David Diaz Dominguez Application Portfolio ESD.71 Engineering Systems Analysis for Design 12/08/2009 1 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Analyze Technology Options in Electric Vehicle Infrastructure ESD.71 Engineering System Analysis for Design David Diaz Dominguez 12/8/2009 David Diaz Dominguez Application Portfolio ESD.71 Engineering Systems Analysis for Design 12/08/2009 2 Table of contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Background................................................................................................................................................... 3 System description ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Business ecosystem.................................................................................................................................. 3 EV Charging Methods / Standards............................................................................................................ 4 EV infrastructure system ..........................................................................................................................5 Elements of uncertainty ............................................................................................................................... 5 Fixed and Flexible designs .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Fixed design: Charging site with Level II charging stations ........................Error! Bookmark not defined. Flexible design: Charging site with upgradeable stations ..........................Error! Bookmark not defined. Decision Tree analysis ....................................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. Lattice analysis ........................................................................................................................................... 11 Overall conclusions..................................................................................................................................... 17 References:................................................................................................................................................. 18 David Diaz Dominguez Application Portfolio ESD.71 Engineering Systems Analysis for Design 12/08/2009 3 Analyze Technology Options for EV Infrastructure Abstract This Application Portfolio analyzes the effect of using flexibility in the design of dedicated charging stations for Electric Vehicles to improve the NPV (Net Present Value) of the project when facing uncertainty in demand. A Fixed and a Flexible design are compare d in two different set ups: a two stage analysis using decision analysis theory and a multi‐state Lattice model with dynamic programming. In both set ups, the flexible design yields better outcomes. Background The concern about the environmental impact of automotive vehicle emissions as well as the increase in fossil fuel prices has boosted the development of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV’s). Automakers like Renault‐Nissan, GM, Toyota and Ford have announced that BEV’s will be important pieces in their portfolios in the near future. Also, most OEM automakers have shown at least a concept vehicle with this tech nology. Current designs show that autonomy and cost will be the key factors to the success of this solution. Most of the full EV working prototypes have around 100 miles autonomy per charge, which seems to be good for short commutes and city driving duties. Other studies suggest that 80% of the potential EV owners will need to charge their vehicles more than once per day. Governments are also concerned abo ut sustainability and are fostering projects to develop technologies that are eco‐friendly. In some countries, tax incentives were applied to vehicles that use alternative sources of energy and hybrids. It seems that governments would be supporters of the development of infrastructure for electric vehicles. In the industry side some companies have recognized the business opportunity of creating and managing EV infrastructure. Companies like Better Place or Coulomb Technologies have started to develop integral solutions for this network of charging stations. Deployment of EV infrastructure is expected to be in the form of home installations, parking lots, restaurants, hotels and dedicated stations. System description Business ecosystem The most important players in the business ecosystem in the Electric Vehicle industry are: David Diaz Dominguez Application Portfolio ESD.71 Engineering Systems Analysis for Design 12/08/2009 4 • EV Infrastructure Integrators – Provide an integral service to the end user (EV owner) by managing a network of charging facilities at homes, public/private buildings and dedicated charging stations. • EV infrastructure manufacturers – These companies have developed the technology to charge EV vehicles using different methods. Some of the products offered are: home charging stations, public charging stations and couplers. • Automotive OEM’s – In addition to producing EV’s, this sector will be defining the charging standards (port configuratio n and methods) and selecting the battery technology. Also, Automotive OEM’s will be defining the autonomy of the vehicle. • Battery Manufacturers – The technology used in batteries will determine autonomy and charging speed. • Energy industry/Utilities – It is likely th at consumer adoption will depend on the cost of ownership of EV vehicles. The cost of electricity and its generation method (fossil fuels vs. renewable energy) will be important. • Government – Through incentives, sponsorship and investment, the government can facilitate the adoption of EV vehicles. Government will be important in the deployment of charging infrastructure (in public facilities). • Other businesses that provide EV charging service – Owners of hotels, restaurants, entertainment