Subtotals =List of FiguresList of TablesAbstractIntroductionA Space Station with “Options”Variable of InterestSystem Design LeversUncertainties in the Assembly and Supply of Space StationsLaunch Vehicle Flight Rate:Launch Vehicle Success Rate:Annual Space Station Assembly and Supply Budget:Externally Decreed Scope Changes:Decision Analysis of Space Station Assembly and Supply AlternativesExpected Value of A2Binomial Lattice Modeling of Space Shuttle Flight Rates and Payload ReturnSubtotals =Subtotals =Subtotals =OPTION VALUE LATTICECREW SIZE LATTICEExpected Value of A2ConclusionsBibliographyAppendix 1: Additional Launch Vehicle StatisticsAppendix 2: Hypothetical Path-Dependent OutcomesAn Engineering Systems Analysis of Space Station Assembly and SupplyBrandon D. OwensESD.71 – Engineering Systems Analysis for DesignApplication PortfolioDec. 5, 2006ESD.71 Application Portfolio Brandon D. OwensTable of Contents1List of Figures .................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... iii Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 2 A Space Station with “Options” ................................................................................... 2 Variable of Interest ........................................................................................................ 2 System Design Levers .................................................................................................... 2 Uncertainties in the Assembly and Supply of Space Stations ........................................ 3 Launch Vehicle Flight Rate: ......................................................................................... 3 Launch Vehicle Success Rate: ....................................................................................... 5 Annual Space Station Assembly and Supply Budget: ................................................ 7 Externally Decreed Scope Changes: ............................................................................. 8 Decision Analysis of Space Station Assembly and Supply Alternatives ....................... 9 Binomial Lattice Modeling of Space Shuttle Flight Rates and Payload Return ........ 23 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 33 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 35 Appendix 1: Additional Launch Vehicle Statistics ....................................................... 36 Appendix 2: Hypothetical Path-Dependent Outcomes ................................................. 40 1 The images in the collage on the cover page of the International Space Station at different points in its assembly are available at http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/home/index.htmlPage iESD.71 Application Portfolio Brandon D. OwensList of FiguresFigure 1. The historical turnaround time after each Space Shuttle flight...........................4Figure 2. The historical turnaround time after each Soyuz flight.......................................5Figure 3. The historical success rating Space Shuttle missions...........................................6Figure 4. The historical success rating Soyuz missions.......................................................7Figure 5. Decision Tree for the Space Station Assembly Alternatives............................17Figure 6. Expected launch rate throughout the time period analyzed...............................24Figure 7. The probability distribution of outcomes for the annual Space Shuttle launch rate outcomes.....................................................................................................................26Figure 8. The historical turnaround time after each Progress flight.................................36Figure 9. The historical turnaround time after each Proton flight....................................37Figure 10. The historical turnaround time after each Ariane V flight..............................38Figure 11. The historical success rating Proton missions.................................................39Figure 12. The historical success rating Ariane V missions.............................................39Page iiESD.71 Application Portfolio Brandon D. OwensList of TablesTable 1. Statistical parameters for the time to turn around the Space Shuttle after each mission.................................................................................................................................4Table 2. Statistical parameters for the time to turn around the Soyuz after each mission..5Table 3. The Space Shuttle program budget FY1993-2003 (in millions of dollars)..........8Table 4. Assumed launch vehicle parameters for decision analysis.................................13Table 5. A classification of ISS segments.......................................................................13Table 6. The historical annual flight rate of the Space Shuttle.........................................14Table 7. Flight data and statistical parameters of the annual Space Shuttle flight rate during “normal” years........................................................................................................15Table 8. The number of missions resulting from each combination of events in the decision analysis................................................................................................................18Table 9. The possible outcomes in the decision analysis..................................................18Table 10. The probabilities of each of the possible events in the decision analysis.........19Table 11. The expected value of each alternative.............................................................21Table 12. The value of the option when compared to Alternative 1 over
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