be done to obtain this “right” (that is, what defines the cost of theoption)?Plants are generally heavy. The cost of this option include the cost of launching and bringing the plant, the costs of training astronauts in its use and the cost of developing theplant.• Correspondingly, what is the cost of actually taking the action (that is, whatdefines the strike price)?David A. Broniatowski ESD.71 Option IdentificationThe cost of taking the action is the effort required by the astronauts to set up the plant andinitiate production.• The period over which the option is valid.The option is valid for as long as astronauts are on the lunar surface with access to lunar regolith.4. Repeat (3) for an option "in” your system.Describe the “option”If humans are to explore the Moon, a landing site must be chosen. Since it is likely that multiple missions to the Moon will be undertaken, it is desirable to design a transfer vehicle that can land in multiple lunar locations. Using the trans-lunar injection scheme utilized in the Apollo program, it is only possible to land on the Moon’s equatorial regions. Landing on the lunar poles (which are sites of scientific interest) requires an fuel-intensive change of orbital plane. If a decision is made to stage rockets at the Earth-Moon Lagrangian Libration Point 1(EML1), the fuel required to travel to the lunar poles is significantly less. However, if the desired landing site is on the lunar equator, staging atthe EML1 requires more fuel than traveling directly to lunar-orbit, Apollo-style. The “option” is to allow for the ability to stage at EML1, thus requiring more fuel (and mass required to hold it) than an equatorial-only lander. and indicate specifically• What it is the system designer/operator/manager has the “right but not theobligation” to do?The designer of the mission gives the operator the right, but not the obligation, to enter a lunar polar orbit from EML1.• What has to be done to obtain this “right” (that is, what defines the cost of theoption)?In order to obtain this “right”, the designer must increase the mass of the transfer module’s fuel tank. The additional cost comes in added fuel required to launch the transfer module to orbit from the Earth’s surface, which may be translated into higher launch costs.• Correspondingly, what is the cost of actually taking the action (that is, whatdefines the strike price)?The cost of taking this action is the training and effort for the pilot’s maneuver required tochange the target lunar latitude from 0 degrees to polar.• The period over which the option is valid.The option is valid from the time the spacecraft arrives at EML1 until the time it leaves
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